Today's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed upside surprises across the September ISM and August construction spending reports that add upside risk to our forecasts for an Irma-depressed 120k September nonfarm payroll rise and a 3.0% growth rate for Q3 GDP. For the ISM, analysts saw a headline pop to a 13-year high of 60.8 from a 6-year high of 58.8 in August, as all the producer sentiment surveys are showing a sharp rise with the hurricane rebuild to new cycle-highs. The jobs index also rose, to a 6-year high of 60.3 in September from a prior 6-year high of 59.9. For construction, analysts saw a 0.5% August rise after upward revisions across the private construction components, though public construction was revised down sharply, and analysts now have a new cycle-low for that measure in July before a 0.7% August bounce.