Michigan sentiment posted a surprising surge to a 13-year high
Michigan sentiment posted a surprising surge to a 13-year high of 101.1 from 95.1 in September and 96.8 in August, following a prior 13-year high of 98.5 from January. The Michigan sentiment pop defied headwinds from the triple hurricanes, and the final figures may face a hit from the California fires. For other surveys, the IBD/TIPP index fell to 50.3 from 53.4 in September and 52.2 in August, but a lower 50.2 in July, versus a 56.4 cycle-high in February. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index slipped to a 49.7 average in the first two weeks of October from a 51.2 average in September and a 52.5 monthly cycle-high in August, versus a weekly cycle-high 53.3 in late-August. Analysts expect an October consumer confidence rise to 120.0 from 119.8 September, versus a 16-year high of 124.9 in March. Confidence, producer sentiment and small business optimism have climbed since October of 2016 in the face of a factory rebound that is trimming excess capacity, equity and home price gains, and fiscal policy relief. The rise has defied restraint in GDP growth from ongoing inventory weakness.