Canada retail sales preview
Canada retail sales preview: Analysts expect sales to rise 0.5% m/m in August after the 0.4% gain in July. Dealer vehicle sales (not adjusted for seasonality) were elevated in August, suggesting a firm showing for vehicle sales in the retail sales report. CPI implies a boost on retail sales values from modestly rising prices. And gasoline prices jumped 2.9% m/m in August after not changing (+0.2% m/m) in July, suggesting gasoline station sales will provide a solid boost to total and ex-autos retail sales. Hence, analysts'd put a touch of upside risk to our estimate. The exclusion of vehicle sales should leave a 0.3% gain in August sales. Retail sales volumes expanded in every month from January to June of this year before dipping 0.2% in July. Analysts expect the uptrend to resume with a modest gain in August. Our projection for August GDP is currently 0.1% after the flat reading in July. That would leave growth running at 2.1% pace (q/q, saar) for Q3 after the 4.5% real GDP gain seen in the Q2 GDP report. View the preview.