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LLY

Eli Lilly

$87.81

0.5841 (0.67%)

, INCY

Incyte

$114.19

-0.08 (-0.07%)

14:44
10/23/17
10/23
14:44
10/23/17
14:44

On The Fly: What to watch in Eli Lilly earnings report

Eli Lilly (LLY) is scheduled to report results of its third fiscal quarter before the market open on Tuesday, October 24, with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 am EDT. What to watch for: 1. COMPANY RAISES EPS, REVENUE GROWTH VIEW: Along with its second quarter report, the drug giant raised its 2017 EPS view to $4.10-$4.20 from $4.05-$4.15. Consensus estimates for FY17 EPS is 4.16. The company also raised its yearly revenue view to $22B-$22.5B from $21.8B-$22.3B versus a consensus estimate of $5.52B. 2. DEVELOPMENT DISAPPOINTMENTS: Since its last quarterly financial report in late July, Lilly had a couple of setbacks in its development programs. The first came on July 25, when Eli Lilly and Incyte (INCY) announced that a re-submission to the FDA for the NDA, for baricitinib, a once-daily oral medication for the treatment of moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis, will be delayed beyond 2017. On the heels of the NDA delay for baricitinib, Leerink analyst Seamus Fernandez downgraded Eli Lilly to Market Perform from Outperform, citing intense competition and saying that the regulatory update for Olumiant removes upside optionality in rheumatoid arthritis and possibly other indications given concerns over thrombosis risk. The analyst also lowered his price target on the shares to $90 from $93. The next disappointment came on October 10, when the drugmaker said its drug to treat non-small cell lung cancer failed to meet its primary goal in a clinical trial. Eli Lilly said at the time that its Phase 3 JUNIPER study evaluating Verzenio for advanced non-small cell lung cancer failed to meet the primary goal of improving overall survival. The late-stage study was comparing the drug with erlotinib, a drug made by Roche (RHHBY), in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer with gene mutations whose cancer has progressed despite initial therapies. 3. STREAMLINING PLANS: On September 7, Eli Lilly announced actions to streamline operations to more efficiently focus resources on developing new medicines and to improve its cost structure. Global workforce reductions, including those from a U.S. voluntary early retirement program, are expected to impact approximately 3,500 positions, said the company at the time. the restructuring will include evaluation of necessary adjustments to the workforce, with the goal of continued investment in new medicines and growth. 4. CONCERNS: On October 10, Eli Lilly was downgraded at Credit Suisse and an analyst at BMO Capital said he has concerns about its results in fiscal 2019 and 2020. Credit Suisse analyst Vamil Divan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform and kept an $88 price target on shares. Divan told clients that he sees "limited drivers" of further upside and that the valuation looks "full" with shares up 13% since mid-August. Divan expects Lilly's sales growth to be flat in 2018, due to patent expirations, before returning to growth. Commenting specifically on Verzenio, Divan said he expects a slower ramp up for the drug following the FDA approval given competition in that space. BMO Capital analyst Alex Arfaei, who has an Underperform rating on Lilly and raised his price target to $73 from $71, told clients on October 10, that he expects the drugmaker to have a "good" third quarter and finish the year at the high end of guidance, but he has "concerns" about 2019 and 2020 given continued price erosion for Humalog and volume erosion for Humulin, among other reasons, adding that a slower-than-expected Verzenio launch is a "near-term risk."

LLY

Eli Lilly

$87.81

0.5841 (0.67%)

INCY

Incyte

$114.19

-0.08 (-0.07%)

RHHBY

Roche

$29.73

-0.685 (-2.25%)

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LLY Eli Lilly
$87.81

0.5841 (0.67%)

10/18/17
SBSH
10/18/17
UPGRADE
Target $72
SBSH
Buy
Merck upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi
Citi analyst Andrew Baum upgraded Merck (MRK) to Buy and raised his price target for the shares to $72 from $65. The healthcare giant closed yesterday down 12c to $63.22. While Merck's non-Keytruda business continues to erode, the market is undervaluing both the ultimate patient derived xenograft market size and Merck's likely market share with Keytruda, Baum tells investors in a research note. The analyst revised his initial PDx market estimates of $35bn to at least $50bn and increased his 2025 Keytruda forecasts from $9B to$15B. The analyst prefers Eli Lilly (LLY), Bristol-Myers (BMY) and Merck among the U.S. pharmaceutical majors. He also downgraded Roche (RHHBY) this morning to Neutral.
10/10/17
BMOC
10/10/17
NO CHANGE
Target $73
BMOC
Underperform
Eli Lilly to have good Q3, but concerns remain for FY19-20, says BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Alex Arfaei says Eli Lilly will have a good Q3, ending FY17 at the top end of guidance. However, Arfaei contends that longer-term concerns remain warranted because of price and volume erosion for insulin drug Humulin and slower growth of type-2 diabetes drug Jardiance. The analyst maintains his Underperform rating on Eli Lilly, raising his price target to $73 from $71.
10/10/17
10/10/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. HSBC (HSBC) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse with analyst Sanjay Jain citing valuation. 2. Jabil Circuit (JBL) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman Sachs with analyst Mark Delaney saying street expectations, which assume Jabil's earnings grow double digits year-over-year for both of the next two years, are overly optimistic. 3. Carlyle Group (CG) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi with analyst William Katz citing valuation with the shares up 60% year-to-date. 4. Eli Lilly (LLY) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse with analyst Vamil Divan saying the valuation looks full with the shares up 13% since mid-August. 5. Ralph Lauren (RL) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Miller Tabak. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
10/16/17
JEFF
10/16/17
NO CHANGE
Target $115
JEFF
Buy
Jefferies ups price target on top global pick AbbVie to $115
Jefferies analyst Jeffrey Holford keeps AbbVie (ABBV) as his top global Pharmaceuticals pick for October, followed by Roche (RHHBY), Novartis (NVS), Bayer (BAYRY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Eli Lilly (LLY) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). The analyst raised his price target for AbbVie shares to $115 from $107 and keeps a Buy rating on the name. Among his other target changes include bumping Eli Lilly's to $100 from $96.
INCY Incyte
$114.19

-0.08 (-0.07%)

10/09/17
LEER
10/09/17
NO CHANGE
LEER
Leerink not worried about JAK safety, AbbVie '494 profile so far 'ok'
Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges notes that the delayed approval of Incyte (INCY)/Eli Lilly (LLY) baricitinib and the reported thromboembolic events in AbbVie's (ABBV) ABT494/upadacitinib trials have called into question the safety of oral Janus kinase, or JAK, inhibitors. The analyst says that his detailed review of the safety literature suggests that these medicines offer an acceptable risk/benefit profile for serious inflammatory diseases and do not confer a significant increase in cardiovascular risk or venous thromboembolic events. Further, Porges continues to believe AbbVie's upadacitinib and Gilead's (GILD) filgotinib will be approved for serious inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease, and will capture the majority share of his peak risk-adjusted $12B estimated JAK market.
09/25/17
RHCO
09/25/17
NO CHANGE
Target $19
RHCO
Buy
NewLink collaboration with AstraZeneca a validation, says SunTrust
SunTrust analyst Peter Lawson said NewLink Genetics' (NLNK) newly-announced collaboration with AstraZeneca (AZN) is the first "big pharma" partnership for NewLink's lead IDO pathway inhibitor. The deal adds external validation to an asset that is "trading at a fraction" of Incyte's IDO, said Lawson, who keeps a Buy rating and $19 price target on NewLink shares.
09/15/17
MSCO
09/15/17
NO CHANGE
Target $86
MSCO
Equal Weight
Morgan Stanley says baricitinib efficacy could be better if trial design changed
Morgan Stanley analyst David Risinger said Eli Lilly (LLY) and partner Incyte's (INCY) efficacy data from a Phase 2 study of baricitinib in atopic dermatitis looks inferior to competitors' "on the surface," but he contends that a steroid run-in period and usage during trial makes cross-trial comparison difficult. He thinks better efficacy is likely in Phase 3 if Lilly changes the trial design; however, if it does not, it could "end up being a commercial liability," Risinger tells investors. He keeps an Equal Weight rating and $86 price target on Eli Lilly shares.
10/06/17
GSCO
10/06/17
INITIATION
Target $160
GSCO
Buy
Incyte initiated with a Buy at Goldman Sachs
Goldman analyst Salveen Richter resumed coverage on Incyte with a Buy and $160 price target.
RHHBY Roche
$29.73

-0.685 (-2.25%)

10/18/17
SBSH
10/18/17
DOWNGRADE
SBSH
Neutral
Roche downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi
Citi analyst Andrew Baum downgraded Roche to Neutral and removed the shares from his firm's Focus List. Roche's rate of progress in the immuno-oncology field have underperformed, Baum tells investors in a research note. He's also concerned that the impact of biosimilars in Europe will prove more negative to Roche's profits than consensus estimates reflect. The analyst lowered his price target for the shares to SFR 255 from SFR 280.
10/18/17
10/18/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Chevron (CVX) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Societe Generale and to Market Perform on valuation at BMO Capital. 2. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray with analyst Erinn Murphy saying her firm's Fall teen survey indicated spending declines in color cosmetics among all female teens. 3. Chipotle (CMG) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill with analyst Gregory Francort saying he believes Chipotle has down a "very good job" managing labor costs but expects further gains to be difficult, combined with the tough sales backdrop, will limit further margin expansion. 4. Roche (RHHBY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi with analyst Andrew Baum saying Roche's rate of progress in the immuno-oncology field have underperformed. 5. Blackhawk (HAWK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.

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$1.18

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