Action Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: how time flies. It's been one year since Mr. Trump was elected and there have been some big changes over those twelve months. Growth has improved noticeably, while inflation has remained largely dormant. Stocks have posted double digit gains (USD basis). Yields have generally risen, albeit moderately. Various central banks have embarked on normalization paths. New faces have joined the FOMC. Meanwhile, there are only 45 days left until Christmas, and 52 days until 2018, with much still to be done. Much of the focus will be on Washington and tax reform. But data picks up again after the small respite this week. Inflation, consumption, and production reports headline, though many are still compromised by the disaster distortions and are not likely to alter the outlook. The Survey Medians show small increases in October PPI and CPI, with headline indexes for each at 0.1%, and 0.2% for the core readings. Retail sales are projected edging up 0.1% overall, with a 0.3% gain excluding autos in October. Industrial production should rise 0.5% in October, with capacity utilization at 76.3%. The Fed is unanimously expected to hike 25 bps in December, with most forecasters expecting no change through Q1 2018.