Deutsche Bank analyst David Begleiter estimates Axalta Coating (AXTA) shares would be worth $45 in a merger of equals deal with AkzoNobel (AKZOY). The analyst believes a merger of equals makes sense, saying it would allow Axalta shareholders to share in the upside from costs savings and sales synergies at the new entity as well as operational improvement at Akzo. If Axalta were to be acquired by Akzo or someone else, its board would likely seek a valuation similar to what Sherwin-Williams (SHW) paid for Valspar, or around $41 per share, Begleiter tells investors in a research note titled "Merger Value Could be in the $40s." The analyst keeps a Hold rating on Axalta with a standalone price target of $32.

Citi analyst P.J. Juvekar expects "significant downward pressure" today in shares of Axalta Coating (AXTA) after AkzoNobel (AKZOY) confirmed that it has walked away from merger talks. When the initial news hit, Axalta shares jumped 17%, or nearly $5 per share, and since then are up another 2%, Juvekar tells investors in a research note. His bear case scenario for the shares if the deal did not happen is $28, or 10.8 times his 2018 EBITDA estimate. The analyst, however, thinks Axalta remains a potential acquisition target given the ongoing consolidation of the paints industry. He still thinks the involvement of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) 10% owner, "is a wildcard." Nonetheless, Juvekar remains concerned about the company's near-term fundamentals and keeps a Neutral rating on Axalta with a $34 price target.

RBC Capital analyst Arun Viswanathan raised his price target on Axalta Coating (AXTA) to $37 and kept his Outperform rating after Q3 results. While the company missed its EBITDA target, the analyst notes that double-digit growth in 2018 should be "very achievable" as distributor refinish destocking issues are now in the past. Viswanathan adds that his higher valuation forecast is also based on recent talks about a potential tie-up with AkzoNobel (AKZOY).