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ULTA

Ulta Beauty

$221.71

-1.39 (-0.62%)

, EL

Estee Lauder

$124.71

-0.12 (-0.10%)

10:41
12/01/17
12/01
10:41
12/01/17
10:41

Ulta Beauty drops as quarterly guidance falls short of estimates

Shares of Ulta Beauty (ULTA) dropped in morning trading after the beauty retailer issued fourth quarter guidance that missed analyst expectations. Ulta beat on third quarter earnings per share and posted revenue that matched expectations. EARNINGS: After the market close on Thursday, Ulta reported third quarter EPS of $1.70, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $1.67, on revenue of $1.34B, meeting the consensus forecast. Comparable store sales were up 10.3% in the quarter, including e-commerce, driven by 6% transaction growth and 4.3% growth in average ticket. The company said that Hurricanes Harvey and Irma resulted in approximately $14M in lost sales for the quarter and approximately 100 basis points of negative impact to comp sales. E-commerce sales jumped 62.9% to $119.8M in Q3, from $73.6M last year. CEO Mary Dillon noted that Ulta faced a "moderation" in the growth rate of makeup, its largest category, and a "meaningful disruption" from the hurricanes in Q3. Looking ahead, Ulta forecast Q4 EPS of $2.73-$2.78, missing estimates of $2.84, on revenue of $1.926B-$1.959B, against the consensus of $1.93B. Comp sales for Q4 are expected to be up 8%-10% including e-commerce vs. an increase of 16.6% in the year-ago period. Despite the weaker than expected Q4 guidance, Ulta backed its fiscal year 2017 EPS view of growth in the high twenties percentage range, including the impact of the hurricanes and other items. Ulta also expects to achieve comp sales growth of 10%-11%, including e-commerce, and e-commerce sales growth of 50%-60%. WHAT'S NOTABLE: On October 18, Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy downgraded Ulta, citing a survey showing a slowdown in beauty spending by teenagers. Murphy said her firm's Fall 2017 Teen Survey results indicated spending declines of 13% in color cosmetics among all female teenagers. While skincare declines were "less bad," down 7% year-over-year, overall beauty wallet was down low-double digits. ANALYST COMMENTARY: Following Ulta's earnings report, RBC Capital, Wells Fargo, Cowen and Morgan Stanley all cut their respective price targets for Ulta shares. Loop Capital analyst Anthony Chukumba, however, said Ulta's results were impressive given the negative impact from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, adding that the gross margin decline was largely related to those events. JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers noted that management re-committed to 20%-plus earnings growth in 2018 and believes this "will likely stave off what could have been a tough day for the stock" given the 110 basis point decline in gross margin for Q3. Jefferies analyst Stephanie Wissink said Ulta's earnings report was "positive" for Estee Lauder (EL), as MAC and Clinique were cited as major contributors to the company's 10.3% reported comp. PRICE ACTION: Ulta Beauty is down over 6% in morning trading to $208.25. Year-to-date, shares are down over 18%. Peer Sally Beauty (SBH) is also fractionally lower this morning.

ULTA

Ulta Beauty

$221.71

-1.39 (-0.62%)

EL

Estee Lauder

$124.71

-0.12 (-0.10%)

SBH

Sally Beauty

$17.01

-0.04 (-0.23%)

ULTA Ulta Beauty
$221.71

-1.39 (-0.62%)

12/01/17
RBCM
12/01/17
NO CHANGE
Target $225
RBCM
Sector Perform
Ulta Beauty price target lowered to $225 from $250 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Brian Tunick lowered his price target on Ulta Beauty to $225 after yesterday's earnings, saying that while comps were in line with lowered expectations, the gross margin decline was the "sticking point" of the report amid unfavorable product shift and loyalty program promotions. Tunick keeps his Sector Perform rating, noting that although the company can maintain its EPS growth rate, the upside in the stock may be limited on slowing fundamentals of beauty product category growth.
12/01/17
WELS
12/01/17
NO CHANGE
Target $220
WELS
Market Perform
Ulta Beauty price target lowered to $220 from $242 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow lowered his price target for Ulta Beauty to $220 saying that while the Q3 comps were "robust" once again, last night marked the second straight quarter the company did not beat its comp plan. The analyst, however, believes the larger issue is Ulta missing its gross margin plan for the third time in the past four quarters. The shares will remain "under some pressure as the market grapples with how to value this growth story which is clearly transitioning into a more stable profile," Boruchow tells investors in a post-earnings research note. He keeps a Market Perform rating on Ulta Beauty.
12/01/17
JPMS
12/01/17
NO CHANGE
Target $270
JPMS
Overweight
JPMorgan sees only 'modest pressure' for Ulta Beauty shares
JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers believes shares of Ulta Beauty will only see "modest pressure" today given that the company reported better than guided comps ex-hurricane in Q3 and provided an outlook for relatively improved merchandise margin performance. Further, management re-committed to 20%-plus earnings growth in 2018, Horvers tells investors in a post-earnings research note. He believes these "will likely stave off what could have been a tough day for the stock" given the 110 basis point decline in gross margin for Q3. The analyst keeps an Overweight rating on Ulta Beauty with a $270 price target. The shares in premarket trading are down 6% to $207.66.
12/01/17
MSCO
12/01/17
NO CHANGE
Target $235
MSCO
Equal Weight
Ulta Beauty price target lowered to $235 after 'mixed bag' Q3 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman said Ulta Beauty offered a "mixed bag" in terms of its Q3 results, with in-line comparable sales growth but much weaker gross margins than it has had in some time. The analyst, who said competitive pressures seem to be intensifying, lowered his price target on Ulta to $235 from $245 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares.
EL Estee Lauder
$124.71

-0.12 (-0.10%)

12/01/17
JEFF
12/01/17
NO CHANGE
Target $140
JEFF
Buy
Ulta Beauty earnings report positive for Estee Lauder, says Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Stephanie Wissink says Ulta Beauty's (ULTA) Q3 earnings report last night had positive read-throughs for Estee Lauder (EL), as MAC and Clinique were cited as major contributors to the company's 10.3% reported comp. The reception to MAC in stores has been strong and Ulta hinted at further expansion in 2018, Wissink tells investors in a research note. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on Estee Lauder with a $140 price target.
11/02/17
BMOC
11/02/17
NO CHANGE
Target $126
BMOC
Market Perform
Estee Lauder price target raised to $126 from $107 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Shannon Coyne raised her price target on Estee Lauder to $126 and kept her Market Perform rating after Q1 results. Coyne says the "exceptional" earnings print was driven by stronger-than-expected top-line growth in China, travel retail, and Skincare. The analyst notes weaker performance in the Americas however, as U.S. mall-based brick & mortar sales environment remains challenging. Coyne also warns that sales and earnings growth may decelerate in the second half of FY18.
11/02/17
KEYB
11/02/17
NO CHANGE
Target $135
KEYB
Overweight
Estee Lauder price target raised to $135 from $115 at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Jason Gere raised his price target for Estee Lauder to $135 from $115 on valuation following quarterly results. The analyst sees Estee Lauder as a best-in-class operator worthy of its premium multiple, Further, he still sees potential upside to numbers as Asian momentum continues, and believes Americas trends can stabilize sooner rather than later. The company's flexibility with Leading Beauty Forward savings lends to both maintaining top-line growth and delivering double-digit EPS growth, he contends. Gere reiterates an Overweight rating on the shares.
11/02/17
DADA
11/02/17
NO CHANGE
Target $125
DADA
Neutral
Estee Lauder price target raised to $125 from $115 at DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Linda Bolton Weiser raised her price target on Estee Lauder to $125 on a "strong" Q1 result, the likelihood of a "conservative" guidance for Q2, and expectations of an improved outlook for organic sales in FY18. Weiser maintain a Neutral rating on Estee Lauder, noting that the company's valuation looks expensive despite the upward guidance revision. The analyst also expects travel retail industry to decelerate in the second half of FY18 and comps to struggle relative to high rates of the prior year.
SBH Sally Beauty
$17.01

-0.04 (-0.23%)

11/16/17
DADA
11/16/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $16
DADA
Neutral
Sally Beauty downgraded to Neutral at DA Davidson on lower SSS growth
As reported earlier, DA Davidson analyst Linda Bolton Weiser downgraded Sally Beauty to Neutral from Buy and lowered her price target to $16 from $21. Weiser cites below consensus SSS in terms of both reported Q4 and FY18 outlook, adding that declines in EBITDA may also weigh on the company's share buybacks at some point. The analyst also adjusts her model to forecast long term comps at flat to down from flat to up.
11/16/17
BMOC
11/16/17
NO CHANGE
Target $16
BMOC
Market Perform
Sally Beauty price target lowered to $16 from $21 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Shannon Coyne lowered the price target on Sally Beauty to $16 following Q4 revenue miss, saying the quarter was in part impacted by the hurricane activity. While the management's commitment to update the company's technology and CRM capabilities is encouraging, writes the analyst, execution risk looms for FY18 amid ongoing challenges of improving traffic trends. The analyst keeps Market Perform rating on Sally Beauty.
11/16/17
COWN
11/16/17
NO CHANGE
Target $18
COWN
Outperform
Sally Beauty price target lowered to $18 from $24 at Cowen
Cowen analyst Oliver Chen lowered his price target on Sally Beauty to $18 from $24 following the company's earnings report, citing execution issues and the impact of the hurricanes. The analyst expects the company to refocus on execution and to accelerate its e-commerce investment to help drive accessibility to brands and capture incremental customers. Chen maintained his Outperform rating on Sally Beauty shares.
11/16/17
DADA
11/16/17
DOWNGRADE
DADA
Neutral
Sally Beauty downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson

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