Today's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed a stronger than expected October construction spending report, and only a tiny November downtick in the ISM index that was in keeping with the remarkably robust path for producer sentiment. For construction analysts saw a 1.4% October rise after upward revisions due entirely to public construction, and the mix implied a boost in Q3 GDP growth to 3.4% from 3.3%, though analysts left our Q4 GDP estimate at 2.4% and marked down our residential construction forecasts for Q4 alongside boosts for public and nonresidential spending. For the ISM analysts saw a downtick to a still-robust 58.2 from 58.7 in October and a 13-year high of 60.8 in September, while the jobs component fell only slightly to 59.7 from 59.8 in October, leaving upside risk for our 260k November nonfarm payroll estimate. The November vehicle sales figures are being released through the day, and analysts expect a 3% drop to a still-firm 17.5 M rate, leaving only a modest two-month unwind of the cycle-high 18.5 M hurricane-boosted September pace.