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NAV

Navistar

$44.58

0.44 (1.00%)

, WBC

Wabco

$148.28

1.37 (0.93%)

15:54
01/04/18
01/04
15:54
01/04/18
15:54

Strong December Class 8 truck orders should be viewed positively, says Stifel

Stifel analyst Michael Baudendistel noted that ACT Research reported December Class 8 truck orders of 37,500 units, up 75% year-over year and modestly stronger than October's 36,100 units. While not significantly out of line with expectations, the order data should be viewed positively, said Baudendistel, who reiterates his Buy ratings on Meritor (MTOR), Navistar (NAV) and Wabco (WBC). The Fly notes that other names leveraged to Class 8 truck data include Paccar (PCAR), Cummins (CMI), Allison Transmission (ALSN) and Eaton (ETN).

NAV

Navistar

$44.58

0.44 (1.00%)

WBC

Wabco

$148.28

1.37 (0.93%)

MTOR

Meritor

$23.91

0.51 (2.18%)

PCAR

Paccar

$73.91

0.89 (1.22%)

CMI

Cummins

$181.64

2.63 (1.47%)

ALSN

Allison Transmission

$44.86

0.695 (1.57%)

ETN

Eaton

$80.58

-1.06 (-1.30%)

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NAV Navistar
$44.58

0.44 (1.00%)

12/12/17
STFL
12/12/17
UPGRADE
Target $50
STFL
Buy
Navistar upgraded to Buy with $50 target at Stifel
Stifel analyst Michael Baudendistel upgraded Navistar International to Buy from Hold and raised his price target for the shares to $50 from $45. The analyst views the company's new products as promising and believes the shares should continue to rise over the next year. Navistar's market share has bottomed and new products should drive growth, Baudendistel tells investors in a research note.
12/22/17
BMOC
12/22/17
NO CHANGE
Target $40
BMOC
Market Perform
Navistar price target raised to $40 from $25 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Joel Tiss noted that Navistar grew market share by 1.5% this fiscal year and he believe that it will be able to successfully reclaim some more lost share in 2019, which should drive earnings growth. He raised his 2018 and 2019 EPS estimates for Navistar and increased his price target on the stock to $40 from $25. Tiss notes that he expects Volkswagen to continue increasing its ownership of Navistar and he understands "investor enthusiasm" on the potential for Volkswagen Truck and Bus to spin-out and purchase the company, though he thinks on a fundamental basis it is difficult to see significant upside from here and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
12/20/17
12/20/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Jack in the Box (JACK) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies with analyst Alexander Slagle saying he sees limited visibility for "big upside" following the sale of Qdoba. 2. MercadoLibre (MELI) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citi with analyst Paola Mello saying while free shipping has helped the company sustain high growth rates in the past two quarters, competition should intensify in key markets like Brazil, Mexico and Chile, as bricks-and-mortar retailers like Via Varejo, Magazine Luiza, and Falabella start to launch their own marketplace platforms. 3. Navistar (NAV) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli with analyst Brian Sponheimer saying the quarter was "outstanding" but recommends taking a "pause" given commodity costs inflation, structural cost increases, lower growth projections, and fair valuation. 4. Spectra Energy Partners (SEP) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays with analyst Christine Cho saying she sees limited visibility for organic growth opportunities. 5. Century Aluminum (CENX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank with analyst Jeremy Kliewer saying he believes consensus estimates are yet yet to fully incorporate higher costs and may be overestimating 2018 results. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
12/20/17
GABE
12/20/17
DOWNGRADE
GABE
Hold
Navistar downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli
Gabelli analyst Brian Sponheimer downgraded Navistar to Hold with a $49 PMV. The analyst said the quarter was "outstanding" but recommends taking a "pause" given commodity costs inflation, structural cost increases, lower growth projections, and fair valuation.
WBC Wabco
$148.28

1.37 (0.93%)

10/23/17
VERT
10/23/17
UPGRADE
VERT
Hold
Wabco upgraded to Hold from Sell at Vertical Research
Vertical Research analyst Joe O'Dea upgraded Wabco to Hold saying he does not see any negative catalysts over the next 6+ months to pressure shares.
09/25/17
BREN
09/25/17
INITIATION
Target $173
BREN
Buy
Wabco initiated with a Buy at Berenberg
Berenberg analyst Gunnar Cohrs initiated Wabco with a Buy and a $173 price target.
10/20/17
BMOC
10/20/17
NO CHANGE
Target $160
BMOC
Market Perform
Wabco price target raised to $160 from $147 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Joel Tiss raised his price target on Wabco to $160, noting that Q3 results were supported by healthy commercial vehicle markets across the globe. Tiss says he expects continued outperformance from the company in spite of management's typically conservative initial 2018 forecast that implies a flat or slightly higher truck and bus production. The analyst keeps his Market Perform rating on Wabco, citing valuation.
10/20/17
RBCM
10/20/17
NO CHANGE
Target $169
RBCM
Outperform
Wabco price target raised to $169 from $166 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Seth Weber raised his price target on Wabco to $169 and kept his Outperform rating, noting the company is his "favorite secular growth story." Weber says Q3 results showed strong revenue growth and good operating leverage, while the recent deals in autonomous driving broaden the company's portfolio.
MTOR Meritor
$23.91

0.51 (2.18%)

09/19/17
LBOW
09/19/17
NO CHANGE
Target $28
LBOW
Buy
Meritor price target raised to $28 from $22 at Longbow
Longbow analyst Faheem Sabeiha raised Meritor's price target to $28 to reflect recent actions including the joint-venture sale, debt repayment, modification to retire healthcare costs and acquisitions of Fabco's product portfolio. The analyst believes Meritor is positioned to benefit from higher industry production rates and to deliver better growth from new business winds and acquisitions under its M2019 strategy combined with expansion of its aftermarket and components business. Sabeiha reiterates his Buy rating on shares.
10/12/17
LBOW
10/12/17
DOWNGRADE
LBOW
Neutral
Meritor downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Longbow
Longbow analyst Faheem Sabeiha downgraded Meritor to Neutral from Buy following a recent truck dealer survey that suggests initial 2018 sales growth is below current industry forecasts, partly due to driver shortage concerns. Contacts expect 2018 Class 8 sales increase of 10% versus FTR Associate's build forecast of up 21%, the analyst wrote in a note to investors. The analyst believes consensus estimates reflect Class 8 industry builds at the high-end of the typical replacement range and said shares have had a solid run recently.
09/28/17
KEYB
09/28/17
DOWNGRADE
KEYB
Sector Weight
Meritor downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Jeffrey Hammond downgraded Meritor to Sector Weight saying the risk/reward is now balanced with the shares up 70% since his February upgrade.
12/08/17
PIPR
12/08/17
UPGRADE
Target $30
PIPR
Overweight
Meritor upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter double upgraded Meritor (MTOR) to Overweight from Underweight and raised his price target for the shares to $30 from $12. The analyst elevated both Meritor and General Motors (GM) to top pick status in the Autos, Trucks, and Advanced Mobility space. Allison Transmission (ALSN) is still Potter's highest conviction Underweight rating. Geographic expansion, market share gains, and electric vehicle products could help Meritor achieve growth, Potter tells investors in a research note. He sees the company's fiscal 2018 guidance, which implies growth of about 9% year-over-year, as "modest" given the cyclical tailwinds in the U.S. truck market.
PCAR Paccar
$73.91

0.89 (1.22%)

01/02/18
01/02/18
UPGRADE
Target $83

Buy
Paccar upgraded to Buy on robust orders, tax reform at BofA/Merrill
As previously reported, BofA/Merrill upgraded Paccar to Buy from Neutral and increased its price target ot $83 from $75. Analyst Ross Gilardi raised his 2018 earnings estimate to $5.40 from $4.65, versus consensus of $4.71, to reflect tax reform benefits, stronger Class 8 production and improving truck margins. The analyst expects consensus estimates to move sharply higher following Q4 results and for shares to play "catch up."
01/02/18
BOFA
01/02/18
UPGRADE
BOFA
Buy
Paccar upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
12/11/17
12/11/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Kimberly-Clark (KMB) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citi with analyst Wendy Nicholson citing "stiff competition" Kimberly-Clark faces "in multiple categories in multiple markets." 2. TSYS (TSS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs with analyst James Schneider citing valuation with the shares approaching his unchanged price target of $80. 3. Paccar (PCAR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan with analyst Ann Duignan saying the North American Class 8 truck market is likely to peak in 2018 and Paccar's stock is likely to continue to see multiple compression. 4. Flowserve (FLS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel with analyst Nathan Jones saying he sees no near-term catalysts given his expectation of orders being flat to down in the fourth quarter. 5. Brixmor (BRX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
12/11/17
JPMS
12/11/17
DOWNGRADE
Target $73
JPMS
Neutral
Paccar downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Ann Duignan downgraded Paccar to Neutral and lowered her price target for the shares to $73 from $83. The North American Class 8 truck market is likely to peak in 2018 and Paccar's stock is likely to continue to see multiple compression, Duignan tells investors in a research note.
CMI Cummins
$181.64

2.63 (1.47%)

12/06/17
OPCO
12/06/17
INITIATION
Target $192
OPCO
Outperform
Cummins initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer started Cummins with an Outperform rating and $192 price target.
12/12/17
LEHM
12/12/17
INITIATION
Target $180
LEHM
Equal Weight
Cummins initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
Barclays analyst Adam Seiden started Cummins with an Equal Weight rating and $180 price target.
11/30/17
GSCO
11/30/17
DOWNGRADE
GSCO
Neutral
Goldman, preferring ag over truck, downgrades Cummins to Neutral
Goldman Sachs analyst Jerry Revich downgraded Cummins (CMI) to Neutral and lowered his price target for the shares to $180 from $192. The engine designer closed the trading day up 2% to $167.40. To position for the next leg of the Machinery recovery, Revich prefers exposure to agriculture over trucks. The analyst coupled the downgrade with an upgrade of Agco (AGCO) to Conviction Buy from Neutral.
12/01/17
12/01/17
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Priceline (PCLN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus with analyst John Staszak downgraded Priceline (PCLN) saying shares are fairly valued around the current price level of $1,740 as the stock trades near the high-end of its five-year PE range. 2. Cummins (CMI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs with analyst Jerry Revich saying to position for the next leg of the Machinery recovery, he prefers exposure to agriculture over trucks. 3. VMware (VMW) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli and Drexel Hamilton. 4. Barnes & Noble (BKS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Craig-Hallum with Alex Fuhrman citing the company's second quarter revenue miss. 5. Regeneron (REGN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi with analyst Robyn Karnauskas saying she believes the competitive threat from Novartis' (NVS) vision-loss drug RTH258 is being underappreciated by the market. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
ALSN Allison Transmission
$44.86

0.695 (1.57%)

11/21/17
JPMS
11/21/17
NO CHANGE
JPMS
Class 8 retail truck sales rose 28% in October, says JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Ann Duignan notes that according to ACT Research, Class 8 retail truck sales were 23,684 units in October, up 28% year-over-year but down 4% year-to-date, while net orders were 36,033 units, up 159% year-over-year and up 55% year-to-date. Truck demand has the largest incremental impact on Navistar (NAV), Paccar (PCAR), Cummins (CMI), Allison Transmission (ALSN) and Eaton (ETN), Duignan tells investors in a research note. She points out that the truck and truck components group has outperformed year-to-date, but underperformed more recently on Tesla's (TSLA) Class 8 electric semi announcement.
11/17/17
PIPR
11/17/17
NO CHANGE
Target $26
PIPR
Underweight
Piper, after analyzing electric trucks, says sell Allison Transmission
Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter tells investors to sell Allison Transmission following an examination of 63 existing and proposed fully electric trucks and buses from 34 different manufacturers. At least 30 of the vehicles examined don't use transmissions, Potter tells investors in a research note titled "Analysis: EVs Might Use Transmissions, but Investors Should Sell ALSN Anyway." Of the ones that definitely do use transmissions, most use simple one or two-speed gearboxes, the analyst adds. He believes that in order for Allison to compete in a market using such simplified drivetrains, it will need to cut price and/or de-content its products. Such a move could put the company's 50%-plus gross margin at risk, Potter cautions. He reiterates an Underweight rating on Allison Transmission with a $26 price target.
11/14/17
BOFA
11/14/17
NO CHANGE
Target $52
BOFA
Buy
BofA/Merrill would buy Allison Transmission on any Tesla related weakness
Elon Musk tweeted that the Tesla (TSLA) semi-truck will be revealed Thursday evening via webcast. BofA/Merrill analyst Ross Gilardi said Tesla's etruck prototype has been "hotly" anticipated but notes most OEM incumbents and suppliers have come out with their own strategies and product announcements. He expects most of the hype to subside once the official announcement is out of the way and believes if ongoing Model 3 production problems are any indicator, etruck adoption may be slower than anticipated. Gilardi's favorite name remains Allison Transmission where it has numerous opportunities in the etruck space and recommends buying shares on any weakness related to the Tesla announcement. The analyst rates Allison a Buy with a $52 price target on shares.
ETN Eaton
$80.58

-1.06 (-1.30%)

11/20/17
DBAB
11/20/17
NO CHANGE
Target $200
DBAB
Buy
Parker-Hannifin price target raised to $200 from $187 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst John Inch raised his price target for Parker-Hannifin (PH) to $200 to reflect higher sales growth assumptions. The analyst sees "strong" Industrial segment organic sales and order growth in Q1 and upped his fiscal 2018 earnings per share estimate to $9.50 from $9.00 and fiscal 2019 estimate to $10.50 from $10.10. He continues to favor Parker-Hannifin over Eaton (ETN) and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
01/03/18
BARD
01/03/18
UPGRADE
Target $92
BARD
Outperform
Eaton upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird
Baird analyst Mig Dobre upgraded Eaton to Outperform from Neutral, stating that he believes tax clarity may allow it to close the valuation discount currently seen in its shares versus its peers. Dobre also sees Eaton benefitting from generally positive end markets. Dobre raised his price target on Eaton shares to $92 from $82.
11/02/17
JPMS
11/02/17
NO CHANGE
JPMS
Class 8 truck orders seen up 160% year-over-year in October, says JPMorgan
ACT Research reported Class 8 truck net new orders of 36,200 units in October, up 160% from last year and up 60% sequentially, noted JPMorgan analyst Ann Duignan. U.S. indicators for truck purchases have trended more positively, noted the analyst, who sees the data as having an incremental impact on Navistar (NAV), Paccar (PCAR), Cummins (CMI), Allison Transmission (ALSN) and Eaton (ETN).

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