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HOG

Harley-Davidson

$53.63

1.48 (2.84%)

07:47
01/12/18
01/12
07:47
01/12/18
07:47

Bernstein expects Harley-Davidson to guide for flat shipments in 2018

Based on his channel checks with Harley-Davidson dealers and an analysis of used pricing data, Bernstein analyst David Beckel said he does not think Harley's efforts to control used motorcycle pricing have gained much traction. Given this, he expects Harley to give guidance for shipment growth to be about flat for FY18 off a base that is at the low end of the company's 2017 guidance of about 241,500 units. For FY18, he forecasts no meaningful change in gross or operating margins, but expects share buybacks to add 10% to EPS growth and a lower tax rate to add another 20%, he tells investors. Beckel raised his price target on Harley shares to $60 from $53 citing tax reform adjustments and keeps a Market Perform rating on the stock.

  • 30

    Jan

HOG Harley-Davidson
$53.63

1.48 (2.84%)

01/03/18
LBOW
01/03/18
DOWNGRADE
LBOW
Underperform
Longbow downgrades Harley to Underperform following Q4 channel checks
Longbow analyst David MacGregor downgraded Harley-Davidson (HOG) to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $43. The shares closed yesterday up 2% to $52.06. Channel checks in Q4 revealed that Harley's U.S. retail sales are trending down 5%-7% with U.S. shipments expected to be down at least 20%, MacGregor tells investors in a research note. The analyst expects international shipments to offset weaker shipments in the U.S. but he sees a "strong chance" that Q4 shipments could be at the low-end of the company's shipment guidance or miss for the quarter. He believes Polaris Industries' (PII) Indian motorcycle gained slight share versus Harley-Davidson in the midsize category while Harley likely gained share in the touring segment. MacGregor views his Q4 checks as negative for Harley and mixed for Polaris.
01/03/18
01/03/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Harley-Davidson (HOG) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Longbow with analyst David MacGregor saying channel checks in the fourth quarter revealed that Harley's U.S. retail sales are trending down 5%-7% with U.S. shipments expected to be down at least 20%. 2. TJX (TJX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo with analyst Ike Boruchow saying Marmaxx has simply become too big to generate share gains similar to years past. 3. Honeywell (HON) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital with analyst Deane Dray saying the stock is likely to "take a breather" this year after a solid run in 2017, adding that despite the potential margin upside, the positive catalysts of "Turbo/Homes spin announcements and CEO transition" have played out. 4. Pinnacle West (PNW) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill with analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith saying valuation is priced at the "pinnacle" and sees risks that a -$1.3B CapEx budget still results in earnings closer to -5% on a net basis, and potential downside to Street estimates of between 5c-10c. 5. Charles Schwab (SCHW) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities with analyst Devin Ryan saying he now views its valuation as more adequately reflecting the current risk and reward following the stock's recent outperformance. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
01/04/18
UBSW
01/04/18
NO CHANGE
Target $56
UBSW
Neutral
Harley-Davidson U.S. dealer inventory could be down double digits, says UBS
UBS analyst Robin Farley noted that Harley-Davidson has stated a goal of keeping inventory tight in 2018 and has also hinted at shipping at a slightly higher rate than U.S. retail given expectations for U.S. dealer inventory to end 2017 down. Even if there were high-single digit U.S. retail sales declines for Q4, U.S. dealer inventory could still be down double digits at year end, the analyst said. Harley could achieve the goal of keeping U.S. inventory flat year-over-year even if 2018 shipments were up 3% to down 2%, but only assuming its international mix remains at a record level, said Farley. The analyst maintained her Neutral rating and $56 price target on Harley-Davidson shares.
01/10/18
WEDB
01/10/18
NO CHANGE
Target $49
WEDB
Neutral
Harley-Davidson estimates lowered on lack of retail improvement at Wedbush
Wedbush analyst James Hardiman notes that based on his channel checks of U.S. Harley-Davidson dealer contacts, he believes Q4 retail sales were down high-single digits. Further, the analyst says the revamped Softail lineup continues to see mixed demand at dealers thus far. Overall, Hardiman argues that a lack of sustained retail improvement has prompted him to lower his 2018 estimate by 14c to $3.43. He reiterates a Neutral rating and $49 price target on the shares.

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BPOP

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$46.94

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WSM

Williams-Sonoma

$49.21

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$74.45

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CVX

Chevron

$128.70

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EA

Electronic Arts

$133.49

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$0.00

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WUBA

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NFLX

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