Bernstein expects Harley-Davidson to guide for flat shipments in 2018
Based on his channel checks with Harley-Davidson dealers and an analysis of used pricing data, Bernstein analyst David Beckel said he does not think Harley's efforts to control used motorcycle pricing have gained much traction. Given this, he expects Harley to give guidance for shipment growth to be about flat for FY18 off a base that is at the low end of the company's 2017 guidance of about 241,500 units. For FY18, he forecasts no meaningful change in gross or operating margins, but expects share buybacks to add 10% to EPS growth and a lower tax rate to add another 20%, he tells investors. Beckel raised his price target on Harley shares to $60 from $53 citing tax reform adjustments and keeps a Market Perform rating on the stock.