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SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$277.72

1.6 (0.58%)

, SPX

S&P 500

$0.00

(0.00%)

14:54
01/12/18
01/12
14:54
01/12/18
14:54

On The Fly: Weekly technical notes for S&P 500

For the week, the S&P 500 (SPX) is set to end yet again at fresh life highs, just short of the 2800 area mentioned in last week's note as a potential target. That level remains next week's business perhaps in the holiday-shortened session, packed with financial firm reports. It will be the first real week of earnings season, with four more major weeks to come. For this coming week, by its end a little over 7.5% of companies will have reported, representing over 12.6% of the index weight. The week after will see an additional 19% of the components having reported, representing over 22% of index weight. We have a long way to go with many potential surprises. But one does have to pause and somewhat marvel at the resistance of this rally. Many pundits have been alarmed by recent sharp rises in price as the index develops more of an arc of support rather than a well-behaved 45-degree slope. I was curious about how this looked in a longer-term context. Pulling back to a 10-year chart showed something worth keeping in mind as we move into the year. Our current rally is actually only now moving back up toward the top of the bullish price channel that range from 2013, when this bull really began in exceeding prior index highs, to the point in time where it stalled out in early 2015. And if we project that top line backward, it goes into 2011 without any abrupt change in angle. In short, that is a line we should look to as it has been the dominant one for years. We may have all lost sight of that given the long-slog sideway through 2015 and 2016 before the election. So if we presume this observation is valid, where do we get to? Projecting the line forward yields a year-end target in the 3125-3150 range. Using the low-bound of the channel, 2950-3000. Those numbers fit largely with where many sell-side firms have set their targets. But this is the key. We get to those numbers without ever exceeding the current pace of gains. Something to bear in mind in the weeks ahead as we get a read from companies as to earnings, the benefit of tax cuts, and a general read on economic policy and future growth. Earnings will hold the key as to whether these price objectives can be met and maintained. For those concerned about a possible point where this rally could sour, for the coming week it would take a move below 2690 to break the long-term uptrend.

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$277.72

1.6 (0.58%)

SPX

S&P 500

$0.00

(0.00%)

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
$277.72

1.6 (0.58%)

04/10/17
MSCO
04/10/17
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Morgan Stanley sets S&P 500 'base case' price target of 2,700
Morgan Stanley U.S. Equity Strategist Michael Wilson set a 12-month "base case" price target of 2,700 for the S&P 500, stating that market technicals are in "very good shape" and institutional and retail data suggest U.S. equity positioning is not extreme. A cyclical upturn began a year ago as the global business cycle bottomed in Q1 of 2016 and President Trump's election then "turbocharged" that cycle, said Wilson.
06/28/17
GSCO
06/28/17
NO CHANGE
GSCO
S&P 500 price target raised to 2,400 from 2,300 at Goldman Sachs
Goldman analyst David Kostin raised his S&P 500 earnings estimate to $129 from $123 in 2017 and to $139 from $129 in 2018 to reflect strong Q1 results and higher expected growth in Financials and Info Tech. Kostin raised his year-end S&P 500 price target to 2,400 from 2,300 to reflect earnings growth of 9%, offset by a 4% contraction in the forward multiple.
12/11/17
OPCO
12/11/17
NO CHANGE
OPCO
Oppenheimer initiates S&P 500 price target of $3,000 in 2018 on outlook
Oppenheimer has initiated an S&P 500 price target of $3,000 in 2018 as it believes the fundamentals - both economic growth and corporate earnings - will likely improve further in 2018. Its price target and earnings estimate do not include any assumptions about what tax reform might ultimately look like.
SPX S&P 500
$0.00

(0.00%)

03/08/17
03/08/17
NO CHANGE

David Tepper says stock market on multiple basis 'kind of full'
Appaloosa Management's David Tepper is speaking in CNBC.

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Technical Analysis
Technical Take: SPDR S&P 500 ETF edges higher after first 15 minutes »

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S&P 500

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KSS

Kohl's

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Level to be reported at 10:00 »

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PSTG

Pure Storage

$23.60

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DF

Dean Foods

$9.79

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09:40
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Periodicals
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FOX

21st Century Fox

$37.45

(0.00%)

, FOXA

21st Century Fox

$37.92

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09:38
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Periodicals
Fox shareholder vote date should be announced in 'week or two,' CNBC reports »

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FOX

21st Century Fox

$37.45

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FOXA

21st Century Fox

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DIS

Disney

$104.05

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CMCSA

Comcast

$32.34

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CMCSK

Comcast

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RLH

Red Lion Hotels

$10.45

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BOSC

B.O.S. Better Online

$2.26

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EXR

Extra Space Storage

$92.96

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KSS

Kohl's

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DSX

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$4.27

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PGR

Progressive

$61.65

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KSS

Kohl's

$65.47

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, AMZN

Amazon.com

$1,585.55

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Kohl's

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Amazon.com

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NEM

Newmont Mining

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CBB

Cincinnati Bell

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Navient

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GTN

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MRC Global

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AVYA

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CNC

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AXL

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WAIR

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GLT

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VRX

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$22.07

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Zayo Group

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MPW

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$13.12

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OMF

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TTMI

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AES Corp.

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BX

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HighPoint Resources

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SCI

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CPE

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OSTK

Overstock.com

$37.35

(0.00%)

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