The U.S. durables report
The U.S. durables report revealed a 0.3% January ex-transportation orders drop that marked the first decline since last April, alongside a 3.7% transportation-led headline durable orders drop, with a hit from a 20.8% drop for defense orders. Analysts saw modest disappointments in the equipment and shipments data, but upside December and January surprises for inventories. Analysts now assume a Q4 GDP growth boost to 2.7% from 2.6%, with a hike of $1 B for factory inventories and no equipment revision, alongside boosts of $8 B for wholesale inventories and $3 B for private construction, but downward bumps of $4 B for consumption, $3 B for public construction, and $2 B for net exports. Analysts still expect 2.6% real GDP growth in Q1, with growth in equipment spending of 6% after an 11.4% Q4 clip. Analysts expect a $14 B Q1 inventory addition that leaves a $32 B accumulation rate. Analysts expect a 0.4% January factory inventory rise with a 0.6% business inventory increase, given the 0.3% factory durable inventory gain. Analysts assume a 1.5% January factory orders drop with a 0.5% factory shipments gain, given an assumed 0.7% price-led nondurable goods rise.