Action Economics Survey Results:
Action Economics Survey Results: it was a rough Q1 for bulls with both stocks and core bonds losing ground. The Dow's 2.49% drop over the last three months, and the S&P 500's -1.2%, broke a string of quarterly gains going back to 2015. Treasury yields ended higher as well, with the 2-year and 10-year rates up 35 bps and 28 bps, respectively. A variety of factors impacted, including the FOMC's tightening posture and the ongoing balance sheet unwind, some signs of slowing momentum, political and geopolitical uncertainties, along with the recent woes in the social media sphere. Regarding the Fed, it's still the case that no one forecasts another hike as soon as the May 1, 2 meeting, though nearly all project a 25 bp increase in June. Meanwhile, the upward revision to Q4 GDP beat nearly all estimates, and though various NowCast models point to some further erosion in Q1 growth, fundamentals still seem solid. This week's calendar includes a number of key variables that will provide clues on the economyÃ¢Â€Â™s health heading into Q2. Of course, the focus will be on the jobs report, where the Survey Medians point to a 195k increase in nonfarm payrolls, a drop to 4.0% on the unemployment rate, and a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings, suggesting a still strong labor market.