First signs of yield curve inversion
First signs of yield curve inversion is creating a "bad omen" is the conclusion of a Bloomberg article that charts the dip in the U.S. 1-month overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate from 2020, according to JPMorgan research. This rare inversion of the curve is either a signal of a policy mistake from the Fed (overtightening) or end-of-cycle dynamics (pricing in recession). Either way, it is reportedly a bad omen for risk seeking trades over those favoring safety. Of course, the negative trade headlines are feeding fear indicators as well, with the VIX equity volatility index topping 25.0 late in Q1 before easing to 21.0 presently from averaging around 10.0 last year.