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NFLX

Netflix

$311.65

2.4 (0.78%)

, CMCSA

Comcast

$33.02

-0.11 (-0.33%)

09:55
04/16/18
04/16
09:55
04/16/18
09:55

On The Fly: What to watch in Netflix earnings report

Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to report results of its first fiscal quarter after market close on April 16, with a conference call scheduled for 6:00 pm ET. What to watch: 1. SUBSCRIBERS: Netflix's subscriber numbers are a closely-watched measure of the company's growth trajectory. Last quarter, the company reported streaming net additions of 8.3M members, including fourth quarter U.S. additions of 2.0M and international additions of over 6.3M members. For Q1, Netflix has forecast streaming net additions of 1.45M in the U.S. and international streaming net additions of 4.9M for an expected total of 6.35M. Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson recently told investors that his analysis of Netflix search trends pointed to in-line domestic and international subscriber growth in Q1. Meanwhile, UBS analyst Eric Sheridan believes Netflix could report upside to its Q1 subscription guidance, as he said his analysis points to broad-based growth trends across regions into 2018 with older markets continuing to mature but while sustaining solid levels. A number of other Wall Street firms - including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Raymond James and Cowen - have recently raised their price targets on Netflix heading into the company's report. 2. DEUTSCHE SAYS BUY: On Friday, Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft upgraded Netflix to Buy from Hold and raised his price target for the shares to $350 from $240. Netflix has changed the industry in a "profound way" and in doing so has given itself a "significant" lead, making it very difficult for the traditional media companies, or even other big tech companies, to catch up, Kraft told investors. He believes Netflix continues to capitalize on this lead by reinvesting in content, marketing, and the user experience. The analyst admitted that he underestimated the market's willingness to underwrite several years of negative free cash flow to drive growth. Further, the company's Q1 guidance looks conservative by up to 1M subscribers worldwide, Kraft contended. 3. COMCAST BUNDLES: Also on Friday, Netflix announced an expansion of a partnership that will provide Comcast (CMCSA, CMCSK) the ability to include a Netflix subscription in new and existing Xfinity packages. In the release regarding the change in their partnership, Comcast said: "Netflix has quickly become one of the most popular voice searches and highly-viewed services on the platform; and among households watching Netflix on X1, X1 has quickly become the most used platform for Netflix viewing."

NFLX

Netflix

$311.65

2.4 (0.78%)

CMCSA

Comcast

$33.02

-0.11 (-0.33%)

CMCSK

Comcast

$58.00

(0.00%)

  • 16

    Apr

  • 25

    Apr

NFLX Netflix
$311.65

2.4 (0.78%)

04/16/18
RBCM
04/16/18
NO CHANGE
Target $350
RBCM
Outperform
Netflix Q1 consensus estimates are 'reasonable', says RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney previews Q1 earnings report for Netflix expected after the close later today. Mahaney says his intra-quarter data points, proprietary survey work, and model sensitivity analysis all suggest that consensus numbers for EPS, revenue, and total subscription adds are all "reasonable", though the estimates for Q2 outlook for U.S. subscribers may be on the "high side" considering the weak seasonality for that quarter, tough comps, and limited "rock-star" content slate. The analyst keeps his Outperform rating and $350 price target for Netflix ahead of today's earnings.
04/13/18
04/13/18
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with analyst Bryan Kraft saying he underestimated the market's willingness to underwrite several years of negative free cash flow to drive growth. 2. Eli Lilly (LLY) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital with analyst Alex Arfaei saying he believes that his previously expressed concerns around the downside risks for Humalog, cautious outlook for Vernezio, and uncertainty around Bari are "mostly reflected" in the stock, with more balance in risk-reward going forward. 3. Willis Towers Watson (WLTW) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Sandler O'Neill with analyst Paul Newsome saying he is making a valuation call with the stock down to "both absolute and relative valuations that we have not seen since there were significant concerns about the Willis/Towers Watson merger and the company's ability to generate organic growth." 4. Shaw Communications (SJR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord and to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank. 5. eBay (EBAY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Monness Crespi with analyst Jim Chartier saying eBay's structured data initiatives have meaningfully improved the eBay marketplace experience for buyers and sellers, resulting in gross merchandise value inflecting to up 7% in the fourth quarter of 2017 from up 1% in the third quarter of 2016. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
04/13/18
DBAB
04/13/18
UPGRADE
Target $350
DBAB
Buy
Deutsche Bank upgrades Netflix to Buy with price target of $350
Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Kraft upgraded Netflix to Buy from Hold and raised his price target for the shares to $350 from $240. The streaming service closed yesterday up $5.58 to $309.25. The analyst admits he underestimated the market's willingness to underwrite several years of negative free cash flow to drive growth. Netflix has changed the industry in a "profound way" and in doing so has given itself a "significant" lead, making it very difficult for the traditional media companies, or even other big tech companies, to catch up, Kraft tells investors in a research note. He believes Netflix continues to capitalize on this lead by reinvesting in content, marketing, and the user experience. Further, the company's Q1 guidance looks conservative by up to 1M subscribers worldwide, the analyst contends.
04/13/18
WELS
04/13/18
NO CHANGE
Target $345
WELS
Outperform
Netflix price target raised to $345 from $285 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Ken Sena raised his price target for Netflix to $345 from $285 saying his survey of 500 U.S. residents reaffirms the streaming service's pricing power. The survey indicates that based on the level and quality of content Netflix has today, 50% of respondents would pay a higher, and in some instances a much higher, price, Sena tells investors in a research note. The analyst modestly increased his outer-year estimates for Netflix and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
CMCSA Comcast
$33.02

-0.11 (-0.33%)

03/15/18
LOOP
03/15/18
INITIATION
Target $43
LOOP
Buy
21st Century Fox initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital
Loop Capital analyst Alan Gould started 21st Century Fox (FOXA) with a Buy rating and $43 price target. The analyst believes the company is set up as the "ideal acquisition target for either Disney (DIS) or Comcast (CMCSA) as they evolve their video businesses into a global, direct-to-consumer streaming service."
04/02/18
MACQ
04/02/18
NO CHANGE
Target $38
MACQ
Neutral
Macquarie sees Q1 video losses for Comcast
Macquarie analyst Amy Yong is modeling Comcast Q1 video net losses of 77k and revenue declines of .7% due to lower video net adds/ARPU. Yong expects downward estimate revisions for Comcast given headwinds to the video business and uncertainty around its interest in Sky and lowered her 2018/19 consolidated EBITDA to $29.2B and $31.2B, respectively. The analyst rates shares of Comcast a Neutral and cut her price target to $38 from $42.
04/09/18
NOMU
04/09/18
NO CHANGE
Target $40
NOMU
Neutral
Comcast price target lowed to $40 from $45 at Nomura Instinet
Nomura Instinet analyst Jeffrey Kvaal lowered his price target for Comcast shares to $40 to reflect reduced buyback expectations. The analyst, however, says the "sky is not falling." The analyst, while continuing to prefer mobile over fixed, views the 15% pullback in Comcast shares as an overreaction. He expects the company to offer investors "some relief" on its Q1 call. Kvaal keeps a Neutral rating on Comcast.
03/26/18
COWN
03/26/18
INITIATION
COWN
Market Perform
Comcast initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen
CMCSK Comcast
$58.00

(0.00%)

02/28/18
02/28/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Celgene (CELG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at SunTrust by analyst Yatin Suneja after the company received a refusal to file letter from the FDA on ozanimod for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. Suneja said that following pipeline setbacks in late 2017, ozanimod was central to his "bull thesis to re-accelerate growth" and provide "much needed diversification away from myeloma." Given the delay, he lowered his ozanimod peak sales estimate to $3.5B from $5B. The refusal to file letter could result in a 24-month or longer delay for ozanimod's launch in relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis, Suneja said. 2. Frontier Communications (FTR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies by analyst Scott Goldman. With the dividend now suspended and EBITDA stabilization "still a work in progress," the shares have no near-term catalyst, Goldman said. He believes "significant challenges" remain for Frontier following the dividend suspension. 3. Comcast (CMCSA, CMCSK) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie by analyst Amy Young, who cited uncertainty around the M&A playbook and increased net leverage. Young said Comcast's intention to acquire Sky (SKYAY) diversifies its portfolio and increases international revenues to 25% of total from 9% currently, but exposes it to satellite TV, which faces secular pressures. The analyst views the 12x price tag for Sky as high, questions the synergies, and believes the unpredictability could cap near-term upside. 4. e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital by analyst Shannon Coyne, who cited the "near-term challenges in the mass category" and heightened competition yielding further pressure on results and the stock in the near term. The analyst also points to the management having lowered its expectations for the 3rd time in 6 months, adding that it may take some time for investor confidence to return. Despite the downgrade, the analyst believes that e.l.f "has material white space in existing and new retailers" as well as an "unmatched strong value proposition." 5. Maxim Integrated (MXIM) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie by analyst Srini Pajjuri, who said shares have significantly outperformed the SOX index year-to-date and believes healthy fundamentals are now backed in, combined with some M&A premium. Pajjuri believes further upside is limited on a fundamental basis and believes comps will get tougher in the second half of 2018 and sees risk of higher volatility in Consumer as Samsung GS9 builds fade. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
03/07/18
WELS
03/07/18
NO CHANGE
WELS
Wells Fargo expects bidding war for Sky
Wells Fargo analyst Marci Ryvicker expects a bidding war for Sky (SKYAY). The analyst believes Sky appears to be more accretive to Disney (DIS)-Fox (FOXA) but more strategic for Comcast (CMCSA; CMCSK). Ultimately, Ryvicker thinks the latter with win but not without a fight from Disney/Fox.
03/14/18
MACQ
03/14/18
UPGRADE
MACQ
Outperform
Sky upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie
Macquarie analyst Guy Peddy upgraded Sky (SKYAY) to Outperform from Neutral after he raised his FY19/20 and FY20/21 EPS by about 16% due to the lower EPL costs. His valuation analysis suggests the current 1075p offer from 21st Century Fox (FOXA) "materially undervalues" Sky and even Comcast's (CMCSA) indicative offer at 1250p "fractionally undervalues" it, Peddy tells investors. What happens next is up to Comcast and Disney (DIS), as Fox is just an intermediary, he added. Peddy raised his price target on Sky shares to 1450p, as he believes tension between those two could lift the offer price at least 10% above his fair value estimate of 1287p.
02/27/18
RBCM
02/27/18
NO CHANGE
RBCM
RBC says 21st Century Fox may let Comcast go ahead without counter-bid for Sky
After Comcast (CMCSA) proposed a cash offer for Sky (SKYAY) at a 16% premium to 21st Century Fox's (FOX) existing takeover bid, RBC Capital analyst Steven Cahall said that while he does not "profess to know the minds of the Murdochs" on the matter, he is inclined to think that Fox may let Comcast go ahead with its bid as the deal will no longer be "financially opportunistic" as it would have been. Adding that he was surprised Disney's (DIS) original deal for Fox included the Sky stake, Cahall said he's also "inclined to say" that Disney management "can live without Sky" and that the story is "unchanged, and arguably cleaner," without Sky. The analyst, who contends that Disney and Fox are best off letting Comcast "swoop in on Sky," has a Top Pick rating on Disney and an Outperform rating on 21st Century Fox.

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