Action Economics Survey results:
Action Economics Survey results: it is a cautious Friday the 13th trade in the markets heading into the weekend amid geopolitical uncertainties. The threat of military action against Syria, and the back-and-forth from the White House on trade issues, including tariffs, NAFTA, TPP, are offsetting the bullish tone from earnings, and are restraining the upside on Wall Street. Concurrently, longer dated Treasuries have a bid, flattening the curve amid short covering, safe haven demand, Fed policy views, and supply issues. Meanwhile, with the start of earnings season, some attention will turn back to fundamentals. And this week's Survey suggests only modest slowing is in store from the more heady pace from 2017. The Survey Median shows a 2.5% growth rate for Q1 GDP (due April 27) versus the 2.9% Q4 pace, and the better than 3% rates in Q3 and Q2. As for next week, March retail sales are expected to bounce 0.4% thanks to the surprising robustness in unit auto sales. Excluding autos, sales are seen rising 0.2%. The earlier timing of Easter may impact as well. Some slowing is expected in the manufacturing reports too, though from high levels.