The Empire State headline fell to 15.8
The Empire State headline fell to 15.8 from 22.5 in March but a lower 13.1 in February, versus a 3-year high of 28.1 last October, while the ISM-adjusted Empire State also fell, to 56.2 from 57.3 in March but a lower 55.0 in February, versus an 11-year high of 57.4 in September. Analysts saw declines in every component but inventories and the workweek, following March gains in every component except employment. Analysts expect an April Philly Fed downtick on Thursday to 21.0 from 22.3 in March and 25.8 in February, versus a 2-year high of 35.3 in February of 2017. The ISM-adjusted average of the major producer sentiment surveys looks poised to slip to 57 from a 58 cycle-high in February and March that was also seen in December, and previously in both September and October, versus 57 in January and November. Analysts still expect GDP growth of 2.4% in Q1 and 3.6% in Q2, following rates of 2.9% in Q4, 3.2% in Q3 and 3.1% in Q2. Analysts expect industrial production growth of 3.6% in Q1 and 3.5% in Q2, after a 7.7% clip in Q4, a hurricane-depressed -1.5% pace in Q3, and a 5.0% rate in Q2.