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M

Macy's

$29.96

0.34 (1.15%)

, AMZN

Amazon.com

$1,570.00

-31.32 (-1.96%)

11:20
05/15/18
05/15
11:20
05/15/18
11:20

On The Fly: What to watch in Macy's earnings report

Macy's (M) is scheduled to report results of its first fiscal quarter before the market open on Wednesday, May 16, with a conference call scheduled for 9:30 am EDT. What to watch for: 1. TURNAROUND: Last year, Macy's CEO Jeff Gennette said he was "committed" to stabilizing its brick and mortar business, and that customers had been confused by "very complex" pricing. In February, Macy's updated on its plans, saying that it is strategically investing to accelerate the rollout of a number of near-term growth initiatives impacting stores, technology and merchandising. The company said it has also developed an employee incentive program to drive results and engagement with associates at every level of the organization, with an emphasis on its hourly associates. Gennette said at the time that there is a "clear path" to return Macy's to growth. Despite closing stores proactively, store-only comps remain negative and Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger forecasts them to remain so in the future, eroding ROIC. Expense cuts, real estate monetization, and secondary growth initiatives are encouraging, but the market may need to see core retail EBIT stabilization and a return to strong cash flow generation in order to become more constructive on the stock, the analyst contended. Macy's is closing stores, but it is not doing so quickly enough, believes Greenberger. 2. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE: Macy's has been faced with competition from fast-fashion retailers like H&M, as well as an increase in online shopping on Amazon.com (AMZN). Macy's and other retailers are also looking to delve further into the beauty products market in a move to compete with Amazon and brick-and-mortar retailers like Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT). The current promotional environment as well as tourism sales and a shift to e-commerce has been a focus for many retailers as of late. Macy's is launching "The Market @ Macy's," a new pop-up marketplace concept, CNBC reported in February. The program, aimed at giving Macy's customers more variety to their shopping, gives "pods" of space to a handful of brands and companies on Macy's ground floor to promote or sell their products. According to a regulatory filing, Amazon said that it has exceeded 100M paid Prime members globally 13 years post-launch. Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak that his analysis shows that Amazon has gained 1.5% of U.S. apparel market share in 2017 and may achieve number one U.S. apparel market share in 2018 as Prime members and Millennials shift spending to Amazon and away from traditional brick and mortar retailers. The analyst pointed out that Amazon's 2017 share gains look to have come largely at the expense of department stores, estimating Macy's, Sears (SHLD) and J.C. Penney (JCP) lost 0.8% share in 2017. 3. GUIDANCE: In February, Macy's forecast fiscal 2018 adjusted earnings per share of $3.55-$3.75, in line with analysts' expectations at the time of $3.66, though the consensus has since moved lower to $3.61. For FY18, the company expects comparable sales on both an owned and an owned plus licensed basis to be flat to up 1%, while total sales are expected to be down between 0.5%-2%. On its last earnings call, CFO Karen Hoguet said Macy's expects stronger sales in the second half of 2018 than the first half and that first half owned plus licensed comp sales are expected to be "approximately flat to slightly down." 4. PARTNERSHIPS: Macy's may also provide an update on some of its partnerships. Finish Line (FINL) said in March that Macy's sales increased 8.5% in Q4. 5. EXECUTIVE SUCCESSION: CFO Karen Hoguet said in April that she will retire in February 2019. An external search is underway for Hoguet's replacement and the company anticipates a well-ordered transition. Hoguet will continue in her role as CFO until her successor is appointed.

M

Macy's

$29.96

0.34 (1.15%)

AMZN

Amazon.com

$1,570.00

-31.32 (-1.96%)

JCP

J.C. Penney

$2.89

0.07 (2.48%)

SHLD

Sears

$3.50

-0.14 (-3.85%)

TGT

Target

$73.10

0.85 (1.18%)

FINL

Finish Line

$13.57

0.01 (0.07%)

  • 16

    May

  • 17

    May

  • 18

    May

  • 04

    Jun

  • 19

    Jun

M Macy's
$29.96

0.34 (1.15%)

05/10/18
05/10/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Macy's (M) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley with analyst Kimberly Greenberger citing its ongoing negative store-only comparable sales and continued decline in return on invested capital, or ROIC. 2. L Brands (LB) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Loop Capital with analyst Laura Champine saying the April same-store-sales result of 0% was driven by promotions, and merchandise margin was once again "down significantly." The analyst also cut her price target for the shares to $28 from $40. 3. Tableau (DATA) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at MoffettNathanson. 4. Roche (RHHBY) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein with analyst Tim Anderson saying its model shows the slowest 5Y EPS growth among his 10 covered names. 5. Baker Hughes (BHGE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill with analyst Timna Tanners citing the strong run in Baker Hughes shares. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
05/04/18
OTRG
05/04/18
UPGRADE
OTRG
Positive
Macy's upgraded to Positive from Mixed at OTR Global
05/10/18
05/10/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $25

Underweight
Morgan Stanley sees 'uphill battle' for Macy's, downgrades to Underweight
As previously reported, Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger downgraded Macy's to Underweight from Equal Weight citing its ongoing negative store-only comparable sales and continued decline in return on invested capital, or ROIC. Macy's is closing stores, but it is not doing so quickly enough, contends Greenberger. While those metrics leave her cautious, she also noted the retailer's shares have advanced over 60% since October, which she sees leaving the risk for investors skewed to the downside. Greenberger lowered her price target on Macy's shares to $25 from $27.
05/10/18
MSCO
05/10/18
DOWNGRADE
MSCO
Underweight
Macy's downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
AMZN Amazon.com
$1,570.00

-31.32 (-1.96%)

05/09/18
JEFF
05/09/18
NO CHANGE
Target $60
JEFF
Hold
Sears-Amazon tire partnership not a negative for Monro, says Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Bret Jordan kept his Hold rating and $60 price target on Monro (MNRO) after its stock price fell over 7.5% today to $52.70, saying Sears (SHLD) partnership with Amazon (AMZN) on tire installation and services is a not "transformational negative". Jordan notes that the greater transparency and price matching is not new, while Monro is "already an installer for other online sellers such as Tirerack and ATD's tirebuyer.com". The analyst adds that the agreement is not exclusive, leaving the "door open" for Monro to enter into a similar deal.
05/10/18
ROTH
05/10/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $1.8
ROTH
Neutral
U.S. Auto Parts downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Roth Capital
Roth Capital analyst Darren Aftahi downgraded U.S. Auto Parts (PRTS) to Neutral from Buy on decelerating PL and marketplace growth. Nonetheless, the analyst notes that its Amazon (AMZN) partnership is "encouraging." Aftahi also lowered his price target on U.S. Auto Parts' shares to $1.80 from $3.
05/10/18
MSCO
05/10/18
NO CHANGE
Target $93
MSCO
Equal Weight
Walmart deal for Flipkart more dilutive than anticipated, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Simeon Gutman noted that news reports heading up to Walmart's (WMT) deal for a majority stake in Flipkart had predicted a $12B transaction for about 60% of a business generating operating losses in the $1B range. However, the higher than expected magnitude of losses Walmart would absorb in India significantly raises the stakes on the trajectory of its U.S. business and clouds the near-term path, he said. He also questions why the company is investing outside the U.S. market, stating that it could have instead accelerated its third-party marketplace infrastructure, stepped up its partnership with Google Home (GOOG) to better compete with Amazon's (AMZN) Alexa, or intensified domestic investments in price and fulfillment. However, he does add that the deal prevents Amazon, for now, from building an "insurmountable" advantage in the important Indian market. Gutman lowered his price target on Walmart to $93 from $99 after the deal was more dilutive than anticipated and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares.
05/15/18
MKMP
05/15/18
NO CHANGE
Target $67
MKMP
Neutral
Kohl's Q1 may see 'significant slowdown' from Q4 on weather, says MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Patrick McKeever keeps his Neutral rating and $67 price target on Kohl's ahead of its Q1 earnings next week, saying the quarter is facing a risk of a slowdown from Q4 activity because of the wintery weather in the East. The analyst adds that he sees SSS rising 3% in Q1, but also expects them to decelerate in the coming quarters as comparisons become "progressively more difficult", while the partnership between Kohl's and Amazon (AMZN) remains limited.
JCP J.C. Penney
$2.89

0.07 (2.48%)

11/30/17
COWN
11/30/17
NO CHANGE
Target $4
COWN
Market Perform
J.C. Penney taking steps toward a comeback, says Cowen
Cowen analyst Oliver Chen met with J.C. Penney and said he is confident the company's liquidity, its multi-year ability to drive free cash flow, and controlled capital expenditures will mitigate some risk. He likes management's simplification of marketing, its value messaging and execution, and leveraging of non-apparel categories, which should drive greater consistency in traffic and growth. Chen maintains his Market Perform rating and $4 price target on J.C. Penney shares as he looks for visibility on greater consistency in traffic trends.
03/12/18
FBCO
03/12/18
INITIATION
Target $2.5
FBCO
Underperform
J.C. Penney initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse initiated J.C. Penney with an Underperform and $2.50 price target.
12/22/17
MSCO
12/22/17
NO CHANGE
MSCO
TJX stands to benefit from Bon-Ton closures, says Morgan Stanley
After analyzing which department stores and off-price retailers have the greatest overlap with troubled retailer Bon-Ton Stores (BONT), Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger found that over 40% of Bon-Ton's have a TJX (TJX) concept within a one mile radius and she sees it as the retailer that could benefit the most from a Bon-Ton liquidity event. Though Sears (SHLD) has the greatest overlap overall, there is no evidence to suggest it, nor Kohl's (KSS) and J.C. Penney (JCP), have been able to capitalize on Bon-Ton's struggles so far, added Greenberger.
04/19/18
MSCO
04/19/18
NO CHANGE
Target $1550
MSCO
Overweight
Amazon gaining apparel market share in U.S., says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak said his analysis shows that Amazon (AMZN) gained 1.5% of U.S. apparel market share in 2017, largely at the expense of department stores. He estimates Amazon is the second largest U.S. apparel retailer, trailing only Walmart (WMT), and expects the e-commerce giant to take the number one spot in terms of U.S. apparel market share in 2018. Cumulatively, Nowak estimates Sears (SHLD), Macy's (M) and J.C. Penney (JCP) lost 0.8% share in 2017, with shareholdings remaining roughly flat for Target (TGT) and Kohl's (KSS). He maintains an Overweight rating and $1,550 price target on Amazon shares.
SHLD Sears
$3.50

-0.14 (-3.85%)

01/16/18
LOOP
01/16/18
NO CHANGE
Target $80
LOOP
Buy
Best Buy price target raised to $80 from $72 at Loop Capital
Loop Capital analyst Anthony Chukumba raised his price target on Best Buy (BBY) to $80, noting a more optimistic outlook for the stock thanks to some recent developments. The analyst cites strong November-December U.S. retail sales reports, PC shipments rising in Q4 for the first time in six years, and some closures of stores by Sears Holdings (SHLD) and Wal-Mart's (WMT) Sam's Club. Chukumba keeps his Buy rating on Best Buy.
02/05/18
JEFF
02/05/18
NO CHANGE
Target $100
JEFF
Buy
Bon-Ton Stores bankruptcy benefits Kohl's, says Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik notes that Bon-Ton Stores filed bankruptcy protection and provided the locations of the about 50 units slated for closure. The analyst now estimates near-term closures from Macy's (M), Sears (SHLD), Kmart, and Bon-Ton (BONT) should add about 18c to Kohl's (KSS) EPS and a 1.5% comp lift. Moreover, Konik believes the materialization of Bon-Ton's closures could be a "cherry on top" to accelerating fundamentals at Kohl's this year. He reiterates a Buy rating and $100 price target on Kohl's shares.
TGT Target
$73.10

0.85 (1.18%)

04/16/18
WOLF
04/16/18
UPGRADE
WOLF
Peer Perform
Target upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Wolfe Research
03/26/18
LOOP
03/26/18
NO CHANGE
Target $25
LOOP
Hold
Kroger merger with Target 'could make sense', says Loop Capital
Loop Capital analyst Andrew Wolf speculates that while "unlikely" in the near term, a merger between Kroger (KR) and Target (TGT) could make sense. Wolf notes that Kroger has been looking at digital commerce acquisitions and partnerships to maximize its delivery and merchandise, while Target has been an underperformer in the grocery segment. The analyst keeps his Hold rating and $25 price target on Kroger, but adds that its multiple could expand "modestly" as its comps improve this year.
04/02/18
TIGR
04/02/18
NO CHANGE
TIGR
Buy
Target strategic initiatives accelerating performance, says Tigress Financial
Tigress Financial analyst Ivan Feinseth kept his Buy rating on Target, saying that the company's ongoing strategic initiatives are driving revenue growth and operating efficiencies while creating a greater value proposition for its customers. Feinseth further expects Target's enhanced digital capability to support its future growth rates and also notes the company's initiatives to improve the shopping experience and increase comps through store upgrades.
FINL Finish Line
$13.57

0.01 (0.07%)

04/03/18
JEFF
04/03/18
NO CHANGE
JEFF
Buy
Jefferies web scrapes find less sneaker discounting by Under Armour
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik says his firm's March web scrapes point to sneaker pricing power at Under Armour (UAA), with discounts down in two of the last three months. Visits to Finish Line (FINL), Foot Locker (FL), and Under Armour websites reveal HOVR is sold out in many sizes/colors, indicating footwear momentum, Konik tells investors in a research note. Further, the analyst's regression analysis of credit card data points to sales upside for Under Armour relative to Street estimates. He keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Konik also believes Nike (NKE) continues to gain back share from Adidas (ADDYY) in running across the U.S.
03/30/18
JEFF
03/30/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $13.5
JEFF
Hold
Finish Line downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik downgraded Finish Line (FINL) to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $13.50 from $15. The company reported Q4 results on March 29 and on March 26 announced that it had entered into a definitive merger agreement with JD Sports Fashion under which JD will acquire the company for $13.50 per share in an all cash transaction. The expected timeline to close on the agreement is no earlier than June 2018. Finish Line shares closed on Thursday down 35c to $13.54.
03/27/18
SBSH
03/27/18
UPGRADE
Target $13.5
SBSH
Neutral
Finish Line upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi
Citi analyst Kate McShane upgraded Finish Line to Neutral and raised her price target for the shares to $13.50 on expectations the takeover by JD Sports will go through.
03/26/18
ADAM
03/26/18
NO CHANGE
Target $13.5
ADAM
Hold
Canaccord sees formidable competitor to Foot Locker with Finish Line deal
Canaccord Genuity analyst Camilo Lyon believes JD Sports' acquisition of Finish Line (FINL) creates a more formidable competitor to Foot Locker (FL). The combined company's scale and geographic diversity better matches Foot Locker's footprint, Lyon tells investors in a research note. The analyst does not expect a competing bid to emerge for Finish Line. As such, he maintains a Hold rating on the shares with a slightly increased price target of $13.50.

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Incyte

$66.48

-0.11 (-0.17%)

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$75.39

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SMLR

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Clovis

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Tesaro

$36.41

-1.27 (-3.37%)

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KIRK

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Summit Materials

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03/06/13
Barclays

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WRE

Washington REIT

$30.60

-0.32 (-1.03%)

16:32
09/24/18
09/24
16:32
09/24/18
16:32
Periodicals
Washington REIT explores sale of retail portfolio, Bloomberg reports »

Washington REIT is…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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  • 26

    Oct

SPX

S&P 500

$0.00

(0.00%)

, SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$291.09

-0.94 (-0.32%)

16:31
09/24/18
09/24
16:31
09/24/18
16:31
Periodicals
Trump says second meeting with Kim Jong Un likely 'quite soon,' AP says »

U.S. president Donald…

SPX

S&P 500

$0.00

(0.00%)

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$291.09

-0.94 (-0.32%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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