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TSLA

Tesla

$354.24

22.22 (6.69%)

13:28
06/12/18
06/12
13:28
06/12/18
13:28

Tesla rises after KeyBanc finds signs of Model 3 delivery pace improving

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) are on the rise after KeyBanc analyst Brad Erickson told investors that his checks with the company's sales centers showed Model 3 deliveries tracking ahead of his prior expectations for the quarter. As a result, the analyst raised his Model 3 deliveries estimate for the second quarter by 50% to 30,000. MODEL 3 VOLUMES SHOWING MEANINGFUL RAMP: In a research note to investors, KeyBanc's Erickson said his checks with 20 Tesla sales centers across the U.S. indicate Model 3 volumes are showing a "meaningful ramp," with deliveries tracking about 50% higher than his prior estimates for the quarter. With three weeks to go in the quarter, the analyst estimates the company is tracking to something between 30K-35K Model 3 deliveries in the quarter versus his prior view of 20K-25K. Following the positive checks, Erickson raised his Model 3 deliveries estimate for the second quarter to 30,000 from 20,000 and his 2018 estimate to 118,182 from 98,182. The analyst noted that he continues to expect gross margins on the Model 3 to turn positive in the third quarter and thinks evidence to support the bear case that Model 3 demand is softening or that production is not ramping is not likely to emerge in the near-term. Additionally, Erickson pointed out that concerns surrounding perceived safety quality seem to remain anecdotal. Based on his checks, he believes the perceived quality of Model 3s coming off the lines continues to improve relative to prior checks, and views this as one of the critical factors in Tesla maintaining its "almost legendary status" in the eyes of customers. Nonetheless, the analyst reiterates a Sector Weight rating on Tesla shares, citing his "core belief" there is a significant premium built into the stock on perceptions of the company's innovative superiority around the "five critical aspects" of the story; namely manufacturing, batteries, software, artificial intelligence and competition. PRICE ACTION: In early afternoon trading, shares of Tesla have gained $19.20, or nearly 6%, to $351.30.

TSLA Tesla
$354.24

22.22 (6.69%)

06/12/18
KEYB
06/12/18
NO CHANGE
KEYB
Sector Weight
KeyBanc raises Tesla Q2 Model 3 delivery estimate to 30K from 20K
KeyBanc analyst Brad Erickson said his checks with 20 Tesla sales centers across the U.S. indicate Model 3 volumes are showing a "meaningful ramp," with deliveries tracking about 50% higher than his prior estimates for the quarter. Following the positive checks, Erickson raised his Model 3 deliveries estimate for the second quarter to 30,000 from 20,000 and his 2018 estimate to 118,182 from 98,182. Erickson continues to expect gross margins on the Model 3 to turn positive in Q3 and thinks evidence to support the bear case that Model 3 demand is softening or that production isn't ramping is not likely to emerge in the near term. However, he keeps a Sector Weight rating on Tesla shares, citing his "core belief" there is a significant premium built into the stock.
06/08/18
NOMU
06/08/18
NO CHANGE
Target $450
NOMU
Buy
Tesla price target raised to $450 from $420 at Nomura Instinet
Nomura Instinet analyst Romit Shah raised his price target for Tesla to $450 from $420 after meeting with the company at its Fremont facility and the shareholder meeting earlier in the week. Tesla closed yesterday down $3.41 to $316.09. The analyst now believes Model 3 average selling prices are coming in above forecast due to stronger than expected demand for all-wheel-drive and performance configurations. He now estimates blended Model 3 ASP's will approach $60,000 in the second half of 2018. Further, Shah also anticipates cost leverage as Tesla scales to higher levels of production. Tesla can lower per unit costs considerably in the coming months, driven by improved fixed cost absorption and higher labor efficiency, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Shah keeps a Buy rating on Tesla shares.
06/07/18
MSCO
06/07/18
NO CHANGE
Target $291
MSCO
Equal Weight
Morgan Stanley doesn't see Tesla making 5,000 Model 3s per week until next year
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas thinks the move up in Tesla shares that added $5B to the company's market cap yesterday following the company's shareholder meeting is more of a reflection on bearish investor positioning than truly incremental data on fundamentals. CEO Elon Musk said at the meeting that it is "quite likely" Tesla will achieve Model 3 production of 5,000 per week by early July, but Jonas said he does not expect a 5,000/week production run-rate before the first half of fiscal 2019. In other words, "Tesla's CEO is saying that it is likely the company can achieve 5k per week one year ahead of our expectations," Jonas wrote in his note to investors. The analyst maintains his Equal Weight rating and $291 price target on Tesla shares.
06/07/18
PIPR
06/07/18
NO CHANGE
Target $369
PIPR
Overweight
Piper sees 'multiple positive takeaways' from Tesla shareholder meeting
Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter attributes the nearly 10% rally yesterday in shares of Tesla to "multiple positive takeaways" from the company's annual shareholder meeting. Tesla now expects to achieve weekly production of 5,000 Model 3 sedans by the end of June and management reiterated earlier guidance that GAAP net income will be positive in Q3, Potter tells investors in a research note. He notes Tesla still insists that no incremental debt or equity will be required. The analyst keeps an Overweight rating on Tesla shares with a $369 price target. The stock closed yesterday up 9.74%, or $28.38, to $319.50.

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