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TSLA

Tesla

$344.86

2.17 (0.63%)

05:19
06/14/18
06/14
05:19
06/14/18
05:19

Tesla Model 3 reservation cancellation rate is 66%, says Vertical Group

Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson estimates a 66% cancellation rate for the day one Tesla Model 3 reservations of 140,000. When applying the figure to his estimate for 582,000 in gross reservations through mid-April, the analyst calculates sales in early Model 3 reservations of just 197,000. Either Model 3 cancellation rates have spiked from the "initial euphoria period" of March 31, 2016 to April 30, 2016, or new reservations have "virtually disappeared," Johnson tells investors in a research note. He believes Tesla will exhaust all pre-orders sometime in Q1 of 2019. Model 3 sales beyond Q1 of next year will be limited by demand versus supply while growth for Tesla will likely depend on new product introductions, the analyst contends. Johnson thinks investors, as a result, will be forced to question Tesla's "valuation as a growth stock imminently." He does, however, expect CEO Elon Musk "to use a lot of one-time items to try to achieve profitability" in Q3 and Q4 of 2018. Profitability will rest largely on Tesla's ability to sell a record number of zero emission vehicle credits, which may prove difficult, Johnson predicts. He keeps a Sell rating on shares of Tesla with a $93 price target. The stock closed yesterday up $2.01 to $344.78.

TSLA Tesla
$344.86

2.17 (0.63%)

06/07/18
MSCO
06/07/18
NO CHANGE
Target $291
MSCO
Equal Weight
Morgan Stanley doesn't see Tesla making 5,000 Model 3s per week until next year
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas thinks the move up in Tesla shares that added $5B to the company's market cap yesterday following the company's shareholder meeting is more of a reflection on bearish investor positioning than truly incremental data on fundamentals. CEO Elon Musk said at the meeting that it is "quite likely" Tesla will achieve Model 3 production of 5,000 per week by early July, but Jonas said he does not expect a 5,000/week production run-rate before the first half of fiscal 2019. In other words, "Tesla's CEO is saying that it is likely the company can achieve 5k per week one year ahead of our expectations," Jonas wrote in his note to investors. The analyst maintains his Equal Weight rating and $291 price target on Tesla shares.
06/08/18
NOMU
06/08/18
NO CHANGE
Target $450
NOMU
Buy
Tesla price target raised to $450 from $420 at Nomura Instinet
Nomura Instinet analyst Romit Shah raised his price target for Tesla to $450 from $420 after meeting with the company at its Fremont facility and the shareholder meeting earlier in the week. Tesla closed yesterday down $3.41 to $316.09. The analyst now believes Model 3 average selling prices are coming in above forecast due to stronger than expected demand for all-wheel-drive and performance configurations. He now estimates blended Model 3 ASP's will approach $60,000 in the second half of 2018. Further, Shah also anticipates cost leverage as Tesla scales to higher levels of production. Tesla can lower per unit costs considerably in the coming months, driven by improved fixed cost absorption and higher labor efficiency, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Shah keeps a Buy rating on Tesla shares.
06/12/18
KEYB
06/12/18
NO CHANGE
KEYB
Sector Weight
KeyBanc raises Tesla Q2 Model 3 delivery estimate to 30K from 20K
KeyBanc analyst Brad Erickson said his checks with 20 Tesla sales centers across the U.S. indicate Model 3 volumes are showing a "meaningful ramp," with deliveries tracking about 50% higher than his prior estimates for the quarter. Following the positive checks, Erickson raised his Model 3 deliveries estimate for the second quarter to 30,000 from 20,000 and his 2018 estimate to 118,182 from 98,182. Erickson continues to expect gross margins on the Model 3 to turn positive in Q3 and thinks evidence to support the bear case that Model 3 demand is softening or that production isn't ramping is not likely to emerge in the near term. However, he keeps a Sector Weight rating on Tesla shares, citing his "core belief" there is a significant premium built into the stock.
06/13/18
BARD
06/13/18
NO CHANGE
Target $411
BARD
Outperform
Tesla reiterated as a Fresh Pick at Baird
Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated Tesla as a Fresh Pick following the company's announcement of plans to cut roughly 9% of its workforce as part of an effort to reduce costs. The analyst views the move as a step toward profitability and believes the negative reaction is incongruent to bear arguments about the company's lack of profitability. Kallo reiterated his Outperform rating and $411 price target on Tesla shares.

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