Today's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed a robust round of Q2 retail sales data that narrowed the gap to the tax-related Q1-Q2 disposable income surge, with May gains of 0.8% for the headline and 0.9% ex-autos, after April boosts to 0.4% for both from respective gains of 0.2% and 0.3%. Analysts also saw a slightly weaker than assumed 0.3% April business inventory rise, a 4k initial claims drop to a lean 218k alongside a Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rise to 55.8 from 54.8 in the same week, and a 49k continuing claims plunge to a tight 1,697k new cycle-low. Analysts saw a largely expected 0.6% May oil-led import price rise alongside a much stronger than expected 0.6% gain for export prices, as export prices with or without agriculture continue to outperform non-petroleum import prices. Analysts still assume a Q1 GDP growth boost to 2.4% from 2.2%, with 3.6% GDP growth in Q2, and analysts expect a 200k June nonfarm payroll gain, though upside risks into mid-year on both fronts are mounting.