Michigan sentiment fell to a 6-month low of 97.1
Michigan sentiment fell to a 6-month low of 97.1 in July from 98.2 in June and 98.0 in May, versus a 14-year high of 101.4 in March, as the measure oscillates around prior peaks of 100.7 last October and 98.5 from January of 2017. Analysts've seen a mixed pattern of revisions for Michigan sentiment in the 2018 final reports, which culminated in downward revisions of 1.1 in June and 0.8 in May. Analysts've seen a 0.1 average downward revision in 2018, following a 0.2 average downward revision in 2017. For other surveys, the IBD/TIPP index rose to 56.4 from 53.9 in June, versus a slightly higher 56.7 cycle-high in February. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index rose to a lofty 58.0 in the second week of July from 57.6 in the first week and a 56.6 average in June, versus April cycle-highs of 58.1 for the weekly measure and 57.5 for the month average. Analysts expect consumer confidence to rise to 127.0 from 126.4 in June but a higher 128.8 in May, versus a 17-year high of 130.0 in February. Analysts've seen a big over-performance for the various confidence measures since 2016 relative to the lean path for consumption and payrolls, following an historically typical gap between 2014 and 2016, and oddly weak readings through the first five years of the expansion.