Today's U.S. reports
Today's U.S. reports revealed a July bounce in the Philly Fed to 25.7 from a 19-month low of 19.9 in June but a 1-year high of 34.4 in May, with an ISM-adjusted Philly Fed rise to 59.7 from 59.4 in June and a 45-year high of 62.5 in May. Analysts saw an 8k initial claims drop to a new 48-year low of 207k in the BLS survey week that extended the 17k drop to 215k (was 214k) at the start of the month, as claims experienced a big two-week drop due to diminishing auto retooling distortions and last week's July 4th holiday. The leading indicators report revealed a 0.5% June rise that left a remarkable 26-month stretch since the last decline. Finally, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index popped to a 58.8 new cycle-high in the third week of July, versus a 58.1 prior cycle-high in April. Continued strength in producer sentiment, remarkably tight claims levels, a firming vehicle assembly rate through the retooling period, and lofty consumer confidence signal ongoing upside risk for nonfarm payroll growth, which analysts still peg at 210k in July.