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BIIB

Biogen

$358.31

-0.28 (-0.08%)

, ESALY

Eisai

$0.00

(0.00%)

13:14
07/19/18
07/19
13:14
07/19/18
13:14

Before the Move: Watch Biogen ahead of Alzheimer's data presentation

Biogen will be presenting data from its Alzheimer's disease clinical development portfolio at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference in Chicago, which will take place between July 22 and 26. Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges believes data from BAN2401 could drive Biogen's shares $20 down if the company presents a marginal result or $40 up on very positive data. ALZHEIMER'S DATA AT AAIC: Biogen has announced it will present data from its Alzheimer's disease clinical development portfolio at the upcoming Alzheimer's Association International Conference in Chicago. Data being presented are part of Biogen's research programs targeting several of the identified causes of Alzheimer's disease, focusing on early-stage disease. Biogen presentations will include a new analysis from the Phase 1b study of aducanumab, an investigational anti-amyloid beta antibody therapy for mild cognitive impairment and mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. Aducanumab is currently being evaluated in two global Phase 3 studies, ENGAGE and EMERGE, which are designed to evaluate its safety and efficacy in slowing cognitive and functional impairment. In addition, Biogen's collaborator Eisai (ESALY) will present topline Phase 2 clinical study results of BAN2401, an anti-amyloid beta protofibril antibody, and data on elenbecestat, a BACE inhibitor. $40 UP, $20 DOWN: In a research note ahead of AACI, Leerink's Porges told investors that Biogen's stock faces "tremendous volatility" around the presentation of BAN2401 data. The analyst's scenario analysis suggests that a marginal result could see Biogen's stock fall to the $334 range, while very positive data could offer upside to about $393. Based on his analysis, the analyst believes that the two most important things to see next week are a sizeable effect on the ADCOMS - Alzheimer's Disease Composite Score - endpoint in the highest dose at 18 months and strong trends toward benefit, perhaps reaching statistical significance, on traditional cognitive measures that are sub-components of the combined ADCOMS endpoint. In his research, Porges found a substantial gap between investors' and physicians' thresholds for a meaningful positive effect in reducing cognitive decline. Investors have suggested that a 20% reduction in the rate of decline would be positive whereas even "amyloid-ologists" in the specialist community suggested that they would need to see higher degrees of benefit to be impressed, he contended. Nonetheless, the analyst pointed out that it seems highly unlikely that the phase 2 BAN2401 study would suffice for regulatory approval without a phase 3 trial, even if cognitive endpoints are met with high significance. It seems more likely to him that, if the data next week are encouraging, Biogen and Eisai will begin planning a phase 3 pivotal study over the next 12 months to maintain BAN2401 as a back-up option to aducanumab ahead of the 2020 readout. Porges reiterated a Market Perform rating and $325 price target on Biogen shares. Meanwhile, his peer at Morgan Stanley told investors that he remains constructive on Biogen into full BAN2401 data. Analyst Matthew Harrison believes an ADCOMS response above investors' expected level of 20% is likely and could drive Biogen's shares up as much as 20%. Harrison reiterated an Overweight rating and $366 price target on Biogen shares. PRICE ACTION: In afternoon trading, shares of Biogen are fractionally down to $358.50. "Before the Move" is The Fly's recurring series of exclusive stories that identify potentially market moving events, along with analyst predictions, ahead of the news.

BIIB

Biogen

$358.31

-0.28 (-0.08%)

ESALY

Eisai

$0.00

(0.00%)

  • 24

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  • 30

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  • 31

    Jul

BIIB Biogen
$358.31

-0.28 (-0.08%)

07/10/18
07/10/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI. 2. Chipotle (CMG) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho with analyst Jeremy Scott saying after an 80% rally since the new CEO appointment, Chipotle shares currently price in an "aggressive recovery" in both comps and margins. 3. Biogen (BIIB) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird with analyst Brian Skorney saying that following a quick ~35% move since his April upgrade, he is taking his gains off the table on the back of the BAN2401 results. 4. eBay (EBAY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at SunTrust with analyst Youssef Squali citing the anticipated impact of the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that forces collection of online sales tax on a state level and reverses the 1992 e-commerce precedent. 5. Square (SQ) assumed and downgraded to a Hold from Buy at Jefferies and a Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
07/10/18
MZHO
07/10/18
NO CHANGE
MZHO
Buy
Biogen, Eisai not sharing details on BAN2401 presentation at AAIC, says Mizuho
After Biogen (BIIB) and partner Eisai's (ESALY) recent announcement that BAN2401 demonstrated statistically significant slowing in clinical decline and reduction of amyloid beta accumulation in a trial of Alzheimer's patients, Mizuho analyst Salim Syed said he has checked with both companies and neither is divulging any details about what sort of data on the trial will be shared at the upcoming AAIC meeting. He maintains a Buy rating and $423 price target on Biogen shares.
07/11/18
PIPR
07/11/18
NO CHANGE
Target $365
PIPR
Overweight
Biogen price target raised to $365 from $353 at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Raymond raised his price target for Biogen (BIIB) to $365 saying a survey of 101 neurologists gives him increased confidence in the staying power of the company's multiple sclerosis franchise. Tecfidera market share "edged up slightly" during the quarter, and the survey shows signs of Roche's (RHHBY) Ocrevus "hitting a bit of a wall," Raymond tells investors in a research note. Further, the analyst continues to hear feedback that Celgene's (CELG) ozanimod "will be minimally differentiated." Despite increased signs of payer activism in the space, Biogen's MS franchise is well positioned for the near-to-intermediate term, Raymond contends. He raised his estimates for Tecfidera and keeps an Overweight rating on Biogen.
07/19/18
LEER
07/19/18
NO CHANGE
Target $325
LEER
Market Perform
Biogen BAN2401 data could drive shares $20 down, $40 up, says Leerink
Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges believes Biogen's stock faces "tremendous volatility" around the presentation of BAN2401 data at next week's Alzheimer's Association International Conference meeting. The analyst's scenario analysis suggests that a marginal result could see Biogen's stock fall to the $334 range, while very positive data could offer upside to about $393. He reiterates a Market Perform rating and $325 price target on the shares.
ESALY Eisai
$0.00

(0.00%)

07/06/18
MSCO
07/06/18
NO CHANGE
Target $369
MSCO
Overweight
Biogen likely to be up 5%-10% on positive Alzheimer's data, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison said the fact that Eisai (ESALY) and Biogen's (BIIB) BAN2401 trial achieved positive topline results at an 18 month landmark analysis is a "clear positive" for the perception of aducanumab and he expects Biogen's shares to be up 5% to over 10% following the news. Harrison added that he would expect full data to be reported at the CTAD meeting in October as he thinks the AAIC meeting coming up in late July is too close. He keeps an Overweight rating and $369 price target on Biogen shares.
07/06/18
NOMU
07/06/18
UPGRADE
NOMU
Buy
Eisai upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura Instinet

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