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UA

Under Armour

$19.14

-0.1 (-0.52%)

, UAA

Under Armour

$20.62

0.01 (0.05%)

10:57
07/25/18
07/25
10:57
07/25/18
10:57

On The Fly: What to watch in Under Armour earnings report

Under Armour (UA, UAA) is scheduled to report results of its second fiscal quarter before the market open on Wednesday, July 26, with a conference call scheduled for 8:30 am EDT. What to watch for: 1. GUIDANCE: In May, Under Armour backed its fiscal 2018 adjusted EPS view of 14c-19c, below analysts' consensus at the time of 21c, on revenue up at a low single-digit percentage rate reflecting a mid-single-digit decline in North America and international growth of greater than 25%. At the time, the company forecast Q2 adjusted EPS (10c)-(9c), also below the (6c) consensus, on revenue growth similar to Q1. The company has previously said it expected the revenue growth rate in Q2 to be the highest of the year. Wedbush analyst Christopher Svezia said that he sees a pathway towards financial improvement and believes the company's FY18 outlook seems "achievable," but contended that brand direction is a "major" stumbling block. Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell said the most pressing concerns into the Q2 results are inventory levels and the company's ability to maintain gross profit margin guidance for the full year. Barclays analyst Matthew McClintock said Under Armour appears well positioned to meet or exceed guidance for Q2, but questioned if that is enough to make the stock work with the shares up 54% year-to-date. Even if Under Armour beats, the recent stock price appreciation likely limits upside in the stock from here, he said. 2. RESTRUCTURING UPDATE: Last year, Under Armour approved a restructuring plan to better align its financial resources to support the company's efforts as the consumer landscape shifts. As part of the plan, Under Armour is cutting about 2% of its global workforce of 15,000. The company said it is streamlining "all aspects" of the organization to improve business operations. In conjunction with its last earnings report, Under Armour said its transformation is "on the right track" and that Under Armour is in the "midst of an inflection point." CEO Kevin Plank said he expected the majority of restructuring charges to be recorded in the first half of the year. Barclays analyst McClintock believes the company is more than halfway through its turnaround plan "with an inflection on the horizon." 3. COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT: Analysts and investors will listen for comments from the company on how it views the current athletic environment. Jefferies analyst Randal Konik said last week that July webscrapes illustrate that Under Armour's percentage of product on discount is down for the fourth month in a row, while Adidas's (ADDYY) is up five months in a row. The analyst's visits to Finish Line (FINL), Foot Locker (FL), and Under Armour websites revealed the HOVR and Curry 5 sneakers are sold out in many sizes/colors, indicating "strong sell-through." OTR Global's checks indicated Under Armor's Q2 apparel and footwear growth is facing competitive headwinds, particularly from Nike (NKE). Citi analyst Kate McShane believes Under Armour and Ralph Lauren (RL) "have a lot in common," as both are founder-led companies with iconic brands in the midst of a turnaround.

UA

Under Armour

$19.14

-0.1 (-0.52%)

UAA

Under Armour

$20.62

0.01 (0.05%)

NKE

Nike

$76.13

0.6 (0.79%)

ADDYY

Adidas

$0.00

(0.00%)

FINL

Finish Line

$0.00

(0.00%)

RL

Ralph Lauren

$134.62

1.36 (1.02%)

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    Sep

UA Under Armour
$19.14

-0.1 (-0.52%)

07/24/18
DBAB
07/24/18
NO CHANGE
Target $16
DBAB
Hold
Deutsche has negative bias on Under Armour with shares up 44%
Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Trussell says he has a negative bias on Under Armour with the stock up 44% year-to-date. He maintains a Hold rating on the shares with a $16 price target. The most pressing concerns into the Q2 results are inventory levels and the company's ability to maintain gross profit margin guidance for the full year, Trussell tells investors in a pre-earnings research note. The analyst views Under Armour's valuation as expensive at current share levels.
07/20/18
WEDB
07/20/18
NO CHANGE
Target $18
WEDB
Neutral
Under Armour price target raised to $18 from $15 at Wedbush
Wedbush analyst Christopher Svezia raised his price target on Under Armour to $18 from $15 ahead of the company's earnings report on July 26 but maintained a Neutral rating, citing the lack of visibility around a global growth strategy and margin recapture ramp. In a research note to investors, Svezia says that he sees a pathway towards financial improvement and believes the company's FY18 outlook seems "achievable," but contends that brand direction is a "major" stumbling block. Svezia says he, like other investors, has "more questions than answers" and awaits a prospective analyst meeting later this year.
07/19/18
JEFF
07/19/18
NO CHANGE
JEFF
Buy
Jefferies says Under Armour discounts down four straight months, buy shares
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik says July webscrapes illustrate that Under Armour's (UAA) percentage of product on discount is down for the fourth month in a row, while Adidas's (ADDYY) is up five months in a row. The analyst's visits to Finish Line (FINL), Foot Locker (FL), and Under Armour websites reveal the HOVR and Curry 5 sneakers are sold out in many sizes/colors, indicating "strong sell-through." Further, Nike (NKE) continues to regain share from Adidas in running across the U.S., with strength in Air VaporMax and Air Max 270, Konik tells investors in a research note titled "SNEAKER WARS: UAA HOVRing Above The Rest. Buy This Stock." He believes the data are encouraging and reinforce his belief in the upside potential for Under Armour shares.
07/18/18
SBSH
07/18/18
NO CHANGE
Target $22
SBSH
Neutral
Under Armour turnaround similar to Ralph Lauren's, says Citi
Citi analyst Kate McShane believes Under Armour (UAA) and Ralph Lauren (RL) "have a lot in common." Both are founder-led companies with iconic brands in the midst of a turnaround, McShane tells investors in a research note. Further, the analyst notes that both companies are significantly reducing product size, modifying distribution and focusing on international opportunities. McShane believes that Ralph Lauren has an 18-24 month head start on its turnaround strategy, however. The analyst raised her price target for Under Armour to $22 from $18 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
UAA Under Armour
$20.62

0.01 (0.05%)

NKE Nike
$76.13

0.6 (0.79%)

06/29/18
JEFF
06/29/18
NO CHANGE
Target $75
JEFF
Buy
Nike shares remain expensive despite strong Q4, says Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik says that while Nike last night reported strong Q4 results, the shares remain expensive. The analyst raised his price target for the stock to $75 from $68 and reiterates a Hold rating on the name. Konik continues to like Foot Locker (FL) as a less expensive way to play Nike, and Under Armour (UAA) as a better way to play a strengthening athletic space.
06/29/18
FBCO
06/29/18
NO CHANGE
Target $90
FBCO
Outperform
Nike price target raised to $90 from $78 at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Michael Binetti reiterated an Outperform rating on Nike and raised his price target to $90 from $78 following the company's Q4 results, telling investors in a research note that the results signal that several years of bloated inventories, lackluster innovation and market share losses are now clearly inflecting. Binetti thinks Nike is well positioned to monetize reversing multi-year share losses to drive upside to guidance, but notes that Nike's transformation acceleration to more of a direct/digital retailer will put significant upward pressure on the economics of the business vs. historical levels.
07/17/18
WELS
07/17/18
DOWNGRADE
WELS
Market Perform
Adidas downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Tom Nikic downgraded Adidas (ADDYY) to Market Perform as he believes the tides have shifted in the athletic sector, which will slow the company's top- and bottom-line growth and limit upside potential to the shares. The analyst has become more cautious on the stock as Adidas is facing a two-pronged attack from their competitors globally, with Nike (NKE) gaining steam on the higher end of the sneaker market and Vans currently the "hot brand" in the $60-$100 price range. While Adidas has introduced new platforms to try to offset the maturing styles, results for silhouettes such as Prophere, Deerupt, Arkyn and Continental have been mixed, he contends, adding that the company's surprisingly-rapid deceleration in Western Europe presents risk to the North American market share thesis, as Europe has been a leading indicator for the brand over the years. Nikic sees near-term risk to estimates, as he thinks Q2 consensus EPS does not adequately account for the marketing investment around the World Cup, plus there's the fact that a Nike-sponsored team won the World Cup and the company will be lapping pre-World Cup sell-in beginning in Q4.
ADDYY Adidas
$0.00

(0.00%)

06/12/18
JEFF
06/12/18
NO CHANGE
JEFF
Jefferies retailer survey 'increasingly positive' for Under Armour, Nike
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik says data form his firm's May footwear webscrapes and survey of 200 footwear retailers have become "increasingly positive" for Under Armour (UAA, UA) and Nike (NKE). Under Armour's products appear to be resonating better with the consumer, and Nike is gaining back share from Adidas (ADDYY), whose discounting hit a multiyear high, Konik tells investors in a research note. At Under Armour, discounting levels are improving, and new product lines, such as the HOVR Phantom, are selling out, the analyst adds. Further, he says Nike's new Air VaporMax is driving overall strength for the brand, while the recent introduction of the Air Max 270 is performing well.
06/26/18
PIPR
06/26/18
NO CHANGE
Target $64
PIPR
Neutral
Nike has potential to deliver upside to EPS estimates in Q4, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy maintained a Neutral rating and $64 price target on Nike (NKE) shares ahead of the company's quarterly earnings on June 28 after the market close. She believes there is the potential for Nike to deliver upside to EPS estimates in Q4, but sees revenue closer to in line with ongoing strength in Europe and China. In a research note to investors, Murphy contends that investors may be expecting "too much" from the North America inflection, and sees more risk than upside to the Street at this point as smaller brands continue to drive more incremental growth and adidas (ADDYY) captures most new shelf-space.
FINL Finish Line
$0.00

(0.00%)

04/03/18
JEFF
04/03/18
NO CHANGE
JEFF
Buy
Jefferies web scrapes find less sneaker discounting by Under Armour
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik says his firm's March web scrapes point to sneaker pricing power at Under Armour (UAA), with discounts down in two of the last three months. Visits to Finish Line (FINL), Foot Locker (FL), and Under Armour websites reveal HOVR is sold out in many sizes/colors, indicating footwear momentum, Konik tells investors in a research note. Further, the analyst's regression analysis of credit card data points to sales upside for Under Armour relative to Street estimates. He keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Konik also believes Nike (NKE) continues to gain back share from Adidas (ADDYY) in running across the U.S.
03/30/18
JEFF
03/30/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $13.5
JEFF
Hold
Finish Line downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik downgraded Finish Line (FINL) to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $13.50 from $15. The company reported Q4 results on March 29 and on March 26 announced that it had entered into a definitive merger agreement with JD Sports Fashion under which JD will acquire the company for $13.50 per share in an all cash transaction. The expected timeline to close on the agreement is no earlier than June 2018. Finish Line shares closed on Thursday down 35c to $13.54.
03/27/18
SBSH
03/27/18
UPGRADE
Target $13.5
SBSH
Neutral
Finish Line upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citi
Citi analyst Kate McShane upgraded Finish Line to Neutral and raised her price target for the shares to $13.50 on expectations the takeover by JD Sports will go through.
RL Ralph Lauren
$134.62

1.36 (1.02%)

06/21/18
UBSW
06/21/18
INITIATION
Target $110
UBSW
Sell
Ralph Lauren initiated with a Sell at UBS
UBS analyst Jay Sole started Ralph Lauren with a Sell rating and $110 price target.
06/22/18
PIPR
06/22/18
NO CHANGE
Target $125
PIPR
Underweight
Ralph Lauren price target raised to $125 from $104 at Piper Jaffray
After spending two days with management, Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy raised her price target for Ralph Lauren to $125 from $104. The analyst, however, keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. While encouraged by the "influx of new thought leaders at the helm" and the "improved discipline" underpinning the company, the analyst struggles to get more constructive on the stock at the current valuation. Murphy hasn't seen consistent evidence that Ralph Lauren is improving with younger customers and believes this will take time. She believes the company is in "show-me mode."
06/08/18
FBCO
06/08/18
NO CHANGE
Target $153
FBCO
Outperform
Ralph Lauren gave 'credible' plan at Analyst Day, says Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Michael Binetti reiterated an Outperform rating and $153 price target on Ralph Lauren, telling investors in a research note that he was "impressed" with the company's Analyst Day. While he says targets leave room for a "wide" FY23 EPS range -- $10-$14 -- he thinks the most likely outcome is $10-$12, or a 11%-15% five-year CAGR. Binetti thinks Ralph Lauren gave a "credible" plan that balanced the last innings of a pullback with new initiatives, and believes the details offered several sources of conservatism/upside.

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