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SPOT

Spotify

$185.55

-2.31 (-1.23%)

, FB

Facebook

$216.41

1.74 (0.81%)

12:10
07/25/18
07/25
12:10
07/25/18
12:10

On The Fly: What to watch in Spotify earnings report

Spotify (SPOT) is scheduled to report results of its second quarter before market open on Thursday, July 26, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 am ET. What to watch: 1. USER METRICS: Spotify's monthly active users, or MAUs, are a measure of its popularity and growth potential. In the first quarter, Spotify reported 170M MAUs, up 30% year-over-year, and 99M ad-supported MAUs, up 21% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter. In addition, the company reported that Premium Subscribers grew to 75M, up 45% year-over-year. Watch for updated numbers in the report, as well as management commentary on user engagement. 2. GUIDANCE: With its last report, Spotify guided to Q2 revenue of EUR1.1B-EUR1.3B, up 10%-29% year-over-year. The guidance included a negative impact of approximately EUR95M from foreign exchange rate. The company also forecasted Q2 total MAUs of 175M-180M, up 28%-32% year-over-year, and total Premium Subscribers of 79M-83M, up 34%-41% year-over-year. 3. INITIATIVES AND PARTNERSHIPS: Since the company's direct listing in April, the company has taken on a number of initiatives and formed partnerships to attract consumers and improve user experience. On April 11, the company announced the expansion of its partnership with Hulu to offer a new $12.99-a-month subscription plan. The plan, Spotify Premium, now with Hulu, brings the two services together and allows subscribers to access ad-free music on Spotify Premium, as well as television shows and movies on Hulu's ad-supported service. On April 12, Spotify announced it had acquired Loudr, a company that enables content creators, aggregators and digital music services to identify, track and pay royalties to music publishers. On April 24, the company unveiled a new Ad-Supported experience to offer greater consumer control and an increased focus on curation and personalization. The new experience enables Ad-Supported users to listen to any track in their top 15 Spotify curated playlists completely on-demand. Additionally, Spotify introduced Data Saver, an optimization switch users can activate so that less mobile data is used while streaming music. The company also announced integration with Facebook (FB) and Instagram in May, allowing users to post what they're listening to through a share to Instagram Stories feature.

SPOT

Spotify

$185.55

-2.31 (-1.23%)

FB

Facebook

$216.41

1.74 (0.81%)

  • 25

    Jul

  • 26

    Jul

SPOT Spotify
$185.55

-2.31 (-1.23%)

07/25/18
07/25/18
NO CHANGE

Fly Intel: Today's top analyst calls on Wall Street
Check out today's top analyst calls from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly. VERTICAL GROUP RAISES SNAP RATING: Vertical Group analyst Phil Leggiere upgraded Snap (SNAP) to Mixed from Negative citing expectations for strong second half 2018 spending. Snap is higher by over 1% in late morning trading. PIVOTAL CUTS SPOTIFY TO HOLD: Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak downgraded Spotify (SPOT) to Hold from Buy with an unchanged price target of $200. The analyst cited valuation for the downgrade, given the "material rise" in the shares since his initiation report on May 29. Further, he increasingly views consensus 2018 premium monthly active user growth expectations as too aggressive. He lowered his Q2 premium subscriber MAU estimate from 6M to 5.5M, versus the consensus at 7M. Spotify's current valuation is fair and does not leave a lot of room for "operational/market hiccups," Wlodarczak told investors. DEUTSCHE SEES AMERITRADE/E-TRADE MERGER MAKING SENSE: Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Bedell continues to see a merger between TD Ameritrade (AMTD) and E-Trade (ETFC) as making strategic and financial sense. With TD Ameritrade's integration of recently acquired Scottrade progressing better than expectations, a merger scenario with E-Trade is "becoming more compelling," Bedell told investors. He updated his merger scenario model, raising his hypothetical merger scenario value of E-Trade from TD Ameritrade's perspective to $77 from $72, nearly a 30% premium to the current share price. Bedell raised his price target for TD Ameritrade to $77 from $72 and for E-Trade to $72 from $70. He kept Buy ratings on both stocks. GORDON HASKETT UPGRADES TARGET, DOWNGRADES WALMART: Gordon Haskett analyst Chuck Grom upgraded Target (TGT) to Accumulate from Hold and raised his price target on shares to $86 from 74 to reflect the recent acceleration in traffic. Grom said geolocation data and proprietary card data support his Q2 4.5% comp growth estimate. Grom also downgraded Walmart (WMT) to Hold from Accumulate and lowered its price target to $92 from $98. Grom thinks there are few near-term catalysts on the horizon and said the margin outlook is not as transparent following a period of improvement and stabilization. He expects Walmart shares to be range bound for the balance of the year.
07/25/18
07/25/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Spotify (SPOT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Pivotal Research with analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak citing valuation. 2. Eli Lilly (LLY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg with analyst Laura Sutcliffe saying the company reported "very good" Q2 results and its sales growth is built on the "solid proposition" of Trulicity, but the company is in the process of re-stocking its late-stage pipeline both internally and via deals. 3. Walmart (WMT) downgraded to Hold from Accumulate at Gordon Haskett with analyst Chuck Grom saying he thinks there are few near-term catalysts on the horizon and the margin outlook is not as transparent following a period of improvement and stabilization, and expects shares to be range bound for the balance of the year. 4. Hormel Foods (HRL) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Mizuho with analyst Jeremy Scott saying "volatile and retreating" pork margins bring rising risks to Hormel's earnings. 5. BJ's Wholesale (BJ) downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Gordon Haskett with analyst Chuck Grom citing share strength following the IPO. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
07/25/18
MSCO
07/25/18
NO CHANGE
Target $190
MSCO
Overweight
Apple Music threat to Spotify 'manageable,' says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne notes that streaming adoption is accelerating and he believes rising smartphone penetration, increased wireless network capacity, smart speaker adoption and connected cars can support a market with multiple "winners." Additionally, Android's global lead over iOS suggests the threat to Spotify (SPOT), the global leader in music streaming, from Apple Music (AAPL) is "manageable," Swinburne tells investors. He maintains an Overweight rating and $190 price target on Spotify shares, though he sees a "bull case" for the stock reaching $300 per share.
07/25/18
DBAB
07/25/18
NO CHANGE
Target $170
DBAB
Hold
Spotify price target raised to $170 from $155 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Lloyd Walmsley raised his price target for Spotify to $170 ahead of the company's Q2 results and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The analyst expects "solid" near-term results from Spotify as the company benefits from some new country launches and enhancements to its free trial. He also sees the company's gross margins continuing to benefit from improvement in ad monetization and the benefit from the latest major label deals.
FB Facebook
$216.41

1.74 (0.81%)

07/25/18
BMOC
07/25/18
NO CHANGE
Target $210
BMOC
Market Perform
Facebook price target raised to $210 from $170 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon raised his price target on Facebook to $210 after his "deep dive" into the company's main platform and Instagram advertising revenue and format, estimating a $52.8B 2018 advertising revenue generation from the two. The analyst also forecasts a 3-year annualized growth for Facebook at 23% and Instagram at 80% as part of his analysis, driven by the increasing adoption of video ad format in advertising placement. Salmon keeps his Market Perform rating on Facebook, citing "growing costs necessary for content to drive TV budgets to the platform, R&D spending on tools to both manage user data and monitor content, a lack of visibility into monetization at Messenger/WhatsApp, and the emergence of Amazon's (AMZN) advertising business."
07/23/18
JPMS
07/23/18
NO CHANGE
Target $242
JPMS
Overweight
JPMorgan positive on Facebook into Wednesday's earnings report
JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth is positive heading into Facebook's Q2 earnings report on July 25. He believes that both user engagement and monetization have "remained strong," despite data security concerns and Europe's General Data Protection Regulation. The analyst's industry checks suggest Facebook continues to see strong demand from a large and growing advertiser base and that return on investment "remains very compelling." Anmuth keeps an Overweight rating on the shares with a $242 price target.
07/20/18
MKMP
07/20/18
NO CHANGE
Target $255
MKMP
Buy
Facebook expected Q2 expense ramp may be too aggressive, says MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Rob Sanderson is keeping his Buy rating and $255 price target on Facebook (FB) ahead of its results next week, saying he expects revenue upside and believes that the anticipated ramp in expenses implied in the consensus for earnings may be too aggressive. The analyst also cites greater visibility on monetization and opportunities in WhatsApp and Messenger justifying a higher multiple, which he sees at a full 3-point discount relative to Google (GOOGL) in spite of Facebook's much higher rate of growth.
07/20/18
STFL
07/20/18
NO CHANGE
Target $242
STFL
Buy
Facebook price target raised to $242 ahead of earnings at Stifel
Stifel analyst Scott Devitt is predicting "modest" revenue growth deceleration to 45% growth year-over-year in Q2 from Facebook when it reports next Wednesday, July 25. Across his coverage, he is shifting his view to incrementally favor mega cap U.S. digital advertising over e-commerce outside of China in the near-term as digital advertising growth momentum continues and he sees the potential for multiple expansion. Devitt keeps a Buy rating on Facebook and raised his price target on the stock to $242 from $202.

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AMZN

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ORCL

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AZN

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BMY

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LLY

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MRK

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SNY

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BHVN

Biohaven Pharmaceutical

$44.16

-0.61 (-1.36%)

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CE

Celanese

$107.01

0.9 (0.85%)

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F

Ford

$10.20

-0.06 (-0.58%)

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Periodicals
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RTN

Raytheon

$178.55

2.45 (1.39%)

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UTX

United Technologies

$132.37

1.08 (0.82%)

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LMT

Lockheed Martin

$356.90

0.675 (0.19%)

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ARES

Ares Management

$28.13

-0.305 (-1.07%)

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HAFC

Hanmi Financial

$21.68

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PAYS

Paysign

$17.49

-0.48 (-2.67%)

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MEOH

Methanex

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0.83 (1.96%)

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SHIP

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SONM

Sonim

$13.42

0.24 (1.82%)

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KINS

Kingstone Companies

$8.81

0.09 (1.03%)

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BA

Boeing

$377.34

16.17 (4.48%)

, MSFT

Microsoft

$136.62

0.33 (0.24%)

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BA

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$377.34

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MSFT

Microsoft

$136.62

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AMZN

Amazon.com

$1,964.78

-13.57 (-0.69%)

AAPL

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WMT

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DIS

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GCI

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CRWD

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SKX

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PACB

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ILMN

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CHWY

Chewy

$30.70

-2.09 (-6.37%)

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VIX

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options

$0.00

(0.00%)

16:20
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$NSD

NASDAQ Market Internals

$0.00

(0.00%)

16:17
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07/19
16:17
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16:17
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NASDAQ market internals summary »

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BCBP

BCB Bancorp

$12.71

-0.09 (-0.70%)

16:17
07/19/19
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16:17
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16:17
Earnings
BCB Bancorp reports Q2 EPS 30c, consensus 30c »

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$NYE

NYSE Market Internals

$0.00

(0.00%)

16:16
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16:16
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16:16
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NYSE market internals summary »

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CNXM

CNX Midstream Partners

$14.30

-0.205 (-1.41%)

16:16
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07/19
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16:16
Hot Stocks
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