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NTRI

Nutrisystem

$43.50

4.05 (10.27%)

05:18
08/06/18
08/06
05:18
08/06/18
05:18

Nutrisystem rallies after Legion Partners sees path to $90 share price

Legion Partners Asset Management late Thursday disclosed a 5.22% stake in Nutrisystem, representing over 1.5M shares. The filing allows for activism. Legion believes the current market price of the shares does not reflect Legion's intrinsic value. In the firm's view, one of the key areas that does not appear to be well understood or fully appreciated by the market is the opportunity for the company to improve the efficiency of its approximately $200M annual marketing expense. Historically, Nutrisystem has relied primarily on short form television marketing, Legion writes in a regulatory filing. Further, Nutrisystem's cost of acquiring an individual customer has increased annually from approximately $184 in 2007 to over $300 in 2017, the firm contends, citing its own estimate. Legion Partners believes the company can lower customer acquisition costs "materially" over the next several years by shifting its media mix to more effective digital marketing channels and initiatives. In addition, the firm believes improvements to the company's digital product portfolio "can substantially increase customer lifetime value." The "impact of gaining marketing efficiencies through digital advertising and upgrading the digital product portfolio should be reflected in a rapid expansion in the profitability" of Nutrisystem, contends Legion. It estimates that if the company can improve its overall digital strategy and marketing efficiency, the resulting decline in customer acquisition costs and reacceleration in customer growth could double reported earnings per share from $1.90 in fiscal 2017 to almost $4.00 in fiscal 2020, causing the valuation of the stock "to move from current prices to approximately $90 per share." Nutrisystem closed Friday up 10%, or $4.10, to $43.50. Legions says it is "highly focused on collaborating" with Nutrisystem's management and the board of directors to "significantly accelerate and improve" the company's digital strategy efforts in order to "drive a substantial increase" in profitability. Legions added that it may seek to add certain digital marketing and product development expertise to the company's board.

  • 27

    Sep

NTRI Nutrisystem
$43.50

4.05 (10.27%)

05/30/18
DADA
05/30/18
NO CHANGE
Target $45
DADA
Buy
Nutrisystem price target raised to $45 at DA Davidson on updated growth plans
DA Davidson analyst Linda Bolton Weiser kept her Buy rating and raised her price target on Nutrisystem (NTRI) to $45 from $43, saying the 8% discount valuation on the stock relative to another e-commerce name - 1-800-Flowers (FLWS) - is too high. The analyst also cites a more bullish tone coming from CEO Dawn Zier at last week's investment conference, as she alluded to double-digit revenue growth expectations next year that may have been driven by the early testing of the anticipated re-launch of the Nutrisystem program in 2019.
07/17/18
DADA
07/17/18
NO CHANGE
Target $45
DADA
Buy
Nutrisystem new products to contribute to revenue growth in H2, says DA Davidson
DA Davidson analyst Linda Bolton Weiser kept her Buy rating and $45 price target on Nutrisystem, saying the company's recently announced two new product launches - vitamins under the Nutrisystem and South Beach brands - should contribute to returning the company to sales growth in the 2nd half of 2018. The analyst believes that Nutrisystem management has underguided ahead of Q2 results in an effort to "rebuild credibility", while its valuation of 16-times expected FY19 EPS is low given the company's "debt-free balance sheet, high ROIC of greater than 60%, and expected return to double-digit sales growth in 2019".
07/31/18
DADA
07/31/18
DOWNGRADE
DADA
Neutral
Nutrisystem downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson
07/31/18
DADA
07/31/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $40
DADA
Neutral
Nutrisystem downgraded to Neutral at DA Davidson on valuation
As reported earlier, DA Davidson analyst Linda Bolton Weiser downgraded Nutrisystem to Neutral from Buy and lowered her price target to $40 from $45. The analyst notes that she is optimistic that the company's execution can improve in the 2019 diet season, but cautions that the stock is entering a period of seasonal weakness from late summer through Q1, having already run up 43% from its March 29th lows. Weiser believes that Nutrisystem valuation may not improve until the results of the 2019 diet season are available, also lowering her PE multiple target to 15-times from 18-times.

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