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HOG

Harley-Davidson

$42.26

1.15 (2.80%)

, CSIQ

Canadian Solar

$13.12

0.02 (0.15%)

11:18
08/18/18
08/18
11:18
08/18/18
11:18

Week in review: How Trump's policies moved stocks

Catch up on the top industries and stocks that were impacted, or were predicted to be impacted, by the comments, actions and policies of President Trump and his administration with this weekly recap compiled by The Fly: 1. HARLEY-DAVIDSON: Shares of Harley-Davidson (HOG) were under pressure on Monday after President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of the company over the weekend, applauding a potential boycott of the company amid its production shift overseas. In a tweet, the President said: "Many @harleydavidson owners plan to boycott the company if manufacturing moves overseas. Great! Most other companies are coming in our direction, including Harley competitors. A really bad move! U.S. will soon have a level playing field, or better." 2. U.S.-CHINA TALKS: A Chinese delegation will meet U.S. representatives led by Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs David Malpass in a new series of trade talks to be held later in August, Reuters reported on Thursday. Then, on Friday, The Wall Street Journal said that Chinese and U.S. negotiators are preparing a road map for discussions to end their trade dispute culminating with meetings between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at multilateral summits in November. To clear the path for the meetings later this year, both sides have scheduled midlevel discussions in Washington next week, the report said, citing officials in both nations. 3. SOLAR TARIFFS: Meanwhile, China's Commerce Ministry has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization to determine the legality of the U.S. decision to subsidize its renewable energy industry and charge a tariff on imported products, according to Reuters. Publicly traded companies in the solar space include Canadian Solar (CSIQ), First Solar (FSLR), JA Solar (JASO), SunEdison (SUNEQ), SunPower (SPWR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE). 4. TURKEY DOUBLES TARIFFS: Turkey has doubled tariffs on some U.S. imports, such as cars, alcohol and tobacco, in what its vice president said was a response to deliberate U.S. attacks on the Turkish economy, Reuters reported. A decree signed by President Tayyip Erdogan, doubled Turkish tariffs on passenger cars to 120%, on alcoholic drinks to 140% and on leaf tobacco to 60%, Tariffs were also doubled on goods such as cosmetics, rice and coal in retaliation for U.S. moves. Last Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had authorized higher tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Turkey. 5. BUY AMERICAN: The Trump administration is preparing a new executive order expanding rules favor U.S.-made products in government projects, CNBC reported earlier this week, citing four administration officials and two other people familiar with the matter. The order, which appears to be close to completion, would apply current "Buy American" provisions to programs that are not presently covered, the report noted. 6. SEC REPORTING: In a Friday morning tweet, President Trump said he asked "some of the world's top business leaders" what could make business even better in the U.S., to which one replied, according to him: "Stop quarterly reporting & go to a six month system." Trump added: "That would allow greater flexibility & save money. I have asked the SEC to study!" He later attributed the suggestion to PepsiCo's (PEP) Indra Nooyi, who stated to Reuters that her comments to President Trump included a suggestion to explore the "harmonization" of the European and U.S. financial reporting systems, adding that "companies have to balance short-term and long-term performance." "Week in Review" is The Fly's weekly recap of its recurring series of "Trump Effect" exclusive stories.

HOG

Harley-Davidson

$42.26

1.15 (2.80%)

CSIQ

Canadian Solar

$13.12

0.02 (0.15%)

FSLR

First Solar

$50.98

0.18 (0.35%)

JASO

JA Solar

$0.00

(0.00%)

SUNEQ

SunEdison

$0.00

(0.00%)

SPWR

SunPower

$6.65

0.06 (0.91%)

TSL

Trina Solar

$0.00

(0.00%)

YGE

Yingli Green Energy

$0.00

(0.00%)

PEP

PepsiCo

$114.98

0.7 (0.61%)

  • 02

    Oct

HOG Harley-Davidson
$42.26

1.15 (2.80%)

06/26/18
RBCM
06/26/18
NO CHANGE
Target $40
RBCM
Sector Perform
Harley-Davidson price target lowered to $40 from $48 at RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Joseph Spak lowered his price target on Harley-Davidson to $40 after the company disclosed that the retaliatory E.U. tariffs on U.S. motorcycle imports will raise the price per unit by about $2.2K. The analyst further cites the $30-45M headwind to FY18 results anticipated by the company from its decision to shift production away from the U.S., while also keeping his Sector Perform rating on Harley-Davidson.
07/05/18
LBOW
07/05/18
NO CHANGE
LBOW
Neutral
Harley checks point to mid-single digit U.S. retail drop in Q2, says Longbow
Longbow analyst David MacGregor said his checks point to Harley-Davidson's (HOG) U.S. retail sales being down by a mid-single digits percentage in Q2. He now estimates Q2 U.S. shipments trending down 12-14%, which is a little worse than his previous expectation of down 11-13%. MacGregor, who believes Polaris Industries' (PII) Indian motorcycle gained market share from Harley in all segments, keeps a Neutral rating on Harley-Davidson shares.
07/18/18
RBCM
07/18/18
NO CHANGE
Target $40
RBCM
Sector Perform
Harley-Davidson Q2 retail trends 'likely weak again', says RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Joseph Spak kept his Sector Perform rating and $40 price target on Harley-Davidson, saying his dealer checks suggest that Q2 retail trends were "weak again" with a decline of 5%-7% following a 9.3% slide last year. The analyst adds that investor focus is now shifting toward the company's guidance for the second half of 2018, the impact of its restructuring efforts, international growth trajectory amid the escalating tariff trajectory, and any impact on its core customer from President Trump's increasingly negative rhetoric toward Harley-Davidson.
06/29/18
MSCO
06/29/18
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Overweight
Morgan Stanley says Harley PR strategy 'risky,' sees production move as unlikely
After Harley-Davidson recently said it may move production capacity out of the United States in response to EU tariffs, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas called engaging the President directly on issues of foreign trade a "rather risky PR strategy." Jonas believes the move to potentially reduce U.S. production capacity is mainly the result of declining U.S. demand, not EU taxes, and he also is not convinced the company will really move production to Thailand or India to make bikes for the EU market. He maintains an Overweight rating on Harley-Davidson and believes the stock will rebound sharply if the tension around EU tariffs proves to be part of a "more nuanced and controlled negotiating process."
CSIQ Canadian Solar
$13.12

0.02 (0.15%)

06/19/18
FBCO
06/19/18
UPGRADE
Target $53
FBCO
Neutral
Credit Suisse upgrades First Solar to Neutral amid 'overblown' Section 301 fears
As previously reported, Credit Suisse analyst Michael Weinstein upgraded First Solar (FSLR) to Neutral from Underperform, noting that solar manufacturers and developers' stocks have recently slumped on concerns about the fresh round of "Section 301" tariffs on Chinese imports. However, he thinks the negative reaction is "overblown" for the space, and "even more overblown" for First Solar, which Weinstein notes doesn't have any Chinese factories and actually stands to benefit from tariffs on competing products. He maintains a $53 price target on First Solar shares. Other publicly traded companies in the solar space include Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JA Solar (JASO), SunPower (SPWR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).
07/18/18
GSCO
07/18/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $15
GSCO
Neutral
Sunrun downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs on valuation
As reported earlier, Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee downgraded Sunrun to Neutral from Buy as part of his broader research note on the solar sector and also kept his price target at $15 citing valuation on the stock. The analyst states that Sunrun has already run up 160% year to date and also cites the shift in China's solar policy in late May along with the ensuing price collapse across the supply chain toward quarter-end, which raises the risk of margin misses and weaker Q3 guidance. Lee adds that China-levered names like Jinko Solar (JKS) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ) thus face particularly challenging demand outlooks. The analyst has the most constructive view on the U.S. residential installer Vivint Solar (VSLR), which stands to "benefit from lower module costs and what we expect could close the valuation gap relative to peers.
06/25/18
06/25/18
UPGRADE
Target $63

Buy
First Solar upgraded to Buy on 'most bullish possible' IRS guide at BofA/Merrill
As previously reported, BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith upgraded First Solar (FSLR) to Buy from Neutral, stating that the latest IRS tax guidance allowing for up to 4-year ITC extension on solar projects with commence construction qualification was " the most bullish interpretation IRS could have released." The IRS guidance is likely worth at least $50B to his prior cumulative capex expectations for the sector through 2023, Dumoulin-Smith tells investors. While he has less confidence on a module price recovery, the analyst sees prospects for more U.S. bound projects, he added. He maintains a $63 price target on First Solar shares. Other publicly traded companies in the space include Canadian Solar (CSIQ), JA Solar (JASO), SunEdison (SUNEQ), SunPower (SPWR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).
06/15/18
ROTH
06/15/18
NO CHANGE
ROTH
Enphase, SolarEdge inverters won't be subject to 301 tariffs, says Roth Capital
After the U.S. Trade Representative released two lists of products that will be subject to 25% tariffs under the Section 301 investigation, Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen noted that the lists did not include solar inverters, cells, or modules. He does not believe imported inverters from Enphase Energy (ENPH), SolarEdge (SEDG) and others will be subject to 301 tariffs, though he notes that solar cells and modules will continue to be impacted by the Section 201 and AD/CVD tariffs. Other publicly traded companies in the solar space include Canadian Solar (CSIQ), First Solar (FSLR), JA Solar (JASO), SunPower (SPWR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).
FSLR First Solar
$50.98

0.18 (0.35%)

07/27/18
ROTH
07/27/18
NO CHANGE
Target $90
ROTH
Buy
First Solar's miss doesn't weaken investment thesis, says Roth Capital
Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen reiterated a Buy rating and $90 price target on First Solar following the company's Q2 results, which missed expectations in contract with his preview for an optical beat on 8point3 sale timing. In a research note to investors, Shen says the miss does not weaken his investment thesis, as he continues to believe First Solar has and will maintain a meaningful lead ahead of its Chinese competition for the foreseeable future, resulting in attractive margins/earnings power ahead. Although the stock will likely trades down on the weak quarter, Shen see this as an attractive entry point.
07/27/18
NEED
07/27/18
NO CHANGE
Target $75
NEED
Buy
First Solar price target lowered to $75 from $85 at Needham
Needham analyst Y. Edwin Mok lowered his price target on First Solar to $75 after its weaker than expected Q2 revenue and lower outlook for FY18 shipments. The analyst also keeps his Buy rating longer term, stating that beyond the challenges, the management is executing on its growth plan "on both the operational side and on the demand creation front."
08/01/18
JPMS
08/01/18
NO CHANGE
Target $79
JPMS
Overweight
First Solar added to Analyst Focus List at JPMorgan
JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster added First Solar to his firm's Analyst Focus List as a near-term idea. The recent pullback in the shares, induced by the Chinese policy reset and "weak" Q2 results, presents investors with a buying opportunity, Coster tells investors in a research note. The analyst views Fist Solar as "best-in-class" in the solar space, with "industry-leading" gross margins, balance sheet, and visibility reaching through 2020. He calls the stock a top pick within his Alternative Energy coverage. Coster keeps an Overweight rating on the name with a $79 price target.
JASO JA Solar
$0.00

(0.00%)

06/04/18
ROTH
06/04/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $5.8
ROTH
Sell
Roth Capital downgrades JA Solar to Sell on new China policy
Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen downgraded JA Solar Holdings to Sell from Neutral and cut his price target for the shares to $5.80 from $6.70. China's "much worse-than-expected" new solar policy released last Friday is likely bring a "massive net oversupply," Chen tells investors in a research note. He believes the outlook for module average selling prices has "suddenly deteriorated" for not only 2018, but also 2019. The analyst sees risk to JA Solar shares if its merger agreement is not successfully completed.
SUNEQ SunEdison
$0.00

(0.00%)

08/24/17
AXIO
08/24/17
NO CHANGE
AXIO
JA Solar likely to report Q3 loss, says Axiom
Axiom analyst Gordon L Johnson III says his recent checks indicate that China and global prices for modules and cell dropped slightly last week, while spot prices for polysilicon and multi wafers used to make solar modules and cells rose sharply from July 12 to August 9 and have since been stable. As a result, the analyst calculates that companies which bought the raw materials at spot prices have seen their margins on solar cells fall to a record low -12.9%, while module makers who bought the raw materials at spot prices have margins of -3.7%, the lowest level since Axiom began tracking them. Given these trends, Johnson predicts that JA Solar will report a Q3 pretax loss of $10M and warns that the company's results could deteriorate further in Q4. Other publicly traded companies in the space include Canadian Solar (CSIQ), First Solar (FSLR), SunEdison (SUNEQ), SunPower (SPWR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).
SPWR SunPower
$6.65

0.06 (0.91%)

06/11/18
BARD
06/11/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $7
BARD
Neutral
SunPower downgraded to Neutral at Baird
As reported previously, Baird analyst Ben Kallo downgraded SunPower to Neutral from Outperform as he believes the stock is too difficult to own in the current market. The analyst said he still likes the management team and execution, but he believes it will be challenging for the company's premier product to command higher average selling prices if an oversupply environment were to materialize. Kallo lowered his price target to $7 from $10 on SunPower shares.
TSL Trina Solar
$0.00

(0.00%)

11/02/17
RILY
11/02/17
NO CHANGE
RILY
Tax reform bill a 'mixed bag' for renewable energy, says B. Riley FBR
B. Riley FBR analyst Benjamin Salisbury called the House tax reform proposal a "mixed bag" for renewable energy credits, noting that it would end the tax credit for commercial-scale solar projects after 2027, reduce the available wind tax credit and extend the orphaned tax credits, including fuel cells. The plan is still being negotiated and Salisbury sees a 30-40% probability that Congress can pass a tax cut mirroring the recent GOP blueprint and a 55-65% chance they could pass a scaled-down version. Publicly traded companies in the solar space include Canadian Solar (CSIQ), First Solar (FSLR), JA Solar (JASO), SunPower (SPWR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE). The Fly notes that Plug Power (PLUG) has issued a statement applauding the Committee for "addressing the market disparity that was created in 2015."
YGE Yingli Green Energy
$0.00

(0.00%)

04/05/18
ROTH
04/05/18
NO CHANGE
ROTH
Solar 'doges bullet' as inverters/cells/modules sidestep 301 tariffs, says Roth Capital
Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen notes that inverters, solar cells, and solar modules were not on the 301 product list released on the USTR website providing which Chinese imports will be subject to 25% tariffs. A 301 tariff that increases module or inverter costs in the U.S. could have served as another dampener of U.S. solar demand, he contends, adding that the lack of impact represents an overall positive for the industry and positive for most in his coverage universe, including Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Enphase Energy (ENPH), First Solar (FSLR), Hanwah Q CELLS (HQCL), JinkoSolar (JKS), Sunrun (RUN), SolarEdge (SEDG), ReneSola (SOL), Sunworks (SUNW), and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).
PEP PepsiCo
$114.98

0.7 (0.61%)

07/24/18
RHCO
07/24/18
NO CHANGE
Target $110
RHCO
Hold
PepsiCo price target raised to $110 from $105 at SunTrust
SunTrust analyst William Chappell raised his price target on PepsiCo to $110 to account for gains related to the impact of refranchising transactions, which he expects to support the company's high-single-digit EPS growth trend going forward. The analyst also keeps his Hold rating on PepsiCo as the stock is "fairly valued", with the company's Beverage business trading in line with peers and the Food business trading at the high end of its large-cap snack food peer range.
07/23/18
JEFF
07/23/18
NO CHANGE
Target $107
JEFF
Hold
Jefferies sees risk of near-term downside in PepsiCo shares
Jefferies analyst Kevin Grundy sees potential near-term downside in shares of PepsiCo. Despite fundamental challenges and weak earnings quality, PepsiCo's "relative multiple remains elevated," Grundy tells investors in a research note. The analyst is "negatively biased" toward PepsiCo and reiterates a Hold rating on the shares with a $107 price target.
07/16/18
RBCM
07/16/18
NO CHANGE
Target $75
RBCM
Outperform
Monster Beverage price hike to come November 1st, says RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst Nik Modi says his industry sources have confirmed that Monster Beverage (MNST) intends to raise its prices by 4.0-5.5% on November 1st depending on the pack size, which would be in line with the management's indication of pricing review made at the June shareholder meeting. The analyst keeps his Outperform rating and $75 price target on Monster, adding that Coca Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) will also likely make pricing changes in response over the coming months.
08/14/18
EVER
08/14/18
NO CHANGE
EVER
BodyArmor stake positive for Coca-Cola, negative for Pepsi, says Evercore
Evercore ISI analyst Robert Ottenstein views Coca-Cola's stake in BodyArmor as a "clear positive" for the company and a "clear negative" for both PepsiCo (PEP) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP). Pepsi's Gatorade product is most at risk with Coca-Cola taking a stake in BodyArmor, and Keurig Dr Pepper "losses distribution of the product and any path to ownership it might have enjoyed," Ottenstein tells investors in a research note.

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JNJ

Johnson & Johnson

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UAL

United Continental

$89.94

0.8 (0.90%)

17:39
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Energy Select Sector SPDR

$75.11

0.5132 (0.69%)

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$53.04

0.2049 (0.39%)

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General news
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SPDR Gold Trust

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iShares Silver Trust

$13.44

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United States Oil Fund

$14.95

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United States Natural Gas Fund

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iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond

$114.72

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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

$117.12

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iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

$101.00

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iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

$83.05

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iShares Russell 1000 Value

$129.51

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iShares Russell 1000 Growth

$155.30

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OHGI

One Horizon Group

$0.18

-0.0088 (-4.63%)

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CYTX

Cytori Therapeutics

$0.41

-0.033 (-7.38%)

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NEM

Newmont Mining

$31.56

0.05 (0.16%)

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  • 23

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CB

Chubb

$139.87

-0.05 (-0.04%)

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VTVT

vTv Therapeutics

$0.80

0.0096 (1.21%)

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VYGR

Voyager Therapeutics

$18.21

-0.27 (-1.46%)

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GNRC

Generac

$57.99

-0.02 (-0.03%)

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Guaranty Bancorp

$30.20

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Independent Bank

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HRS

Harris

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Pacific Mercantile Bancorp

$9.25

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WSC

WillScot

$17.10

-0.05 (-0.29%)

17:10
09/21/18
09/21
17:10
09/21/18
17:10
Syndicate
Breaking Syndicate news story on WillScot »

WillScot files to sell…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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DTEA

DAVIDsTEA

$2.50

-0.9 (-26.47%)

17:09
09/21/18
09/21
17:09
09/21/18
17:09
Hot Stocks
Breaking Hot Stocks news story on DAVIDsTEA »

TDM Asset Management…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
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NYT

New York Times

$23.45

0.3 (1.30%)

, EXPE

Expedia

$133.73

-0.77 (-0.57%)

17:08
09/21/18
09/21
17:08
09/21/18
17:08
Hot Stocks
Expedia president Bhutani joins New York Times board »

The New York Times…

NYT

New York Times

$23.45

0.3 (1.30%)

EXPE

Expedia

$133.73

-0.77 (-0.57%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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IBTX

Independent Bank

$67.60

-1.15 (-1.67%)

, GBNK

Guaranty Bancorp

$30.20

-0.5 (-1.63%)

17:08
09/21/18
09/21
17:08
09/21/18
17:08
Conference/Events
Guaranty Bancorp to host special shareholder meeting »

Special Shareholder…

IBTX

Independent Bank

$67.60

-1.15 (-1.67%)

GBNK

Guaranty Bancorp

$30.20

-0.5 (-1.63%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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  • 24

    Sep

  • 25

    Sep

MPC

Marathon Petroleum

$83.37

1.44 (1.76%)

, ANDV

Andeavor

$154.80

2.19 (1.44%)

17:01
09/21/18
09/21
17:01
09/21/18
17:01
Conference/Events
Andeavor to host special shareholder meeting »

Special Shareholder…

MPC

Marathon Petroleum

$83.37

1.44 (1.76%)

ANDV

Andeavor

$154.80

2.19 (1.44%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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  • 24

    Sep

  • 24

    Sep

ANDV

Andeavor

$154.80

2.19 (1.44%)

, MPC

Marathon Petroleum

$83.37

1.44 (1.76%)

16:59
09/21/18
09/21
16:59
09/21/18
16:59
Conference/Events
Marathon Petroleum to host special shareholder meeting »

Special Shareholder…

ANDV

Andeavor

$154.80

2.19 (1.44%)

MPC

Marathon Petroleum

$83.37

1.44 (1.76%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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  • 24

    Sep

EPRT

Essential Properties Realty Trust

$14.49

-0.015 (-0.10%)

16:45
09/21/18
09/21
16:45
09/21/18
16:45
Hot Stocks
Breaking Hot Stocks news story on Essential Properties Realty Trust »

Integrated Core…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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BBSI

Barrett Business

$63.67

0.04 (0.06%)

16:43
09/21/18
09/21
16:43
09/21/18
16:43
Hot Stocks
SEC says Barrett Business to pay $1.5M penalty over improper accounting »

The Securities and…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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SIGA

Siga Technologies

$7.25

0.5 (7.41%)

16:42
09/21/18
09/21
16:42
09/21/18
16:42
Conference/Events
Siga Technologies to host business news update conference call »

Management holds a…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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  • 27

    Sep

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$292.03

-0.1774 (-0.06%)

, USO

United States Oil Fund

$14.95

0.145 (0.98%)

16:36
09/21/18
09/21
16:36
09/21/18
16:36
General news
Weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders highlights »

S&P500 net long 0.1K…

SPY

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

$292.03

-0.1774 (-0.06%)

USO

United States Oil Fund

$14.95

0.145 (0.98%)

GLD

SPDR Gold Trust

$113.48

-0.77 (-0.67%)

FXE

Euro Currency Trust

$112.55

-0.27 (-0.24%)

FXC

CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust

$76.37

-0.09 (-0.12%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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