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LII

Lennox

$225.37

2.76 (1.24%)

18:19
08/20/18
08/20
18:19
08/20/18
18:19

Lennox cuts FY18 adjusted EPS view to $8.90-$9.30 from $9.95-$10.35

FY18 consensus $10.25. Lennox announced the estimated financial impacts and insurance offsets expected for the company following the tornado that damaged its manufacturing facility in Marshalltown, Iowa on July 19, as previously announced. For the second half of 2018, the company estimates approximately $100M in lost revenue in the Residential Heating & Cooling business segment as a result of the tornado, and approximately $55M in lost profit. In addition to the lost revenue impact, the company currently estimates special pre-tax charges related to the tornado of approximately $80M in 2018, including site clean-up costs, asset write-offs, and factory-inefficiency costs. Over the course of 2018 and 2019, Lennox International expects business interruption and property insurance proceeds to offset both the earnings impact from lower revenue and the special non-core charges resulting from the tornado. The company is updating 2018 guidance for GAAP revenue growth from 4-6% to 2-4%. The company is updating 2018 guidance for adjusted revenue growth from 6-8% to 4-6%. Adjusted revenue growth excludes the impact of the company's divestitures within its Refrigeration business this year. The $55M of lower profit expected in the Residential segment in 2018 equates to approximately $1.05 of impact to EPS from continuing operations. The offsetting proceeds from business interruption insurance are expected in either the second half of 2018 or in 2019. Assuming proceeds are not received until 2019, the company expects a negative $1.05 impact to 2018 EPS and a $1.05 benefit to 2019 EPS. The offsetting proceeds from property insurance that will cover the special pre-tax charges of approximately $80M are expected in 2018. Accordingly, the company is updating 2018 guidance for GAAP EPS from continuing operations from $9.43-$9.83 to a new range of $8.38-$8.78. The company is updating 2018 guidance for adjusted EPS from continuing operations from $9.95-$10.35 to a new range of $8.90-$9.30. The company reiterates 2018 guidance for $450M of stock repurchases in total for the year. "The strong focus and commitment to serving our customers across North America continues," said Chairman and CEO Todd Bluedorn. "While we have lots of hard work in front of us, I am extremely confident in the LII team's ability to mitigate the impact from the tornado and execute the recovery process."

LII Lennox
$225.37

2.76 (1.24%)

06/27/18
WOLF
06/27/18
INITIATION
Target $199
WOLF
Underperform
Lennox initiated with an Underperform at Wolfe Research
Wolfe Research initiated Lennox with an Underperform and price target of $199.
07/12/18
KEYB
07/12/18
NO CHANGE
KEYB
KeyBanc favors Ingersoll-Rand, more cautious on Watsco ahead of results
Following his quarterly channel checks, KeyBanc analyst Jeffrey Hammond views expectations for +MSD industry growth in Q2 as fully supported, and while share dynamics appear to be stabilizing, he still expects Lennox (LII) and Ingersoll-Rand (IR) to sustain outgrowth, but at a more moderate rate versus previous quarters. In addition, the analyst notes he received near-unanimous affirmation that midyear price increases are passing through without resistance, which signals positively for HVAC OEMs and distributors alike. Heading into quarterly results, Hammond favors Ingersoll-Rand, and is more cautious on Watsco (WSO) given concerns around its ability to deliver on margins versus raised expectations.
07/24/18
GHSC
07/24/18
DOWNGRADE
GHSC
Neutral
Lennox downgraded to Neutral on valuation at Seaport Global
Seaport Global analyst Walt Liptak downgraded Lennox to Neutral from Buy due to valuation and maintained a $220 price target on shares.
08/20/18
MSCO
08/20/18
INITIATION
Target $201
MSCO
Underweight
Lennox initiated with an Underweight at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Joshua Pokrzywinski initiated Lennox with an Underweight rating and a price target of $201 as part of his broader research note on Electrical Equipment & Multi-Industry Industrial stocks. The analyst contends that the risk-reward on the stock is less favorable based on its valuation being near relative highs and given the later stages of its end-markets' replacement cycle. The analyst adds that he sees "few imminent catalysts" for stock price downside outside of the extended valuation.

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