Canada trade preview
Canada trade preview: analysts expect the August trade report, due Friday, to reveal a widening in the deficit to -C$0.4 B in August from -C$0.1 B in July. Exports are expected to rise 0.5% after the 0.8% gain in July. Imports are projected to rebound 1.0% after the 0.4% dip in July. The Syncrude shutdown in June and gradual return to full production by September remains a downside risk for exports and upside risk for imports. June GDP was held back by the shutdown (it happened in June) and analysts saw a further drag on production in July GDP amid maintenance work at the facility. The USMCA deal made the sun shine bright on Canada's trade outlook -- with the pact (still subject to government approval) removing a considerable degree of uncertainty over Canada's trade backdrop. While there are ample unknowns, the trade deal solidifies our view that net exports will add to growth in 2019, and possibly in Q4 of this year. View the preview.