The U.S. September trade price report was stronger than expected
The U.S. September trade price report was stronger than expected, with a 0.5% gain for import prices but a flat reading for export prices. Import prices were boosted by petroleum prices, which rose 4.1% in September, while ex-petroleum prices were flat, after declining in the prior three months. The export price decline reflected a 1.4% drop in agricultural prices as tariffs continue to weigh on the figures, while non-agricultural export prices rose 0.2% in September. Core prices were weak again, with 0.1% declines for both exports and imports that left a third consecutive export price drop and a fourth straight decline for import prices. Analysts expect export prices to fall 0.1% in October, alongside a 0.3% oil-led gain for import prices but a 0.1% decline in ex-petroleum import prices. For other inflation reports, analysts saw a 0.1% September CPI and core gain. Analysts saw a 0.1% gain in headline and core PPI. Analysts expect 0.1% September headline and core PCE chain price figure. Overall, analysts see tariffs likely depressing the trade price measures going forward, alongside a moderation in domestic inflation, as the indexes gauge pre-tax price levels and producers will absorb some of the tax impact.