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PM

Philip Morris

$81.55

-0.84 (-1.02%)

, BTI

British American Tobacco

$42.94

-1.4 (-3.16%)

14:10
10/12/18
10/12
14:10
10/12/18
14:10

Goldman says tobacco stock reactions to latest FDA news seems overdone

Goldman Sachs analyst Judy Hong noted that European and U.S. tobacco stocks are underperforming, which she attributes to an FDA educational presentation on the topic of a potential tobacco standard for the level of nicotine in combusted cigarettes as well the FDA sending letters to 21 e-vapor makers to assess whether their products are being marketed illegally. Given that the FDA has already announced a comprehensive tobacco regulatory plan and has solicited comments on the costs/benefits of lowering nicotine, she views the presentation as more of an informational review of existing research rather than anything incremental. The letters she views as consistent with recent direction that the FDA is taking on cracking down on the e-vapor category given the apparent increase in youth consumption, Hong added. In total, she sees today's stock reactions as broadly overdone and keeps Buy ratings on Philip Morris (PM) and British American Tobacco (BTI) and Neutral ratings on Altria (MO) and Imperial Brands (IMBBY).

PM

Philip Morris

$81.55

-0.84 (-1.02%)

BTI

British American Tobacco

$42.94

-1.4 (-3.16%)

MO

Altria Group

$59.71

-1.4 (-2.29%)

IMBBY

Imperial Brands

$0.00

(0.00%)

  • 18

    Oct

  • 25

    Oct

PM Philip Morris
$81.55

-0.84 (-1.02%)

09/27/18
PIPR
09/27/18
NO CHANGE
Target $99
PIPR
Overweight
Philip Morris medium-term targets likely beatable, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Lavery says Philip Morris updated its 2018 guidance for currency and gave medium-term guidance, with a medium-term objective of 5% or better organic sales growth and 8% or better earnings growth. The analyst considers these targets "to be realistic and achievable, and likely even beatable." The company also announced implementation of zero-based budgeting, which is expected to drive $1B of annualized cost savings by 2021, Lavery tells investors in a research note. Further, Philip Morris revised guidance for currency to reflect a 12c hit and now expects earnings per share in a range of $4.97-$5.02, down from $5.02-$5.12, the analyst points out. Lavery keeps an Overweight rating on the shares with a $99 price target.
09/20/18
WELS
09/20/18
NO CHANGE
WELS
Outperform
Tobacco stocks to rally on PM USA price increase, says Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Bonnie Herzog says Altria Group (MO) and Philip Morris (PM) just announced a "healthy and slightly higher than expected" wholesale list price increase on all of its cigarette brands, including Marlboro The analyst learned from industry contacts that PM USA took a cigarette list price increase of 10c per pack or $1.00 per carton on Marlboro, L&M, and B&H Menthol, 15c per pack on Parliament and Virginia Slims, and 50c per pack on everything else. The 10c per pack increase on Marlboro is slightly higher than the 9c per pack increase Altria took on Marlboro in March 2018, reflecting the company's "significant pricing power," Herzog tells investors in a research note. The analyst expects British American Tobacco (BTI), Reynolds and ITG Brands will follow Altria's lead and increase prices in the next few days, but possibly not as robust of an increase. She expects Tobacco stocks will react favorably to this list price increase and reiterates an Overweight rating on the sector and Outperform rating on Altria Group.Fargo
08/24/18
JEFF
08/24/18
DOWNGRADE
JEFF
Hold
Jefferies downgrades Philip Morris, Altria Group to Hold from Buy
Jefferies analyst Owen Bennett downgraded both Philip Morris (PM) and Altria Group (MO) to Hold from Buy. The analyst lowered his lowered his price target on the former to $80 from $93 and on the latter to $61 from $70. For Philip Morris, the analyst sees significant share loss in Japan heated in the second half of 2018 and believes its longer-term total tobacco volumes will pressured due to greater skew to vapor. For Altria Group, Bennett believes market share pressures should pick up again the second half of 2018. Further, he sees the company at a disadvantage in vapor due to available formats and believes concerns around the delay of an IQOS approval will likely weigh on the shares. The analyst reiterates a Buy rating on shares of British American Tobacco (BTI).
08/24/18
08/24/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. L Brands (LB) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley with analyst Kimberly Greenberger saying the Victoria's Secret turnaround is taking longer than anticipated and she now sees greater risk to 2019 estimates. 2. Hormel Foods (HRL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays with analyst Benjamin Theurer saying he is taking a more neutral view on the shares citing the supply/demand imbalance in the pork business, uncertainty in the international segment from trade tariffs, and the "sluggish performance" of its other businesses. 3. Cummins (CMI) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with analyst Ann Duignan saying with demand for trucks in China slowing, and lingering investor concerns over a peaking truck cycle in North America, she sees downside risks for the shares. 4. Secureworks (SCWX) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS WITH analyst Fatima Boolani citing valuation. 5. Altria Group (MO) and Philip Morris (PM) were downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
BTI British American Tobacco
$42.94

-1.4 (-3.16%)

09/13/18
MSCO
09/13/18
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Morgan Stanley says FDA e-cig stance positive for Altria, British American
After the FDA announced a plan to address growing concerns about youth e-cigarette use, Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman called the FDA's "harsh stance against the e-cig category" a positive development for U.S. tobacco names Altria (MO) and British American Tobacco (BTI). The threat of a potential expedited PMTA submission deadline and the removal of flavors could have significant negative implications for JUUL and would minimize its threat to combustible cigarettes, said Kaufman. The FDA's potential actions would also hurt tobacco companies' e-cig initiatives, but they are "well-equipped" and experienced in managing through heightened regulatory scrutiny, added the analyst, who believes that overall the FDA is "sending mixed messages" on its nicotine reduction agenda.
09/03/18
RBCM
09/03/18
DOWNGRADE
RBCM
Underperform
British American Tobacco downgraded to Underperform at RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst James Edwardes Jones downgraded British American Tobacco to Underperform from Sector Perform and lowered his price target for the shares to 3,400p. The next generation of tobacco products remove the industry's "historically insurmountable barriers to entry," Jones tells investors in a research note.
MO Altria Group
$59.71

-1.4 (-2.29%)

IMBBY Imperial Brands
$0.00

(0.00%)

09/03/18
RBCM
09/03/18
DOWNGRADE
RBCM
Underperform
Imperial Brands downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital
RBC Capital analyst James Edwardes Jones downgraded Imperial Brands to Underperform from Sector Perform and lowered his price target for the shares to 2,400p from 2,800p. The next generation of tobacco products remove the industry's "historically insurmountable barriers to entry," Jones tells investors in a research note.
03/15/18
COWN
03/15/18
NO CHANGE
COWN
Cowen sees FDA nicotine crackdown taking years, not months
The FDA filed an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on nicotine levels for combustible tobacco, which starts the clock on what will ultimately be a long process of data gathering, Cowen analyst Vivien Azer tells investors in a research note. The analyst sees the process taking years, not months, given the need for additional research. Azer has Outperform ratings on Altria Group (MO), British American Tobacco (BTI) and Imperial Brands (IMBBY).
07/10/18
SBSH
07/10/18
NO CHANGE
SBSH
Juul having 'profound impact' on U.S. cigarette market, says Citi
Citi analyst Adam Spielman sees "good evidence" that Juul is impacting cigarette volumes in the U.S. and will continue to do so. The analyst is also concerned that a ban on menthol cigarettes is now more likely. Further, Juul's international expansion is "yet another factor making tobacco less predictable," Spielman tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes the share declines in Altria Group (MO), British American Tobacco (BTI), Imperial Brands (IMBBY) and Philip Morris (PM) "have been more or less fair."
03/22/18
STFL
03/22/18
NO CHANGE
Target $78
STFL
Buy
Altria Group cigarette price hike slightly ahead of expectations, says Stifel
Stifel analyst Christopher Growe noted that Altria (MO) announced that it is raising prices for its cigarettes by 9c per pack, which was slightly ahead of his 1c per pack expectations, although right in line with his expectations for timing at six months since the last increase. This increase is "quite supportive" of the company's yearly EPS growth outlook of 15%-19%, but he believes this was fully factored in Altria's guidance, Growe said. As in the past, he expects competitors Reynolds American (BTI) and Imperial Brands (IMBBY) to follow suit quickly, Growe added. He keeps a Buy rating and $78 price target on Altria shares.

TODAY'S FREE FLY STORIES

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WIN

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, UNIT

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BHVN

Biohaven Pharmaceutical

$45.32

1.36 (3.09%)

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Biohaven treatment of multiple system atrophy granted FDA orphan designation »

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AMGN

Amgen

$188.31

1.6 (0.86%)

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CE

Celanese

$100.19

1.19 (1.20%)

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WIN

Windstream

$3.37

0.2 (6.31%)

, UNIT

Uniti Group

$20.00

0.53 (2.72%)

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WIN

Windstream

$3.37

0.2 (6.31%)

UNIT

Uniti Group

$20.00

0.53 (2.72%)

03/08/13
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  • 25

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GLD

SPDR Gold Shares

$124.81

0.77 (0.62%)

17:41
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SPDR Gold Shares holdings fall to 793.03MT from 796.85MT »

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MDLZ

Mondelez

$48.17

0.84 (1.77%)

17:26
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FN

Fabrinet

$55.23

0.67 (1.23%)

17:25
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UBER

Uber

$0.00

(0.00%)

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S&P 500

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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

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2.93 (1.07%)

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ORCL

Oracle

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AKS

AK Steel

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LPTX

Leap Therapeutics

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MPB

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REGN

Regeneron

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UPS

UPS

$110.89

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DAL

Delta Air Lines

$51.09

0.58 (1.15%)

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UPS

UPS

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-0.91 (-0.81%)

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