The Empire State headline bounce to 21.1
The Empire State headline bounce to 21.1 in October from a 5-month low of 19.0 in September left the measure still below the 10-month high of 25.6 in August. The ISM-adjusted Empire State was unchanged at September's 55.9 from 56.4 in August, versus a 12-year high of 57.9 in June. Analysts still expect an October Philly Fed rise to 21.0 from 19.0 in September and 11.9 in August. The ISM-adjusted Philly Fed likely rose to the 57.0 area from 56.5 in September and a 1-year low of 56.1 in August. For later October surveys, analysts expect a Richmond Fed drop to 21.0 from an all-time high of 29.0, a Dallas Fed rise to 29.0 from 28.1, a Chicago PMI rise to 60.5X from 60.4, an ISM drop to 59.4 from 59.8 in September an a 14-year high of 61.4 in August, and an ISM-NMI drop drop to 60.0 from a 21-year high of 61.6. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to slip to 58 from a 59 cycle-high in August and September, as seen in May and June, versus a lower 57 in July. The average has oscillated in the 57-59 range since September of 2017. The two Empire job indexes fell in October, though the firm headline combines to leave a mixed signal for our 220k October nonfarm payroll estimate, which reflects an expected post-Florence bounce that may face a delay due to hurricane Michael.