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FB

Facebook

$153.67

-1.28 (-0.83%)

, GOOG

Alphabet

$1,090.00

2.1 (0.19%)

14:33
10/19/18
10/19
14:33
10/19/18
14:33

#SocialStocks: Snap may be small enough to be acquired, YouTube suffers blackout

Welcome to "#SocialStocks," The Fly's weekly recap of Wall Street's reactions to social media stock news. RISKS ALREADY PRICED IN FACEBOOK SHARES: On October 17, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian said he believes Facebook's (FB) shares have embedded some downside risk to consensus estimates with out-year Street margin expectations likely to compress further. Sebastian maintained his Outperform rating and $195 price target on Facebook shares. Also on October 17, the Wall Street Journal reported that several public funds with holdings in Facebook are backing a shareholder proposal to push out Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg as chairman of the social network's board. GOOGLE TO CONTINUE POSITIVE AD MOMENTUM: Despite the loss of it's social media offering Google+, Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) is expected to continue being the king of digital ads, according to Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter, who initiated coverage on the search giant with an Outperform and has a $1,350 price target. YOUTUBE GOES DOWN: On October 16, Alphabet's video service, YouTube, suffered an outage for around an hour and a half. YouTube tweeted the following announcements regarding the outage: "Thanks for your reports about YouTube, YouTube TV and YouTube Music access issues. We're working on resolving this and will let you know once fixed. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause and will keep you updated." Later that evening Team YouTube followed up with "We're back! Thanks for all of your patience. If you continue to experience issues, please let us know." TWITTER SUSPENDS BOT ACCOUNTS IN KHASHOGGI CASE: NBC News reported that Twitter (TWTR) suspended hundreds of bot accounts that were tweeting in support of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in light of Jamal Khashoggi's disappearance. SNAP NOW SMALL ENOUGH TO BE ACQUIRED: Loop Capital analyst Alan Gould started Snap with a Hold rating and $7 price target. The company's revenue and user growth have decelerated due to competition, a "controversial" redesign and issues with the Android version of its app, Gould tells investors in a research note. He believes that even if management can revise the app, competition from Instagram may make it difficult for Snap to reaccelerate its growth. However, the analyst adds that with an enterprise value down to $9B, Snap is now small enough to be acquired "if the controlling shareholders are willing sellers and if regulators allow such a deal."

FB

Facebook

$153.67

-1.28 (-0.83%)

GOOG

Alphabet

$1,090.00

2.1 (0.19%)

GOOGL

Alphabet Class A

$1,098.63

1.4 (0.13%)

TWTR

Twitter

$28.71

-0.58 (-1.98%)

SNAP

Snap

$6.75

-0.06 (-0.88%)

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FB Facebook
$153.67

-1.28 (-0.83%)

10/16/18
RSBL
10/16/18
INITIATION
Target $213
RSBL
Buy
Facebook initiated with a Buy at Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt analyst Mark Zgutowicz started Facebook with a Buy rating in a note partially entitled "Facebook: Value, Not Trap." Given the stock's current valuation, there appears to be little confidence consensus expectations will be met and he is "in that camp," forecasting calendar 2019 EPS that is about 8% below consensus, Zgutowicz tells investors. However, with that said, he sees the anticipated EPS shortfall as priced in the shares and would be a buyer of the stock in front of the Q3 report, stating that he sees a bottoming for News Feed fatigue and enough light ahead with new product innovation and Instagram and Watch optionality. Zgutowicz set a $213 price target on Facebook shares.
10/16/18
10/16/18
NO CHANGE

Fly Intel: Today's top analyst calls on Wall Street
Check out today's top analyst calls from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly. NEEDHAM SAYS BUY TAPESTRY: Needham analyst Rick Patel upgraded Tapestry to Buy from Hold and kept his $50 price target. The analyst notes that after a 14% selloff in the stock price driven by tariff-related concerns and the slowdown of Asia sales at LVMH, the risk-reward is favorable. Patel estimates that the hit to EPS from the impact of the handbag tariff should be "relatively modest" at about 1%. The analyst further notes that Tapestry has "ample white space" for long term growth in China through new distribution, while its North America sales indicate "well-controlled promotions" for Coach and Kate Spade. ANALYSTS SAY BUY FACEBOOK IN NEW INITIATIONS: Loop Capital analyst Alan Gould initiated Facebook with a Buy rating and a price target of $210, saying the stock is valued "quite attractively" after a "strong year financially and a challenging year operationally". The analyst also notes that the company's guidance is likely "conservative" given the company's propensity to beat consensus estimates. Meanwhile, Rosenblatt analyst Mark Zgutowicz started Facebook with a Buy rating in a note partially entitled "Facebook: Value, Not Trap." Given the stock's current valuation, there appears to be little confidence consensus expectations will be met and he is "in that camp," forecasting calendar 2019 EPS that is about 8% below consensus, Zgutowicz tells investors. However, with that said, he sees the anticipated EPS shortfall as priced in the shares and would be a buyer of the stock in front of the Q3 report, stating that he sees a bottoming for News Feed fatigue and enough light ahead with new product innovation and Instagram and Watch optionality. Zgutowicz set a $213 price target on Facebook shares. TILRAY TARGET SET AT $200 AS CANADA GETS READY TO LEGALIZE: Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey initiated coverage of Tilray with a Buy rating and $200 price target, citing its early leadership in the medical cannabis market in Canada and the upcoming legalization of recreational cannabis, which begins in the North American nation tomorrow. He believes the company's strategic alliance with Novartis (NVS) and supply agreements with Canadian pharmacies that give Tilray a competitive edge in the Canadian medical cannabis market, Hickey tells investors. He also believes the potential international opportunity is "enormous," estimating that the global cannabis market opportunity could exceed $200B over the long-term. JEFFERIES SEES NO COMPETING BIDS FOR PINNACLE: Jefferies analyst Akshay Jagdale downgraded Pinnacle Foods (PF) to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $68 from $72. The analyst assumes Conagra Brands' (CAG) bid to buy the company for $68 will go through without any competing bids. The stock should trade in line with its $68 transaction price until completion of the deal, Jagdale tells investors. GOLDMAN PREDICTS AVIS, HERTZ OUTLOOKS WILL DISAPPOINT: Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino nudged the price target on Avis Budget (CAR) lower to $30 from $31 while keeping the price target on Hertz at $13 as part of his broader research note previewing Q3 results for the two Sell-rated U.S. car rental names. The analyst notes that Hertz (HTZ) may top Q3 consensus earnings and Avis Budget could miss based on his analysis of their respective pricing trends and residual values, but both have an added risk from reduced airport volume growth amid tightening competition among the ride hailing operators like Uber and Lyft. Tamberrino expects the car rental industry to remain challenged overall, noting that positive pricing will not be sustained, residual values will be pressured as more cars come off lease, and rising interest rates exert pressure on their balance sheets' high debt levels.
10/16/18
10/16/18
INITIATION

On The Fly: Top five analyst initiations
Catch up on today's top five analyst initiations with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Abbott (ABT), Boston Scientific (BSX), Stryker (SYK), and Medtronic (MDT) were initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, while Baxter (BAX), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), and Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) were initiated with an Underweight. 2. Expedia (EXPE) was initiated with an Outperform at Evercore ISI, while TripAdvisor (TRIP) was initiated with an In Line, and Booking Holdings (BKNG) was initiated with an In Line. 3. Facebook (FB) was initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital and Rosenblatt. 4. Snap (SNAP) initiated with a Hold at Loop Capital. 5. VF Corp. (VFC) initiated with a Neutral at Wedbush. This list is just a portion of The Fly's analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
10/17/18
BARD
10/17/18
NO CHANGE
Target $195
BARD
Outperform
Facebook near-term risks embedded in shares, says Baird
Baird analyst Colin Sebastian expects Facebook's Q3 results to confirm slowing core growth amid reallocation of some spending to Instagram and potentially other sites. He believes the shares have embedded some downside risk to consensus estimates with out-year Street margin expectations likely to compress further. Sebastian is maintaining his Outperform rating and $195 price target on Facebook shares.
GOOG Alphabet
$1,090.00

2.1 (0.19%)

10/12/18
WEDB
10/12/18
UPGRADE
Target $6.5
WEDB
Outperform
Fitbit upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter upgraded Fitbit (FIT) to Outperform from Neutral, citing the company's expansion into the healthcare/MedTech vertical. In a research note to investors, Pachter says Fitbit has captured a large share of both the smartwatch and fitness tracker markets, but its watches must compete with Apple's (AAPL) offering. He thinks Fitbit has an "excellent" opportunity ahead with MedTech, particularly in collaboration with Google (GOOG, GOOGL), and believes Fitbit may begin reporting meaningful contribution from MedTech as early as 2019. Pachter also notes that shares have recently pulled back well below his $6.50 price target, providing an opportunity to get involved in the Medtech vertical at a reasonable price.
10/12/18
OPCO
10/12/18
NO CHANGE
Target $265
OPCO
Outperform
Baidu price target cut to $265 from $295 at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein reiterated an Outperform rating on Baidu (BIDU) but cut his price target to $265 from $295 citing valuation, higher near-term investments, as well as the firm's recently-lowered price target for Ctrip (CTRP) and the recent downward movement of iQIYI (IQ) shares. In a research note to investors, Helfstein contends that investors' concern around macro/trade war and the risk of Google's (GOOG, GOOGL) re-entrance into China are "overstated," especially the Google piece, due to increased U.S. government scrutiny.
10/17/18
WEDB
10/17/18
INITIATION
Target $1350
WEDB
Outperform
Wedbush starts 'ad king' Alphabet with Outperform, $1,350 price target
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter initiated coverage of Alphabet (GOOGL) with an Outperform rating and $1,350 price target. In a research note titled "Long Live the Ad King," Pachter says he expects Google to "maintain positive ad momentum" even amidst pressure from Facebook (FB) and Amazon.com (AMZN). The analyst also thinks cost control efforts will drive better than expected Q3 results when Alphabet reports on October 25.
10/18/18
10/18/18
INITIATION

On The Fly: Top five analyst initiations
Catch up on today's top five analyst initiations with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush. 2. BJ's Wholesale (BJ) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer. 3. Comcast (CMCSA) initiated with an Outperform at Evercore ISI. 4. Thomson Reuters (TRI) reinstated with a Neutral at Goldman Sachs. 5. Atomera (ATOM) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital. This list is just a portion of The Fly's analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
GOOGL Alphabet Class A
$1,098.63

1.4 (0.13%)

10/17/18
WEDB
10/17/18
INITIATION
WEDB
Outperform
Alphabet initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush
10/19/18
FBCO
10/19/18
NO CHANGE
Target $1500
FBCO
Outperform
Alphabet price target raised to $1500 from $1375 at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju reiterated an Outperform rating on Alphabet and raised his price target to $1,500 from $1,375 ahead of the company's Q3 results on October 25. Near term, Ju tells investors in a research note that advertiser checks suggest a positive ad budget and spend environment with only modest deceleration for search and ongoing YouTube acceleration. As for Google's proposal to comply with the EU's requirements for Android bundling, Ju does not anticipate a change from the status quo as he expects the majority of handset manufacturers to voluntarily bundle Google's apps versus electing to either lose market share or take on the cost of OS/app development.
TWTR Twitter
$28.71

-0.58 (-1.98%)

10/11/18
BTIG
10/11/18
NO CHANGE
Target $30
BTIG
Sell
Square CFO resignation adds to uncertainty risk, says BTIG
BTIG analyst Mark Palmer maintained his Sell rating and $30 price target on Square (SQ) after its yesterday's announcement that CFO Sarah Friar is planning to step down at the end of the year. The analyst notes that Friar has been viewed as "serving in a role more expansive and crucial than that of a typical CFO" given the divided focus of CEO Jack Dorsey on his position as CEO of Twitter (TWTR). The analyst also maintains his view that Square's "increasing dependence on the extension of credit to its customers" has made its business model more vulnerable to credit market volatility.
10/11/18
GSCO
10/11/18
NO CHANGE
Target $11
GSCO
Buy
Snap price target lowered to $11 from $17 at Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs analyst Heath Terry lowered his price target for Snap (SNAP) to $11 from $17, while reiterating a Buy rating on the shares. With Snap shares down 50% since the company reported Q2 results, beyond the broader weakness in social media, the analyst believes investors are clearly focused on the impact competition is having on the company's user growth, ability to monetize, and capital needs. Terry continues to believe that a Twitter-like (TWTR) turnaround is possible, particularly as the new Android app comes out of Alpha later this quarter. However, it is unlikely that Q3 results will show any signs of that as reported DAUs decline and engagement is negatively impacted by the redesign/competition, he contends.
10/11/18
10/11/18
NO CHANGE

Fly Intel: Today's top analyst calls on Wall Street
Check out today's top analyst calls from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly. JPMORGAN UPGRADES LUMENTUM AFTER SELLOFF: JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee upgraded Lumentum (LITE) to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $80. The 19% stock decline from the highs in late August, driven by concerns relative to U.S.-China trade, over-appreciates the "modest risks" for Lumentum, Chatterjee said. He believes this creates an "attractive buying opportunity" to capitalize on the near-term improvement in the earnings outlook. GOLDMAN CUTS HUNTINGTON TO SELL: Goldman Sachs analyst Noah Poponak downgraded Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) to Sell from Neutral and lowered his price target for the shares to $208 from $220. Poponak said Huntington is now the most expensive stock in his Defense coverage on economic, price-to-earnings and free cash flow yield. The analyst believes the stock could underperform Defense peers in the medium-term given the valuation. JEFFRIES STARTS HERBALIFE WITH A BUY: Jefferies analyst Akshay Jagdale started Herbalife Nutrition (HLF) with a Buy rating and $65 price target. After a period of "muted growth," Herbalife's sales looked poised to accelerate to a more normalized range of 5%-9%, Jagdale believes. He thinks the company should be able to grow at least in line with its total addressable market growth rate of 6%. This, coupled with margin expansion and accretive free cash flow usage, should drive "significant" earnings upside and support a "growth company valuation," Jagdale said. JPMORGAN RAISES PRICE TARGET ON NY TIMES: JPMorgan analyst Alexia Quadrani raised her price target for New York Times (NYT) to $32 and reiterated an Overweight rating on the shares ahead of the company's Q3 results. The analyst said that while quarterly subscriber growth may continue to be volatile, the company's longer-term trends are positive. She expects New York Times' growth to "remain at elevated levels for the foreseeable future." SNAP PRICE TARGET CUT AT GOLDMAN SACHS: Goldman Sachs analyst Heath Terry lowered his price target for Snap (SNAP) to $11 from $17, while reiterating a Buy rating on the shares. With Snap shares down 50% since the company reported Q2 results, beyond the broader weakness in social media, the analyst believes investors are clearly focused on the impact competition is having on the company's user growth, ability to monetize, and capital needs. Terry continues to believe that a Twitter-like (TWTR) turnaround is possible, particularly as the new Android app comes out of Alpha later this quarter. However, it is unlikely that Q3 results will show any signs of that as reported DAUs decline and engagement is negatively impacted by the redesign/competition, he said.
10/12/18
PIVT
10/12/18
UPGRADE
Target $24
PIVT
Hold
Twitter upgraded to Hold from Sell at Pivotal Research
Pivotal Research analyst Brian Wieser upgraded Twitter to Hold from Sell while lowering his price target for the shares to $24 from $26. The analyst cites valuation for the upgrade following the recent selloff in the stock.
SNAP Snap
$6.75

-0.06 (-0.88%)

10/12/18
10/12/18
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Microsoft (MSFT) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie with analyst Sarah Hindlian saying she is taking advantage of the pullback in shares. 2. Netflix (NFLX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi with analyst Mark May saying the valuation, following this week's selloff, has reached a level that warrants an "opportunistic" upgrade to Buy. 3. Square (SQ) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord with analyst Michael Graham saying the recent pullback in the shares creates a long-term opportunity in a "truly disruptive and well-run company." 4. Snap (SNAP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Pivotal Research with analyst Brian Wieser saying despite declining usage and liquidity, the data he looks at is showing a "widening user base, although one which is collectively reducing its time on the platform." 5. Costco (COST) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
10/12/18
10/12/18
NO CHANGE

Fly Intel: Today's top analyst calls on Wall Street
Check out today's top analyst calls from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly. MICROSOFT UPGRADED TO OUTPERFORM AFTER PULLBACK: Macquarie analyst Sarah Hindlian upgraded Microsoft (MSFT) to Outperform from Neutral and raised her price target on the shares to $121, saying she is taking advantage of the pullback in shares. Hindlian views Microsoft as a relatively defensive name with long-term earnings power and expects a strong start to FY19 following constructive field work. CITI UPGRADES NETFLIX TO BUY: Citi analyst Mark May upgraded Netflix (NFLX) to Buy from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $375. The valuation, following this week's selloff, has reached a level that warrants an "opportunistic" upgrade to Buy, May said. Netflix has a highly recurring subscription-based revenue business that delivers "significant value" to consumers, and its management team has a strong track record of execution, the analyst contended. Further, he believes the company's fundamentals remain strong and that is has opportunity to continue growing international subscribers. SQUARE UPGRADED TO BUY AFTER PULLBACK: Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Graham upgraded Square (SQ) to Buy from Hold and raised his price target for the shares to $90 from $60. The recent pullback in the shares creates a long-term opportunity in a "truly disruptive and well-run company," Graham said. He believes the departure of CFO Sarah Friar is more about going to a promising company as CEO rather than walking away from a risk. PIVOTAL UPGRADES SNAP TO BUY: Pivotal Research analyst Brian Wieser upgraded Snap (SNAP) to Buy from Hold while lowering his price target for the shares to $8 from $9. The analyst said that despite declining usage and liquidity, the data he looks at is showing a "widening user base, although one which is collectively reducing its time on the platform." It is not too late for management to find ways to reverse recent usage trends and generally improve monetization regardless of those usage trends, Wieser added. Further, the analyst believes Snap could become an attractive candidate to go private with the stock's price at current levels. JPMORGAN DOWNGRADES ESTEE LAUDER TO NEUTRAL: JPMorgan analyst Andrea Teixeira downgraded Estee Lauder (EL) to Neutral and lowered her price target for the shares to $138 from $154. There may be a deceleration in the travel retail channel ahead now that Chinese customs agents are implementing tighter controls at the border, according to local source, Teixeira noted. Further, she believes the de-rating in luxury peers related to the group's "outsized exposure" to Chinese consumers will likely put a cap on Estee Lauder's valuation as well. The analyst also sees less opportunity for earnings beats on margins in the near term given tariff costs.
10/15/18
LOOP
10/15/18
INITIATION
Target $7
LOOP
Hold
Snap initiated with a Hold at Loop Capital
Loop Capital analyst Alan Gould started Snap with a Hold rating and $7 price target. The company's revenue and user growth have decelerated due to competition, a "controversial" redesign and issues with the Android version of its app, Gould tells investors in a research note. He believes that even if management can revise the app, competition from Instagram may make it difficult for Snap to reaccelerate its growth. However, the analyst adds that with an enterprise value down to $9B, Snap is now small enough to be acquired "if the controlling shareholders are willing sellers and if regulators allow such a deal."

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$1.23

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$176.83

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$1.23

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0.565 (2.50%)

07:36
11/15/18
11/15
07:36
11/15/18
07:36
Options
Unusual call flow in option market yesterday »

Notable call activity was…

COG

Cabot Oil & Gas

$25.83

-0.67 (-2.53%)

PAGS

PagSeguro Digital

$23.19

0.565 (2.50%)

MOS

Mosaic

$35.72

-0.41 (-1.13%)

CRC

California Resources

$24.06

0.3 (1.26%)

CVE

Cenovus Energy

$8.14

-0.205 (-2.46%)

ON

ON Semiconductor

$17.47

0.12 (0.69%)

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  • 19

    Nov

  • 26

    Nov

  • 08

    May

JCP

J.C. Penney

$1.23

-0.05 (-3.91%)

07:34
11/15/18
11/15
07:34
11/15/18
07:34
Hot Stocks
Breaking Hot Stocks news story on J.C. Penney »

J.C. Penney reports Q3…

03/08/13
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  • 15

    Nov

CAT

Caterpillar

$125.04

-1 (-0.79%)

07:33
11/15/18
11/15
07:33
11/15/18
07:33
Recommendations
Caterpillar analyst commentary  »

Caterpillar public sector…

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PAR

PAR Technology

$16.11

-0.51 (-3.07%)

07:33
11/15/18
11/15
07:33
11/15/18
07:33
Hot Stocks
PAR Technology subsidiary awarded $7.3M U.S. Navy contract at Aguada, PR »

PAR Technology announced…

03/08/13
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OVID

Ovid Therapeutics

$4.75

-0.42 (-8.12%)

07:33
11/15/18
11/15
07:33
11/15/18
07:33
Initiation
Ovid Therapeutics initiated  »

Ovid Therapeutics…

03/08/13
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  • 27

    Nov

SPH

Suburban Propane

$22.68

0.12 (0.53%)

07:33
11/15/18
11/15
07:33
11/15/18
07:33
Earnings
Suburban Propane reports Q4 EPS (83c) vs. (83c) last year »

Reports Q4 revenue…

03/08/13
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  • 15

    Nov

OTIC

Otonomy

$2.34

-0.07 (-2.90%)

07:33
11/15/18
11/15
07:33
11/15/18
07:33
Initiation
Otonomy initiated  »

Otonomy initiated with an…

03/08/13
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  • 27

    Nov

07:32
11/15/18
11/15
07:32
11/15/18
07:32
General news
U.S. stocks pointed to higher open despite UK's Brexit chaos »

U.S. futures are higher…

DNLI

Denali Therapeutics

$17.53

0.24 (1.39%)

07:32
11/15/18
11/15
07:32
11/15/18
07:32
Initiation
Denali Therapeutics initiated  »

Denali Therapeutics…

03/08/13
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