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EA

Electronic Arts

$93.43

2.25 (2.47%)

, ATVI

Activision Blizzard

$66.68

1.46 (2.24%)

12:26
10/30/18
10/30
12:26
10/30/18
12:26

Take-Two rises as analysts stay bullish after big 'Red Dead' opening weekend

Shares of Take-Two (TTWO) are rising in afternoon trading after its subsidiary Rockstar Games said that its new release "Red Dead Redemption 2" achieved "the single-biggest opening weekend in the history of entertainment." The company noted that the game launched on a Friday, so its "opening weekend" is the same as its first three days. WHAT'S NEW: Rockstar Games said this morning that "Red Dead Redemption 2," which launched last Friday to critical acclaim, achieved over $725M in worldwide retail sell-through during its first three days. The game, according to the company, is the second-highest grossing entertainment launch of all time next to the developer's previously released title "Grand Theft Auto V," which achieved over $1B in retail sell-through in three days. The game is currently available on PlayStation 4 (SNE) and Xbox One (MSFT) consoles. STREET RESEARCH: Following the announcement, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian maintained an Outperform rating and $140 price target on Take-Two, saying that the "strong start" for "Red Dead Redemption 2" reinforces his positive view. The analyst noted that, for further context, Activision Blizzard's (ATVI) "Call of Duty: Black Ops 4" reported over $500M in sell-through during its opening weekend earlier this month. Sebastian also noted that the record launch increases the odds of upside potential for his third quarter target of roughly 18M units sold and fiscal 2019 estimates of about 22M units. In addition, the analyst said that the installed base creates a greater opportunity for the game's upcoming online launch, known as "Red Dead Online." Meanwhile, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson backed an Overweight rating and $145 price target on Take-Two, noting that his firm estimates the game sold roughly 11M units in its opening weekend. While he is not raising its estimates, the 15.5M unit figure for FY19 appears to be conservative, Olson said. The analyst added that he believes buy-side expectations for "Call of Duty: Black Ops 4" are 23M-24M units by the end of December, while expectations for "Red Dead 2" were previously about 19M by the end of March, which now appear overly conservative. PRICE ACTION: In afternoon trading, shares of Take-Two are 9.7% higher to $122.58. Activision Blizzard shares, meanwhile, are up 2.3%, while shares of rival Electronic Arts (EA), which reports earnings after the close today, are 2.5% higher.

EA

Electronic Arts

$93.43

2.25 (2.47%)

ATVI

Activision Blizzard

$66.68

1.46 (2.24%)

TTWO

Take-Two

$122.44

10.91 (9.78%)

  • 30

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    Nov

EA Electronic Arts
$93.43

2.25 (2.47%)

10/29/18
10/29/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Electronic Arts (EA) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc with analyst Evan Wingren saying he expects negative estimate revisions, and has diminished confidence in the pipeline, which is likely to continue to limit valuation expansion in the near-term. 2. Colgate-Palmolive (CL) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan with analyst Andrea Teixeira saying she sees the company's "weak growth" continuing amid intense competition and cost challenges. 3. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Summit Insights. 4. Western Digital (WDC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Loop Capital with analyst Ananda Baruah saying his work on the company's Q3 results has led to a conclusion that NAND memory average selling price declines could "exacerbate entering January" and believes that consensus view on the company's FY19 EPS remains too high. 5. Avangrid (AGR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs with analyst Michael Lapides saying his revised earnings estimates now imply "significant downside risk" to company guidance and consensus numbers, especially for 2020. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
10/29/18
10/29/18
DOWNGRADE

Sector Weight
Electronic Arts downgraded to Sector Weight on lack of catalysts at KeyBanc
As previously reported, KeyBanc analyst Evan Wingren downgraded Electronic Arts to Sector Weight from Overweight as visibility remains low. The analyst expects negative estimate revisions, and has diminished confidence in the pipeline, which is likely to continue to limit valuation expansion in the near-term. Wingren sees long-term value, but the lack of positive catalysts and execution concerns ultimately outweigh it and positive long-term thematic drivers of the industry, over the next 12 months.
10/29/18
KEYB
10/29/18
DOWNGRADE
KEYB
Sector Weight
Electronic Arts downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
10/25/18
RHCO
10/25/18
NO CHANGE
Target $116
RHCO
Buy
Electronic Arts price target lowered to $116 from $140 at SunTrust
SunTrust analyst Matthew Thornton lowered his price target on Electronic Arts to $116 ahead of its Q2 earnings next week, also lowering his FY19 EPS view to $4.69 from $4.75 and FY20 to $5.23 from $5.31. The analyst cites FX headwinds and more conservative outlook for the company's FIFA and Battlefield videogame sales, adding that the buy-side sentiment on the stock is also more negative than the sell-side amid execution concerns for the company. Longer term, Thornton keeps his Buy rating on Electronic Arts to reflect its attractive 16.9-times forward free cash flow multiple.
ATVI Activision Blizzard
$66.68

1.46 (2.24%)

10/22/18
MSCO
10/22/18
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Morgan Stanley says publishers in 'win-win' situation as consoles move to cloud
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak sees changes coming to the $53B global console gaming market as the business model transitions toward subscription pricing and cloud delivery. The transition will lead to 2% CAGR console gaming revenue growth from 2017-2025, but gross profit growth accelerating to 6%, Nowak estimates. He believes game publishers such as Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Electronic Arts (EA) and Take-Two (TTWO) will likely need to partner and bundle content to drive material consumer adoption, but he sees them being in a "win-win" position, because even if the console makers or other aggregators drive the cloud transition, the leading publishers can still benefit from expansion in the player base, Nowak tells investors. While console players Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SNE) have the most at risk from these changes, they are also positioned best to build and grow game subscription services, Nowak added.
10/22/18
PIPR
10/22/18
NO CHANGE
PIPR
Teen survey positive for console publisher group, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson says his firm's 36th semi-annual survey of 8,600 teens shows that video game console ownership was up, with 83% claiming to own a current gen console or expecting to buy one. Spending on video games also increased, from 13% of male teen budgets in spring 2018 to 14% currently, Olson tells investors in a research note. Further, he points out that a growing number of teens watch others play games via YouTube and Twitch, while the number of teens who play mobile games fell from the spring survey. The analyst views the data as positive for the console publisher group Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Electronic Arts (EA) and Take-Two (TTWO), and neutral for mobile game companies Zynga (ZNGA) and Glu Mobile (GLUU).
10/30/18
MKMP
10/30/18
NO CHANGE
Target $71
MKMP
Neutral
Activision Blizzard price target lowered to $71 from $82 at MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler lowered his price target on Activision Blizzard to $71 and kept his Neutral rating, saying that while some outperformance in Q3 can be expected from the strength of the "World of Warcraft: Battle for Azeroth" and "Destiny 2: Foresaken" releases in the quarter, he has concerns about the company's growth outlook for 2019. Handler further states that a neutral stance is warranted by what is known about the company's release plans next year, adding that he is not anticipating any "major news".
10/19/18
PIPR
10/19/18
NO CHANGE
PIPR
September NPD video game software sales dropped 8%, says Piper Jaffray
Overall September NPD video game software sales were down 8% year-over-year despite launches of strong franchises, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson tells investors in a research note. The top title for Sept. was Sony's (SNE) Spiderman followed by Take-Two's (TTWO) NBA 2K19, Ubisoft's Assassin's Creed and Electronic Arts' (EA) FIFA 19, the analyst points out. Olson views the Sept. NPD data as less relevant for Activision Blizzard (ATVI) given his expectation for greater than 75% of its revenue coming from digital sources. He maintains Overweight ratings on Activision, Electronic Arts and Take-Two.
TTWO Take-Two
$122.44

10.91 (9.78%)

10/30/18
PIPR
10/30/18
NO CHANGE
Target $145
PIPR
Overweight
Piper says 'Red Dead 2' unit estimates look conservative after record launch
After Take-Two (TTWO) announced $725M of first weekend sell-through for "Red Dead Redemption 2," Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson noted this was about 40% above the sales Activision (ATVI) announced "Call of Duty: Black Ops 4" sold during its first weekend. He believes buy-side expectations for Black Ops 4 are 23-24M units by the end of December, while expectations for Red Dead were previously about 19M by the end of March, which now appear overly conservative. While he is not raising his own estimate for 15.5M units for FY19 yet, Olson said it also "appears conservative." He reiterates an Overweight rating and $145 price target on Take-Two shares.
10/30/18
BARD
10/30/18
NO CHANGE
Target $140
BARD
Outperform
Take-Two record launch raises odds of 'Red Dead' upside, says Baird
After Take-Two Interactive announced global sell-through of over $725M for "Red Dead Redemption 2" over the game's launch weekend, giving it the largest opening weekend in entertainment industry history, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian said the record launch increases the odds of upside potential for his Q3 target of about 18M units sold and FY19 estimate of roughly 22M units. The installed base also creates greater opportunity for the game's upcoming online launch, added Sebastian, who keeps an Outperform rating and $140 price target on Take-Two shares.
10/25/18
BARD
10/25/18
NO CHANGE
Target $140
BARD
Outperform
Reviews for Take-Two's new 'Red Dead' very positive, says Baird
Initial metacritic scores for Take-Two Interactive's "Red Dead Redemption 2" are very positive, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian tells investors in a research note. The game currently has a 97 rating on metacritic.com for the PS4, on par with the last major release for the studio's blockbuster "Grand Theft Auto" franchise and slightly higher than the prior "Red Dead" title, the analyst points out. Sebastian says the early reviews provide him with additional confidence in his unit forecasts. The analyst currently anticipates 22M units for fiscal 2019, with upside potential to the 25M unit level. He maintains an Outperform rating on Take-Two shares with a $140 price target.
10/25/18
PIPR
10/25/18
NO CHANGE
Target $145
PIPR
Overweight
'Red Dead Redemption 2' among best reviewed games ever, says Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson noted "Red Dead Redemption 2" has a current average "metacritic" score of 97.5 on 94 reviews, which he said ranks it "among the top reviewed titles of a all time." He is still modeling sales of 15.5M units for FY19, but given the strong reviews believes his estimate could prove conservative. Olson keeps an Overweight rating and $145 price target on "Red Dead" maker Take-Two.

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SVA

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DHIL

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NEM

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$36.42

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GG

Goldcorp

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HL

Hecla Mining

$2.59

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DIOD

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$278.71

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AAPL

Apple

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DPLO

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MGEE

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$66.40

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KPTI

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NIO

NIO Inc.

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BRK.A

Berkshire Hathaway

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$201.90

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