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AAPL

Apple

$192.23

-1.925 (-0.99%)

, GLW

Corning

$32.03

0.32 (1.01%)

06:28
11/14/18
11/14
06:28
11/14/18
06:28

Guggenheim sees 5% iPhone drop next year, downgrades Apple to Neutral

Guggenheim analyst Robert Cihra downgraded Apple to Neutral from Buy and removed his prior $245 price target for the shares. The stock closed yesterday down $1.94 to $192.23. The average selling price of the iPhone has increased a "dramatic" $220, or 40%, over the past 10 years, reflecting its "growing value to both consumer and business markets," Cihra tells investors in a research note. The analyst points out, however, that nearly half of that increase came in fiscal 2018 alone. This makes a "period of digestion now likely," Cihra writes in a note partially titled "ASPs No Longer Enough." The analyst believes Apple's growth via average selling price is now "widely known." The iPhone's nearly 60% contribution to revenue and profits is "looking like a headwind again," says Cihra. Following early supply chain cuts, exemplified by Corning's (GLW) "softer" Q4 gorilla glass guidance back in October and this week's warnings from 3D sensing laser supplier Lumentum (LITE) and LCD supplier Japan Display, the analyst now estimates iPhone units will decline 5% year-over-year in fiscal 2019. He cut his fiscal 2019 earnings per estimate for Apple to $12.97 from $13.41 and revenue estimate to $273B from $281B.

AAPL

Apple

$192.23

-1.925 (-0.99%)

GLW

Corning

$32.03

0.32 (1.01%)

LITE

Lumentum

$38.95

1.445 (3.85%)

  • 14

    Nov

  • 26

    Nov

AAPL Apple
$192.23

-1.925 (-0.99%)

11/13/18
JPMS
11/13/18
NO CHANGE
JPMS
Overweight
JPMorgan sees 'significant upside' in Qorvo shares as expectations reset
JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson notes that following other announced cuts in the Apple (AAPL) supply chain, Qorvo (QRVO) also reset near-term revenue expectations as a result of lower demand from Apple. The analyst believes that not only is Qorvo seeing weaker unit demand, but likely is seeing reduced demand for the iPhone XR model in particular. Nonetheless, Peterson expects Qorvo to outperform through his modeling period on content gains in mobile, broad-based across smartphone makers, compensating for weaker smartphone unit demand and on strong double-digit percentage year over year revenue growth in non-mobile on infrastructure, 5G, and GaN. As expectations have been reset, and with investors becoming more comfortable with the content growth story in mobile and outsized growth in non-mobile, the analyst sees "significant upside" in Qorvo shares over the mid-term, and reiterates an Overweight rating on the stock.
11/13/18
MKMP
11/13/18
NO CHANGE
Target $86
MKMP
After Qorvo warns, MKM says Apple risk 'largely' factored into supply chain
MKM Partners analyst Ruben Roy noted that Qorvo (QRVO) followed Lumentum (LITE) in reducing its December quarter outlook due to recent demand forecast changes for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone. He also noted that Qorvo expects March quarter revenues to be down less than 10%, sequentially, which he points out is better than the seasonal declines in the previous two fiscal years and likely due to content increases across a number of upcoming Samsung handsets. Roy said he remains positive on Qorvo given his continued expectations for market share gains, but lowered his price target on the stock to $86 from $95. In terms of other Apple supply chain companies, he believes that Skyworks' (SWKS) guidance likely considered the demand changes at Apple, but thinks Cirrus Logic (CRUS) provided December quarter guidance ahead of Apple changes. Roy also notes that Broadcom (AVGO) will report on December 6. While seeing some risk to near-term wireless estimates, Roy concluded that he believes Apple risk is "largely incorporated" into supply chain expectations at this point.
11/14/18
UBSW
11/14/18
NO CHANGE
Target $225
UBSW
Neutral
UBS drops Apple price target to $225 from $240 on supply chain cuts
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered his estimates for Apple citing cuts in the company's supply chain. The analyst believes Apple in the past week has cut 6M-7M out of the original 63M build for new iPhone models, with the cut evenly split between the XS Max and XR models. On a net basis, however, this cut is slightly offset by a few million more older phones, Arcuri tells investors in a research note. The analyst's overall calendar Q4 estimate for iPhone units for sell-in go from 75M to 73.5M along with a slight reduction in average selling price. He also dropped his calendar Q1 unit estimate to 46.7M from 53.3M and Q2 estimate to 37.5M from 41.7M. The analyst notes that these cuts are "significantly" less than Lumentum's (LITE) negative preannouncement would imply and still a little less than the 10M implied by Qorvo (QRVO). Nonetheless, Arcuri thinks there is an "inventory component that is still negatively affecting the supply chain." The analyst dropped his price target for Apple to $225 from $240 while keeping a Buy rating on the shares. The iPhone maker closed yesterday down $1.94 to $192.23.
11/14/18
GUGG
11/14/18
DOWNGRADE
GUGG
Neutral
Apple downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
GLW Corning
$32.03

0.32 (1.01%)

09/14/18
SBSH
09/14/18
UPGRADE
Target $40
SBSH
Buy
Corning upgraded to Buy on optical demand strength at Citi
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant upgraded Corning to Buy from Neutral with a $40 price target. The shares are "poised to continue to grind higher" in the next 12-18 months as investors appreciate the company's "multiple vectors" for revenue growth, diversification and margin expansion, Merchant tells investors in a research note. The analyst expects Corning's earnings and margins growth will be driving by optical demand strength and better display pricing.
09/14/18
09/14/18
NO CHANGE

Fly Intel: Today's top analyst calls on Wall Street
Check out today's top analyst calls from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly. WELLS SAYS 'MAY BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS' FOR COSTCO: Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly downgraded Costco Wholesale to Market Perform from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $235. While Costco remains one of the highest quality companies within consumer and its near-term results should be positive, "this may be as good as it gets," Kelly told investors. He believes the stock's 50% rally over the past year "has left it priced for perfection" and that Costco's comps "seem destined to slow in 2019" as it laps tough comparisons. JPMORGAN ADVISE CAUTION ON GE: A read of the proxies for the General Electric (GE) and Wabtec (WAB) transportation deal suggests "caution is warranted" in taking the forecasts "to the bank," JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa wrote in a research note. The situation "looks eerily similar" to GE's Baker Hughes (BHGE) deal, where management went from pitching $8B in future EBITDA several years forward to "slowly pulling annual guidance once public," with a consensus that is now at $5B, Tusa said. He believes that as each of GE's Industrial businesses get broken out clearly with "clean GAAP" transparency, the less impressive the financials look. Tusa keeps an Underweight rating on General Electric shares. CORNING UPGRADED ON OPTICAL DEMAND STRENGTH: Citi analyst Asiya Merchant upgraded Corning (GLW) to Buy from Neutral with a $40 price target, telling investors that the shares are "poised to continue to grind higher" in the next 12-18 months. The analyst expects Corning's earnings and margins growth will be driving by optical demand strength and better display pricing. JPMORGAN CUTS VALVOLINE TO UNDERWEIGHT ON NEW AMAZON COMPETITION: JPMorgan analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas downgraded Valvoline (VVV) to Underweight from Neutral and lowered his price target for the shares to $20 from $22. Industry trade publication National Oil and Lube New is reporting that Amazon (AMZN) has launched its first private label motor oil called AmazonBasics Full Synthetic Motor Oil, Zekauskas noted. While too early to gauge the effects of the Amazon entry on the Valvoline brand, the new competition from Amazon will likely reduce Valvoline's trading multiple "because the lubricant industry structure is probably weaker for its entry," Zekauskas contends. NVIDIA TARGET HIKED TO $350: Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill raised his price target on Nvidia to $350 from $325 after his investor meeting with its Data Center GM and Director of IR, saying the discussions about the company's AI/ML dominance reminded him of "Wintel" platform during the PC computing era. The analyst believes that Nvidia is "uniquely positioned" to capitalize on the next wave of computing, taking a larger inference market share with its new TensorRT Hyperscaler Platform.
09/14/18
09/14/18
UPGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst upgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst upgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Corning (GLW) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi with analyst Asiya Merchant saying the shares are "poised to continue to grind higher" in the next 12-18 months as investors appreciate the company's "multiple vectors" for revenue growth, diversification and margin expansion. 2. Coca-Cola European Partners (CCE) was upgraded to Outperform at Wells Fargo and to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna. 3. VF Corp. (VFC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Cowen with analyst John Kernan saying VF's disclosure of a 23% operating margin for Vans implies that the brand alone could generate $1B-plus in free cash flow by fiscal 2022. 4. Helmerich & Payne (HP) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan with analyst Sean Meakim saying Helmerich exceeded his expectations in adapting to the upgrade cycle. 5. Parker-Hannifin (PH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Buckingham. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
09/20/18
ARGS
09/20/18
NO CHANGE
Target $42
ARGS
Buy
Corning price target raised to $42 from $36 at Argus
Argus analyst Jim Kelleher raised Corning's price target to $42 from $36 sayaing its positioned to leverage revenue growth into margin expansion in 2H 2018 and 2019. Kelleher said investments are now bearing fruit and is positioned for positive bottom-line comparisons for 2H 2018 and 2019.
LITE Lumentum
$38.95

1.445 (3.85%)

11/13/18
MKMP
11/13/18
NO CHANGE
Target $60
MKMP
Buy
Lumentum price target lowered to $60 from $78 at MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Michael Genovese lowered his price target on Lumentum (LITE) to $60 after its negative pre-announcement reflecting an order cut from Apple (AAPL), adding that his average selling price assumptions suggest that the company is anticipating shipments of 30M 3D VCSELs vs. its original view of 50M. The analyst keeps his Buy rating on Lumentum however and contends that the 33% decline in its stock price on the news is overextended. Genovese further states that Lumentum remains the "strong technology and market share leader in the 3D VCSELs" and does not expect its market share to decline.
11/13/18
11/13/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Lumentum (LITE) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan with analyst Samik Chatterjee saying yesterday's negative pronouncement underscored the challenges likely to be faced by Apple (AAPL) supply chain companies in delivering to investor expectations as Apple continues to prioritize its premium pricing strategy on iPhones relative to volumes. 2. Best Buy (BBY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill with analyst Curtis Nagle citing expectations for slowing industry growth, difficult comps in key products and cost inflation. 3. Perrigo (PRGO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg with analyst Patrick Trucchio saying although the key reason to own Perrigo shares remains intact, namely the U.S. government's push to shift more products from prescription to nonprescription, "too much uncertainty in generics has placed us on the sidelines." 4. Sabra Health Care (SBRA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho with analyst Richard Anderson saying he wants to a take a "pause" until the earnings reset from the "surprise news" of Senior Care stopping rent payments since May becomes better understood. 5. Infinera (INFN) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley with analyst Meta Marshall saying she sees "no reason to race in" until there are signs that the revenue base has stabilized. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.

TODAY'S FREE FLY STORIES

RCL

Royal Caribbean

$107.67

0.15 (0.14%)

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AVLR

Avalara

$85.78

1.82 (2.17%)

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INT

World Fuel Services

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OEC

Orion Engineered

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VRA

Vera Bradley

$10.07

0.27 (2.76%)

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LGF.A

Lionsgate

$10.73

-0.085 (-0.79%)

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TREX

Trex Company

$85.68

-0.085 (-0.10%)

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KL

Kirkland Lake Gold

$45.63

0.14 (0.31%)

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WSG

Wanda Sports

$4.48

0.58 (14.87%)

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ORBC

Orbcomm

$4.84

-0.055 (-1.12%)

08:13
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IEA

Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives

$3.98

0.12 (3.11%)

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IMMP

Immutep

$1.42

-0.08 (-5.33%)

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08:10
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ADYYF

Adyen

$0.00

(0.00%)

08:10
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Conference/Events
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TSLA

Tesla

$220.89

-4.81 (-2.13%)

, VWAGY

Volkswagen

$0.00

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BGFV

Big 5 Sporting

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SPLK

Splunk

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CSOD

Cornerstone OnDemand

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F

Ford

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MBIO

Mustang Bio

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LOW

Lowe's

$108.00

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TRHC

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