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ON

ON Semiconductor

$17.35

0.54 (3.21%)

, ST

Sensata

$46.37

0.3 (0.65%)

08:52
11/14/18
11/14
08:52
11/14/18
08:52

Morgan Stanley says auto semiconductor estimates still too high

Morgan Stanley analyst Craig Hettenbach sees pressure building toward an eventual reset in the first half of 2019 for semiconductor companies that have so far characterized their automotive business as "stable." He believes estimates are still too high in autos and notes that his 2019 EPS estimate is 15% below the Street for ON Semiconductor (ON) and 5% below consensus for Sensata (ST). Having braced for a greater degree of negativity, Hettenbach was surprised that commentary on autos was mixed during earnings season, and he sees companies that have been slower to reset expectations being more susceptible to order reductions as suppliers and OEMs adjust to weaker than expected production, he tells investors. The analyst reiterates his Underweight ratings on both ON and Sensata.

ON

ON Semiconductor

$17.35

0.54 (3.21%)

ST

Sensata

$46.37

0.3 (0.65%)

  • 19

    Nov

  • 08

    Mar

ON ON Semiconductor
$17.35

0.54 (3.21%)

11/13/18
BMOC
11/13/18
INITIATION
Target $20
BMOC
Market Perform
ON Semiconductor initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital
As reported earlier, BMO Capital analyst Ambrish Srivastava initiated ON Semiconductor with a Market Perform rating and a price target of $20. The analyst states that while he is impressed with the company's execution toward achieving its near-term and long-term target, he finds shares valued "reasonably" at current levels. Srivastava adds however that the "integration of the Fairchild acquisition has gone a long way to wipe away the sins of the Sanyo deal" and that he would consider taking a more constructive stance on downward estimate revisions or reduction of lead times.
11/12/18
BMOC
11/12/18
INITIATION
BMOC
Market Perform
ON Semiconductor initiated with a Market Perform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Ambrish Srivastava initiated ON Semiconductor with a Market Perform rating.
10/30/18
MKMP
10/30/18
NO CHANGE
Target $22
MKMP
Buy
ON Semiconductor price target lowered to $22 from $28 at MKM Partners
MKM Partners analyst Ruben Roy lowered his price target on ON Semiconductor to reflect the rolled out valuation multiple of 11-times for his expected FY19 earnings but kept his Buy rating after the company's Q3 earnings beat. The analyst believes that ON Semiconductor is able to execute well as it makes progress toward its longer-term operating model. Roy further cites the management's commentary suggesting that in spite of "trade tensions, rising bond yields and fears of slowing global growth", the company views its overall demand environment as "favorable" and pricing as "benign".
10/30/18
CHLM
10/30/18
NO CHANGE
Target $25
CHLM
Buy
ON Semiconductor price target lowered to $25 from $31 at Craig-Hallum
Craig-Hallum analyst Anthony Stoss lowered his price target for ON Semiconductor to $25 from $31, while reiterating a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst believes ON's content expansion in key end-markets is helping them outperform other semiconductor suppliers. While no supplier is safe from some China softness, comms, auto, and compute all shine for ON, he contends.
ST Sensata
$46.37

0.3 (0.65%)

10/31/18
RHCO
10/31/18
NO CHANGE
Target $49
RHCO
Hold
Sensata price target lowered to $49 from $58 at SunTrust
SunTrust analyst William Stein lowered his price target on Sensata to $49 and kept his Hold rating after its Q3 results. The analyst notes that while the revenue beat was driven by better than expected performance sensing sales, the post-earnings rally may not be sustained, as the company could have trouble convincing investors that the shift to "out-growing end markets will be long-lived".
10/30/18
CRSS
10/30/18
UPGRADE
CRSS
Buy
Sensata upgraded to Buy from Hold at Cross Research
10/16/18
MSCO
10/16/18
NO CHANGE
MSCO
Semi fundamentals look worse today than in 2015 down cycle, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Craig Hettenbach noted that the selloff in semiconductor stocks has been "swift and painful" and could be getting overdone near-term, though he worries the group is "by no means out of the woods" given his view that semi fundamentals today are worse than they were in the 2015 down cycle. Specifically, Hettenbach points to the degree of excess that built up in the supply chain this time, stating that the increase in lead times, double ordering, and inventory accumulation is markedly different to the period that preceded the last time there were broad-based semi estimate cuts in the second half of 2015. Semi sector estimates have only just recently started to come down and there are growing investor expectations that companies will guide Q4 revenue at least a few percent below the Street, added Hettenbach, who said the "upcoming earnings season will be the big test."
09/17/18
09/17/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $47

Underweight
Sensata downgraded to Underweight on rising cyclical risks at Morgan Stanley
As previously reported, Morgan Stanley analyst Craig Hettenbach downgraded Sensata (ST) to Underweight from Equal Weight as he thinks a recent slowing across its end markets, particularly autos, which make up 60% of sales, increase the risk of a miss in Q4. He notes that the stock has held up much better in the last few weeks than other semi companies - such as Texas Instruments (TXN), ON Semiconductor (ON) and Cypress Semiconductor (CY) - facing similar risks, which leads Hettenbach to think Sensata is more susceptible to any disappointment. While the key driver of his downgrade is cyclical concerns, the analyst also noted that he is keeping an eye on the increased traction that TE Connectivity (TEL) and Amphenol (APH) are seeing in sensors. Hettenbach lowered his price target on Sensata shares to $47 from $55.

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