Today's U.S. CPI report beat estimates
Today's U.S. CPI report beat estimates with a 0.3% headline gain that rounded from 0.331%, and a 0.2% core increase that rounded from 0.193%, with firmness that may reflect a small hurricane lift. Goods prices rose 0.5%, thanks to a 2.4% energy price pop and a 0.1% down-tick for food, while services prices rose by 0.3%. New car prices fell 0.2%, but used car prices rose by 2.6%. Despite the core price firmness, the average gain over the past six months is only 0.15%. The data are still tracking a pull-back in headline y/y inflation that should extend into February. Analysts expect November CPI gains of 0.1% for the headline and a 0.2% for the core, though with downside risk, and before a likely big energy-led drop into December. The y/y rise should slip to 2.3% in November, and a number near 2.1% in December and just 1.8% in January and February, after today's bounce to 2.5% in October from 2.3% in September. The core y/y gain should rise to 2.2% in both November and December, as seen in August and September, from 2.1% in October. Analysts expect a core y/y drop to the 2.0%-2.1% range in January and February due to easy comparisons. Analysts now expect October PCE chain price gains of 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core that match the CPI mix.