The Michigan sentiment drop
The Michigan sentiment drop to a downwardly-revised 97.5 (was 98.3) from 98.6 in October and 100.1 in September left Michigan sentiment further below the 14-year high of 101.4 in March, and also now slightly below the peak before that of 98.5 in January of 2017. The 0.8 downward November revision follows downward bumps of 0.4 in October and 0.7 in September, but boosts of 0.9 in August and 0.8 in July. Revisions have averaged Xzero thus far in 2018. Analysts saw a 0.2 average downward revision in final Michigan reports in 2017, but average upward revisions of 0.1 in 2016, 0.4 in 2015, 0.6 in 2014 and 1.8 in 2013. Analysts expect the consumer confidence index to tick up to a fourth consecutive 18-year high, of 138.0, from 137.9 in October, 135.3 in September, and 134.7 in August, versus a previous 17-year high of 130.0 in February. For other November surveys, the IBD/TIPP index slipped to 56.4 from a lofty 57.8 in October but a lower 55.7 in September, versus a 58.0 cycle-high in August. The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has averaged 60.9 in the first two weeks of November, versus monthly average cycle-highs of 60.3 in both September and October, and a 61.6 weekly cycle-high in the last week of September.