Fed Policy Outlook: a 25 bp December rate hike
Fed Policy Outlook: a 25 bp December rate hike has been largely confirmed by the FOMC minutes and Fedspeak. And analysts're still projecting another tightening in March. Though growth appears to be decelerating from the 3.5% clip in Q3, it should remain strong enough into the first half of the year to keep the Fed on on pace to gradually remove accommodation. As many on the Fed have now stressed, the policy course is data dependent, and slowing growth and easing in inflation pressures could keep the Fed on hold in Q1. It's possible the quarterly projections due with the December policy materials could show the dots slip back to two tightenings next year, versus the current three. Of note, remember Chairman Powell will give press conferences after every FOMC meeting beginning in 2019, making every meeting "live." Also, the 2019 voting contingent will be a mix of hawks, George and Rosengren, and doves, Bullard and Evans.