Leerink sees commercial headwinds for Alkermes schizophrenia drug
Alkermes' Enlighten-2 Phase 3 trial for ALKS-3831, which met the co-primary endpoints, is enough to support approval, although the level of benefit was lower than expected, Leerink analyst Marc Goodman told investors yesterday in a research note. The Phase 3 data had "several weak points" when compared to the Phase 2 that could be headwinds for the commercial success of the schizophrenia drug, the analyst writes in a research note partially titled "Now Comes the Hard Part." As a result, Goodman reduced his ALKS-3831 peak non-risk-adjusted sales forecast in 2031 from $650M to $500M, yielding a sum-of-the-parts valuation of $5 per share for the asset. The analyst worries that Alkermes management believes, and is planning to spend as if, ALKS-3831 will be a $1B-plus blockbuster. Goodman keeps a Market Perform rating on Alkermes with a $36 price target.