Canada CPI preview
Canada CPI preview: analysts expect the CPI to fall 0.4% m/m (nsa) in November after the 0.3% gain in October, as a 10% plunge in gasoline prices pulls the CPI lower relative to October. The CPI is seen slowing to a 1.8% y/y pace in November from the 2.4% clip in October, with gasoline prices again the driver. But other factors could partly offset the tumble in gasoline prices -- higher mortgage interest costs and a further climb in airfares featured in October's CPI gain and could have a outsized influence in November. Indeed, airfares remain a wildcard following the change since March in how Statistics Canada deals with airfares. Declining housing prices could provide some offset to rising mortgage costs. Our initial take is that the risk around CPI is tilted to the downside due to gasoline prices. However, as analysts've seen this year, special factors and methodology changes can upset the forecast. Hence, underlying CPI growth remains key for the policy outlook. Analysts expect core CPI growth rates to hold near 2%. For more, view the review.