December vehicle sales are running at a 17.4 M rate
December vehicle sales are running at a 17.4 M rate, with Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Honda and Nissan reporting, following the same pace in November and 17.5 M in October. This translates to an average pace of 17.2 M in 2018, slightly above the 17.1 M in 2017 but below the 17.5 M clip in 2016. A 17.4 M December vehicle sales rate should translate to a 0.1% retail sales rise in December with a flat ex-auto figure. Analysts expect a 0.2% December rise in personal consumption with a 0.3% "real" increase, and a -0.1% reading for the PCE chain price index that matches the expected December CPI estimate. Analysts estimate Q4 growth rates of 5.4% for nominal consumption and 4.0% for "real" consumption, following respective Q3 growth rates of 5.1% and 3.5%, with GDP growth of 3.2% in Q4 after a 3.4% Q3 clip.