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MTN

Vail Resorts

$186.20

-28.37 (-13.22%)

15:14
01/11/19
01/11
15:14
01/11/19
15:14

Vail Resorts price target lowered to $215 from $256 at Stifel

Stifel analyst Brad Boyer noted that Vail Resorts' 18-19 ski season-to-date operating metrics came in well below his forecast and the consensus view, adding that he believes the company "inflicted collateral damage on the stock" by waiting until today to revise its FY19 adjusted EBITDA guidance lower. While admitting management had limited to no visibility into the weather outlook at the time they reported Q1 results on December 7, Boyer said he thinks they likely were "privy to some forward-looking data/metrics that indicated achieving the high end of its prior guidance was not going to be possible." The analyst, who said he finds it hard identifying a compelling short-term catalyst for Vail Resorts, cut his FY19E adjusted EBITDA view to $695M, or 3% below the low end of guidance, and lowered his price target on Vail shares to $215. He keeps a Hold rating on Vail Resorts, which is down 13% to $186 in afternoon trading.

MTN Vail Resorts
$186.20

-28.37 (-13.22%)

10/29/18
BREN
10/29/18
UPGRADE
BREN
Buy
Vail Resorts upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg
12/10/18
LEHM
12/10/18
NO CHANGE
Target $280
LEHM
Overweight
Vail Resorts oversold after Friday's 18% pullback, says Barclays
Barclays analyst Felicia Hendrix attributes the 18% selloff Friday in shares of Vail Resorts to slowing growth in season pass sales, poor early season weather at the company's largest resort and continued investor concern about competition. The analyst, while admitting she does not take issue with any of these concerns, believes the stock is oversold. In 2019, she estimates Vail will generate the strongest EBITDA growth in her coverage universe. Season pass sales growth is slowing given the law of large numbers, not competition, Hendrix tells investors in a research note titled "We Get the Sell Off, But -18%?" The analyst lowered her price target for Vail Resorts to $280 from $290 and keeps an Overweight rating on the name.
01/11/19
BOFA
01/11/19
DOWNGRADE
BOFA
Neutral
Vail Resorts downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill
01/11/19
01/11/19
DOWNGRADE
Target $200

Neutral
Update: Vail Resorts downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill
As previously reported, BofA/Merrill downgraded Vail Resorts to Neutral from Buy and cut its price target to $200 from $260 following lowered guidance. Analyst Shaun Kelley said this was Vail's first major earnings miss not related to snowfall in many years and could represent customer mix and spend issues, and or pricing strategy. Kelley said if customer behavior is changing, it represent further risk to estimates and expects a further deceleration in pass sales growth ahead.

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