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EAF

GrafTech

$12.98

-0.49 (-3.64%)

05:33
01/24/19
01/24
05:33
01/24/19
05:33

Vertical Group sees 30% downside to graphite electrode prices in 2019

Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson says his global graphite electrode supply/demand model indicates 30% downside to prices in 2019. The analyst reiterates a Sell rating on GrafTech while ticking up his price target for the shares to $10 from $9. He expects results from the two Indian graphite electrode firms over the coming weeks to indicate a "much more draconian picture" on the current graphite electrode pricing backdrop.

  • 08

    Feb

EAF GrafTech
$12.98

-0.49 (-3.64%)

08/01/18
VERF
08/01/18
INITIATION
VERF
Buy
GrafTech initiated with a Buy at Vertical Group
As previously reported before the market open, Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson initiated GrafTech with a Buy rating and $29 price target. Johnson noted that GrafTech is a pure-play in the graphite electrode market, and that graphite electrode prices are up ~500% since January 2017. The analyst added that it was "early cycle" for the company and he sees material upside in GrafTech shares through 2018, due to factors including the company's commercial strategy shift toward long-term contracts for two-thirds of its production over the next 3-5 years, and the company's unique vertical integration into petroleum needle coke.
08/06/18
BMOC
08/06/18
NO CHANGE
Target $28
BMOC
Outperform
GrafTech price target raised to $28 from $25 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst David Gagliano raised his price target on GrafTech to $28 after its "strong" Q2 results following its IPO and the likelihood of further growth in 2019, saying the company is "uniquely positioned to benefit from secular tightness in the ultra high power graphite electrode industry". The analyst cites GrafTech's "unique vertical integration in petroleum needle coke, company-specific volume growth, and a balanced mix of contract vs spot volumes" leading to more free cash flows. Gagliano also kept his Outperform rating while raising his FY18 EBITDA outlook to $1.2B from $1.1B.
09/20/18
VERF
09/20/18
NO CHANGE
VERF
Buy
GrafTech selloff brings buying opportunity, says Vertical Group
Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson reiterates his belief that the recent pullback in shares of GrafTech as a buying opportunity. The analyst's attributes at least part of the recent to selloff to Fangda dumping product into the market in China to try to dissuade new Chinese entrants from coming in. However, his channel checks indicate this has stopped. Johnson sees shares of GrafTech approaching $29 by year-end and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
11/12/18
VERF
11/12/18
DOWNGRADE
Target $9
VERF
Sell
GrafTech downgraded to Sell from Buy at Vertical Group
Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson double downgraded GrafTech International to Sell from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $9 from $29. Following discussions with graphite electrode industry experts both in China & the US recently, the analyst now sees "material imminent risk" to the entire space. Johnson says 91kt of capacity that will re-enter the U.S. market over the 2018-2019 timeframe, representing supply growth of over 14% versus estimated demand growth of 3%-4%. Further, the analyst's channel checks suggest some of the largest buyers in the U.S. are looking for significant price concessions when contracts renew in the first half of 2019.

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