Treasury estimates a $365 B Q1 borrowing need
Treasury estimates a $365 B Q1 borrowing need, a little higher than the $356 B forecast from October. This assumes a $320 B March 31 cash balance. The debt managers had projected a $410 B end-of-December balance, though the actual was $402 B, and the shortfall was the major component behind the higher financing estimate. During the April-June quarter, the Treasury is forecasting a $83 B borrowing requirement, assuming a $300 B end-of-June cash balance. The Treasury borrowed $426 B in Q4 2018. Q1 2018 borrowings were $488 B with a $290 B March cash balance. Q2 borrowings totaled $72 B with a $333 B cash balance. Note it used to be the case that Q2 was a paydown due to tax inflows. The borrowing forecasts suggest the debt managers will outline increases in most of the coupons at Wednesday's refunding announcement.