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SPOT

Spotify

$139.21

0.7 (0.51%)

, GRMN

Garmin

$69.90

0.34 (0.49%)

10:54
02/05/19
02/05
10:54
02/05/19
10:54

Fly Intel: What to watch in Spotify earnings report

Spotify (SPOT) is scheduled to report results of its fourth quarter before market open on Wednesday, February 6, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 am ET. What to watch: 1. USER METRICS: Spotify's monthly active users, or MAUs, are a measure of its popularity and growth potential. In the third quarter, Spotify reported 191M MAUs, up 28% year-over-year, and 109M ad-supported MAUs, up 20% year-over-year and 8% quarter-over-quarter. In addition, the company reported that Premium Subscribers grew to 87M, up 40% year-over-year. Watch for updated numbers in the report, as well as management commentary on user engagement. 2. GUIDANCE: With its last report, Spotify guided to Q4 revenue of EUR1.35B-EUR1.55B, up 18%-35% year-over-year. The guidance included a negative impact of approximately EUR30M from foreign exchange rate. The company also forecasted Q4 total MAUs of 199M-206M, up 24%-29% year-over-year, and total Premium Subscribers of 93M-96M, up 30%-36% year-over-year. 3. INITIATIVES AND PARTNERSHIPS: Since the Spotify's direct listing in April, the company has taken on a number of initiatives and formed partnerships to attract consumers and improve user experience. In October, Garmin International (GRMN) announced integration with Spotify on compatible Garmin music watches. Following the announcement, the company launched a Wear OS app and partnered with Fossil (FOSL). In a blog post, Spotify said, "Spotify's new app for smartwatches on Wear OS by Google (GOOG, GOOGL) takes the work out of your hands literally and puts it on your wrist, leaving you free to run, dance, shop, socialize-and control your music at the same time. We've also partnered with Fossil Group to bring the Spotify experience in a standalone app for Wear OS by Google smartwatches to even more users. Starting in November, Spotify will be auto-installed on all Fossil Gen 4 Smartwatches and Michael Kors (KORS) Access Runway Smartwatches." Additionally in October, the company announced its playlist submission feature was officially out of beta saying, "A few months ago, we unveiled a beta feature in the Spotify for Artists tool that gives artists, labels, and teams the ability to share new music directly with our editorial team for playlist consideration. Since the feature became available in July more than 67,000 artists and labels have submitted music." The company also announced in October that it had partner with Google Home to give Spotify Premium for Family account owners in the U.S. a Google Home Mini as part of their subscription. In November, Spotify also announced it was launching in 13 new markets in the Middle East and North Africa bringing its global footprint to 78 markets. The company said, "Spotify is launching in MENA with a fully Arabic user experience, offering music fans the best of local and international music, and a wealth of locally-curated playlists, including Today's Top Arabic Hits, Oriental Chill Vibes, and Arabic EDM. Users in MENA can enjoy Spotify for free, or can subscribe to Spotify Premium for the ultimate Spotify experience."

SPOT

Spotify

$139.21

0.7 (0.51%)

GRMN

Garmin

$69.90

0.34 (0.49%)

FOSL

Fossil

$17.44

0.58 (3.44%)

GOOG

Alphabet

$1,124.48

-7.48 (-0.66%)

GOOGL

Alphabet Class A

$1,132.02

-10.23 (-0.90%)

KORS

Use CPRI

$0.00

(0.00%)

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    Mar

SPOT Spotify
$139.21

0.7 (0.51%)

01/16/19
WELS
01/16/19
NO CHANGE
Target $140
WELS
Market Perform
Spotify price target lowered to $140 from $150 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Robert Coolbrith lowered his price target for Spotify to $140 from $150, while reiterating a Market Perform rating on the shares. The analyst remains cautious on shares as he believes that the company's runway for continued robust growth in Premium Subscribers, particularly in developed markets, may be limited by the highly competitive dynamics of the market and the appeal of high-quality free music streaming products. Additionally, Coolbrith notes that Spotify's relationships with the major music labels, which appeared to have been improving now appear to have been complicated by Spotify's efforts to directly license music from artists, with uncertain consequences for its future pace of gross margin improvement and its ability to obtain license agreements to launch its service in new markets, notably India and Russia.
01/15/19
LEHM
01/15/19
NO CHANGE
Target $200
LEHM
Overweight
Spotify recent share weakness brings opportunity, says Barclays
Barclays analyst Ross Sandler says Spotify Technology shares are down more than most in his coverage universe, likely a result of year-end redemption selling/shorting. He thinks this creates an opportunity. Overall streaming music trends in the company's top markets remain on track in Q4, Sandler tells investors in a research note titled "Washed Out & Fundamentals Solid." Further, in contrast to consensus thinking, the analyst is not expecting a major downside surprise to fiscal 2019 guidance where he have paid subscriber growth in the low 30%'s. He keeps an Overweight rating on Spotify with a $200 price target.
01/07/19
GUGG
01/07/19
DOWNGRADE
Target $120
GUGG
Neutral
Guggenheim says Spotify expectations too high, downgrades to Neutral
As previously reported, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris downgraded Spotify to Neutral from Buy citing what he sees as a combination of high consensus growth expectations and greater investor caution toward high-multiple stocks. He believes that the current consensus view for 2019 implies acceleration in both premium and ad supported subscriber growth as well as some anticipation of meaningful gross margin expansion resulting from renewals. However, Morris expects the renewal term disclosures are likely to lack the detail to support a direct positive impact on gross margin, he noted. He lowered his price target on Spotify shares to $120 from $190.
01/07/19
GUGG
01/07/19
DOWNGRADE
GUGG
Neutral
Spotify downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
GRMN Garmin
$69.90

0.34 (0.49%)

09/20/18
LBOW
09/20/18
NO CHANGE
Target $75
LBOW
Buy
Garmin wearables segment to top estimates in Q3, says Longbow
Longbow analyst Joe Wittine raised his Garmin price target to $75 from $72 and kept his Buy rating, saying his sell-through indicators suggest that the company's wearables sales will exceed consensus forecasts. The analyst is positive on Garmin's Fitness segment, raising his forecast based on the web search data in the quarter, and also sees the Outdoor segment results above the Street in spite of the channel fill timing related trim. Wittine believes that Garmin can deliver sales and earnings beats through 2019 thanks to "peak ADS-B installs, further expansion in advanced wearables, and some narrowing in Auto declines".
08/27/18
MSCO
08/27/18
INITIATION
Target $20
MSCO
Equal Weight
Sonos initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty started Sonos (SONO) with an Equal Weight rating and $20 price target, stating that she believes timely launches and consumer receptivity to new products will be the most important drivers of earnings growth. She thinks the multiple will contract similar to how Fitbit (FIT) and GoPro's (GPRO) did after their initial product missteps if Sonos' new products fail to meet expectations, but the stock could trade closer to companies such as Logitech (LOGI) and Garmin (GRMN) if new products outperform. Given this wide risk/reward, she would prefer to await evidence of Beam or other new products beating forecasts, Huberty tells investors in her initiation note.
07/19/18
LBOW
07/19/18
NO CHANGE
Target $72
LBOW
Buy
Longbow predicts Q2 updside, guidance raise coming from Garmin
Longbow analyst Joe Wittine said his survey of aftermarket aviation dealers and distributors points to a positive inflection in Q2, driven in large part by ADS-B activity, and he also notes that early "fenix 5 Plus" search data points look good. Given his checks in the aviation and outdoor markets, as well as still-improving indicators for fitness, Wittine expects Q2 sales and EPS upside from Garmin and predicts the company will raise its 2018 guidance. He increased his price target on Garmin shares to $72 from $70 and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.
FOSL Fossil
$17.44

0.58 (3.44%)

07/12/18
KEYB
07/12/18
NO CHANGE
Target $32
KEYB
Overweight
KeyBanc sees concerns on Fossil tariff exposure as 'compelling opportunity'
KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma thinks that concerns on Fossil's tariff exposure present a "compelling near-term trading opportunity." After reviewing the USTR-2018-0026, the most recent list of $200B in annual trade goods subject to a potential 10% ad valorem duty, the analyst has concluded that wrist watches are not included and believes concerns are overdone. Yruma reiterates an Overweight rating and $32 price target on the shares.
06/04/18
KEYB
06/04/18
NO CHANGE
Target $32
KEYB
Overweight
Fossil price target raised to $32 from $25 at KeyBanc
KeyBanc analyst Edward Yruma raised his price target for Fossil to $32 from $25 has he believes the company has turned the corner - a combination of expense reductions, focus on wearables, and a more favorable secular watch environment. Further, the analyst argues that new fashion trends and millennial interest in watches seems to be driving a stabilized watch environment. Yruma reiterates an Overweight rating on the shares.
07/09/18
KEYB
07/09/18
INITIATION
KEYB
Overweight
Fossil initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc
07/10/18
07/10/18
INITIATION

On The Fly: Top five analyst initiations
Catch up on today's top five analyst initiations with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Spotify (SPOT) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer. 2. CME Group (CME) initiated with a Neutral at Compass Point. 3. Weight Watchers (WTW) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc. 4. Fossil (FOSL) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc. 5. Alvarion (ALVR) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman Sachs. This list is just a portion of The Fly's analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
GOOG Alphabet
$1,124.48

-7.48 (-0.66%)

02/05/19
OPCO
02/05/19
NO CHANGE
Target $1435
OPCO
Outperform
Alphabet stock remains attractive on valuation, says Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein reiterates an Outperform rating and $1,435 price target on Alphabet's shares, despite weaker core Google margins on investments in content, cloud and hardware. The analyst believes the stock remains attractive on valuation.
02/05/19
MSCO
02/05/19
NO CHANGE
Target $1500
MSCO
Overweight
Alphabet may need better transparency to see shares rise, says Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak said Alphabet's Q4 report highlights the strength of the company's core and portfolio of assets, though it also reinforces how improved disclosure or transparency may be needed for "material share-price appreciation." A company-wide EBIT miss of 4% compared to consensus was due to a larger than expected Other Bets loss, said Nowak, who noted that he attributes the larger EBIT loss to Other Bets equity compensation programs that are tied to long-term value creation. He also reminded investors that these compensation rewards are tied to long-term asset values appreciating. Nowak, who believes it may take revisions or better disclosure for the market to appreciate that Other Bets are strong and appreciating in value, keeps an Overweight rating and $1,500 price target on Alphabet shares.
02/05/19
UBSW
02/05/19
NO CHANGE
Target $1420
UBSW
Buy
Alphabet produced strong revenues against slowdown fears, says UBS
UBS analyst Eric Sheridan said Alphabet produced solid revenue growth against fears of a slowdown and macro impact to digital advertising. He noted operating income margin volatility might detract from the revenue story but he sees investors better understanding the need for investment. He also said signals of moderating headcount and capex should point to relief from recent volatility. Sheridan reiterated his Buy rating and raised his price target to $1,420 from $1,400 on Alphabet shares.
02/05/19
DBAB
02/05/19
NO CHANGE
Target $1380
DBAB
Buy
Alphabet price target raised to $1,380 from $1,300 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Lloyd Walmsley raised his price target for Alphabet to $1,380 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following last night's Q4 results. Alphabet reported a mixed quarter, with Sites revenue excluding currency modestly ahead of estimates but disappointing operating income, weighed down in part by unusual compensation linked to Other Bets, Walmsley tells investors in a post-earnings research note titled "Strong revs, miss on EBIT; thank u, next." On the positive side, the company reiterated optimism on its ability to sustain sales growth and the expectation that headcount growth would slow modestly in 2019 and capex growth would moderate significantly in 2019, adds the analyst.
GOOGL Alphabet Class A
$1,132.02

-10.23 (-0.90%)

02/05/19
RHCO
02/05/19
NO CHANGE
Target $1350
RHCO
Buy
Alphabet price target lowered to $1,350 from $1,450 at SunTrust
SunTrust analyst Youssef Squali lowered his price target on Alphabet to $1,350 after its "mixed" Q4 results that featured a "strong top line" and lower margins driven by rising expenses. The analyst is keeping his Buy rating however, stating that the company's vore business of Search and especially YouTube are performing at "impressive growth levels', with added support coming from the scaling segments like Cloud, Play, and hardware and emerging ones like Waymo. Squali expects Alphabet to sustain its mid-teen growth over the next several years with a focus on incremental profit and free cash flows, making the stock "an attractive growth story at a compelling valuation".
02/05/19
WELS
02/05/19
NO CHANGE
Target $1300
WELS
Outperform
Wells Fargo remains bullish on Alphabet despite mixed Q4 results
Wells Fargo analyst Robert Coolbrith notes that Alphabet reported mixed Q4 results, with gross revenue of $39.3B and revenue ex-TAC of $31.8B both modestly outperforming his estimates, but significantly higher than expected Other Cost of Revenue and R&D expense driving a 5% operating income miss versus his model. Despite relatively unrestrained expense growth in the quarter, the analyst came away encouraged by management commentary indicating moderating headcount growth and a meaningful deceleration in CapEx growth in 2019. Coolbrith reiterates an Outperform rating and $1,300 price target on the shares.
02/05/19
FBCO
02/05/19
NO CHANGE
Target $1400
FBCO
Outperform
Alphabet price target lowered to $1,400 from $1,450 at Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse analyst Stephen Ju lowered his price target for Alphabet to $1,400 from $1,450 following quarterly results as he increases his revenue, OpEx, and CapEx estimates. The analyst reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares as his thesis remains unchanged, given ongoing monetization improvements in Search through product updates, larger-than-expected contribution from Google's larger non-Search businesses, optionality for value creation from new monetization initiatives such as Maps as well as the eventual commercialization of Google's Other Bets.
02/05/19
BMOC
02/05/19
NO CHANGE
Target $1100
BMOC
Market Perform
Alphabet price target lowered to $1,100 from $1,135 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon lowered his price target on Alphabet to $1,100 and kept his Market Perform rating after its Q4 results, saying the company's margins are trending lower as its revenue mix shifts to lower-margin businesses. The analyst adds that Alphabet's rising expenses related to "Other Bets" have become the latest variable challenging profitability that reinforces his cautious margins view. While he sees Alphabet's sum-of-the-parts valuation as attractive, Salmon contends that it is not yet sufficient to drive a bullish thesis.
KORS Use CPRI
$0.00

(0.00%)

11/16/18
OPCO
11/16/18
DOWNGRADE
OPCO
Perform
Michael Kors downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel re-launched coverage of Michael Kors with a Perform rating vs. Outperform previously. In a research note to investors, Nagel says he is "concerned" that ongoing challenges with inventory management and replenishment at the company's namesake brand and softness within fashion watches will weigh on top-line trends and potentially margins, just as management begins the integration of Versace.
11/16/18
11/16/18
DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades
Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Home Depot (HD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill with analyst Elizabeth Suzuki saying peak growth has passed. 2. J.C. Penney (JCP) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Argus with analyst John Eade saying he anticipates continued losses for the stock for the next two years while also warning that at a current share price below $2, the company is operating with a more elevated risk. 3. Nvidia (NVDA) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley FBR and to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman Sachs. 4. Michael Kors (KORS) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer with analyst Brian Nagel saying he is "concerned" that ongoing challenges with inventory management and replenishment at the company's namesake brand and softness within fashion watches will weigh on top-line trends and potentially margins, just as management begins the integration of Versace. 5. TSMC (TSM) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley while UMC (UMC) was downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
01/02/19
WELS
01/02/19
NO CHANGE
Target $45
WELS
Market Perform
Michael Kors price target lowered to $45 from $50 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow lowered his price target for Michael Kors to $45 from $50, while reiterating a Market Perform rating on the shares. In a research note titled "2019 Retail Outlook report," the analyst says he believes Holiday reads likely slowed post Black Friday, Multinational brands struggled relative to retailers the past several months as concerns around Europe weakness, China uncertainty, a slowdown in tourism and FX pressures are growing, e-commerce meaningfully underperformed Brick and Mortar retail in 2018 as inflated multiples have been hit hard in the face of a painful tech ''unwind'' and choppier fundamentals, 2019 is likely to be worse than 2018 for the space, and Leases are coming onto retailers' balance sheets in 2019, making for worse capital structure optics.
11/16/18
OPCO
11/16/18
DOWNGRADE
OPCO
Perform
Michael Kors downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer

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03/06/13
Barclays

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SFTBF

SoftBank

$0.00

(0.00%)

, UBER

Uber

$34.42

1.18 (3.55%)

06:32
09/17/19
09/17
06:32
09/17/19
06:32
Periodicals
SoftBank backers consider slashing committments to Vision Fund, Bloomberg says »

The biggest backers of…

SFTBF

SoftBank

$0.00

(0.00%)

UBER

Uber

$34.42

1.18 (3.55%)

WE

We Company

$0.00

(0.00%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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SSI

Stage Stores

$0.85

0.0298 (3.63%)

06:32
09/17/19
09/17
06:32
09/17/19
06:32
Hot Stocks
Stage Stores announces plans to convert substantially all stores to off-price »

Stage Stores announced…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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APOG

Apogee Enterprises

$41.18

-0.38 (-0.91%)

06:31
09/17/19
09/17
06:31
09/17/19
06:31
Earnings
Apogee Enterprises reports Q2 EPS 72, consensus 64c »

Reports Q2 revenue…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
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  • 17

    Sep

  • 18

    Sep

  • 23

    Sep

IAC

IAC

$229.23

1.71 (0.75%)

06:30
09/17/19
09/17
06:30
09/17/19
06:30
Initiation
IAC initiated  »

IAC initiated with a Buy…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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  • 10

    Oct

AMRN

Amarin

$17.26

0.55 (3.29%)

, MDCO

The Medicines Co.

$48.74

0.99 (2.07%)

06:29
09/17/19
09/17
06:29
09/17/19
06:29
Recommendations
Citi puts Amarin and Sarepta on top five SMid cap biotech pick list »

Citi analyst Joel Beatty…

AMRN

Amarin

$17.26

0.55 (3.29%)

MDCO

The Medicines Co.

$48.74

0.99 (2.07%)

NERV

Minerva

$8.12

0.12 (1.50%)

SRPT

Sarepta

$87.02

1.01 (1.17%)

ELOX

Eloxx Pharmaceuticals

$6.45

0.1 (1.57%)

NGM

NGM Biopharmaceuticals

$15.85

-0.15 (-0.94%)

PTCT

PTC Therapeutics

$42.99

0.16 (0.37%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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  • 28

    Sep

MRVL

Marvell

$25.39

-0.46 (-1.78%)

06:28
09/17/19
09/17
06:28
09/17/19
06:28
Hot Stocks
SEC says Marvell Technology to pay $5.5M to settle disclosure-related charges »

The Securities and…

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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ANGI

Angi Homeservices

$7.91

-0.075 (-0.94%)

, GOOG

Alphabet

$1,231.36

-8.24 (-0.66%)

06:28
09/17/19
09/17
06:28
09/17/19
06:28
Initiation
Angi Homeservices, Alphabet, Alphabet Class A initiated  »

Angi Homeservices…

ANGI

Angi Homeservices

$7.91

-0.075 (-0.94%)

GOOG

Alphabet

$1,231.36

-8.24 (-0.66%)

GOOGL

Alphabet Class A

$1,231.45

-8.68 (-0.70%)

03/08/13
Wedge Partners
03/08/13
Credit Suisse
03/06/13
Citigroup
03/06/13
Barclays

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  • 24

    Sep

  • 27

    Oct

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