Treasury Market Outlook: pessimism over U.S.-China trade talks
Treasury Market Outlook: pessimism over U.S.-China trade talks has kept a bid in bonds and knocked equities lower. The 10-year Treasury is outperforming, down 2 bps to 2.637%. The 2-year is off 0.8 bps to 2.471%. The JGB dropped 1.8 bps to -0.039%, its lowest level in 2 years. The Bund and Gilt have dipped 0.7 bps and 0.3 bps, respectively, to 0.105% (also the lowest since 2016) and 1.170%. The Nikkei has led the selloff in stocks with a 2.0% plunge, while U.S. futures are down about 0.6%, as is the DAX, with the FTSE 0.2% lower. Comments yesterday that presidents Trump and Xi are unlikely to meet before the March 1 tariff deadline added to investor worries and sent Wall Street tumbling, with fears lingering today. There wasn't much new news overnight, though a bounce in German export data provided some solace on growth concerns. Today's U.S. economic calendar is empty, but there will be some Fedspeak from Bullard and Daly. Earnings feature reports from Cboe Global Markets, and Phillips 66. Data picks up next week with CPI, retail sales, industrial production, the Empire State manufacturing index, JOLTS, and consumer sentiment.