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CBAY

CymaBay

$10.29

0.325 (3.26%)

, ICPT

Intercept

$117.31

6.54 (5.90%)

05:13
02/20/19
02/20
05:13
02/20/19
05:13

'Underwhelming' Intercept data hurts CymaBay bear thesis, says Piper Jaffray

One of the major constituents of the CymaBay Therapeutics (CBAY) bear thesis has been that pricing for Intercept Pharmaceuticals' (ICPT) Ocaliva would get cut significantly with success in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and consequently lower the eventual market opportunity for CymaBay's seladelapar in primary biliary cholangitis, Piper Jaffray analyst Tyler Van Buren tells investors in a research note. The analyst, however, believes Intercept's Ocaliva data in NASH yesterday was "underwhelming" as the "fibrosis improvement was mild, no significant effect on NASH was observed, and worrisome safety and tolerability issues remain." Questions regarding the commercial viability of Ocaliva in NASH are now likely to persist, says Van Buren. He now believes Intercept will have to target the most severe patients, "significantly narrowing" the drug's addressable population. This should lead to more stable Ocaliva pricing than many currently assume and keep seladelpar's $750M-plus market opportunity in PBC "largely" intact, contends the analyst. Bottom line is that a major constituent of the CymaBay bear thesis has now been removed, he writes. Van Buren keeps an Overweight rating on the shares with a $30 price target. CymaBay Therapeutics closed yesterday up 34c to $10.29.

CBAY

CymaBay

$10.29

0.325 (3.26%)

ICPT

Intercept

$117.31

6.54 (5.90%)

  • 18

    May

CBAY CymaBay
$10.29

0.325 (3.26%)

11/14/18
PIPR
11/14/18
NO CHANGE
Target $30
PIPR
Overweight
CymaBay data show superior efficacy to Intercept's, says Piper Jaffray
The additional detail provided by CymaBay (CBAY) yesterday via the 52-week analysis of seladelpar in 34 patients "was indeed solid highlighting a superior efficacy and safety profile" relative to Intercept's (ICPT) Ocaliva, Piper Jaffray analyst Tyler Van Buren tells investors in a research note. The data suggest that the ongoing Phase III Enhance study is highly likely to be successful, contends the analyst. He points out that that despite the "clean dataset," some are poking at a numerical increase in bilirubin levels in the 10mg arm. The analyst, however, believes this is clinically insignificant. Van Buren continues to recommend that investors purchase CymaBay shares, believing they are undervalued on the primary biliary cholangitis program alone. He keeps an Overweight rating on the name with a $30 price target.
02/01/19
CANT
02/01/19
NO CHANGE
Target $20
CANT
Overweight
CymaBay price target raised to $20 from $17 at Cantor Fitzgerald
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eliana Merle raised her price target for CymaBay Therapeutics to $20 saying her channel checks suggest seladelpar's "strong profile" in primary biliary cholangitis has the potential to grow the market "significantly" from where it is today. She thinks CymaBay's opportunity in PBC alone should justify upside to the stock. Further, Merle sees further potential for seladelpar with a Q2 Phase 2b nonalcoholic steatohepatitis proof of concept readout, which she notes could be a much larger opportunity for seladelpar if successful. The analyst reiterates an Overweight rating on CymaBay.
02/05/19
RILY
02/05/19
INITIATION
Target $9
RILY
Neutral
CymaBay initiated with a Neutral at B. Riley FBR
B. Riley FBR analyst Mayank Mamtani started CymaBay Therapeutics with a Neutral rating and $9 price target.
02/06/19
02/06/19
INITIATION

Fly Intel: Top five analyst initiations
Catch up on today's top five analyst initiations with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Nasdaq (NDAQ) initiated with a Buy at Argus. 2. Marinus Pharmaceuticals (MRNS) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink. 3. PolyOne (POL) initiated with a Buy at Buckingham. 4. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie. 5. CymaBay (CBAY) initiated with a Neutral at B. Riley FBR.This list is just a portion of The Fly's analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.
ICPT Intercept
$117.31

6.54 (5.90%)

02/19/19
RILY
02/19/19
NO CHANGE
Target $155
RILY
Buy
Intercept fibrosis endpoint 'most meaningful' to regulators, says B. Riley FBR
B. Riley FBR analyst Mayank Mamtani said after Intercept reported results from the Phase 3 REGENERATE trial in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis that he was most encouraged by the doubling of drug effect on the fibrosis endpoint with a high statistical significance and "relatively clean" safety profile. The analyst, who reiterated his view that the fibrosis endpoint is the most clinically meaningful endpoint in the eyes of the regulators and payers globally, keeps a Buy rating and $155 price target on Intercept shares.
02/19/19
OPCO
02/19/19
NO CHANGE
Target $175
OPCO
Outperform
Intercept price target raised to $175 from $140 at Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer analyst Jay Olson said he is encouraged by the results of Phase 3 REGENERATE study of OCA in NASH and believes that fibrosis improvement should support FDA registration. Following the data report, Olson increased his potential for success odds to 90% from 75% for OCA in NASH and raised his price target on Intercept shares to $175 while keeping an Outperform rating on the stock.
02/19/19
WEDB
02/19/19
NO CHANGE
Target $248
WEDB
Outperform
Intercept price target raised to $248 from $220 at Wedbush
02/19/19
GSCO
02/19/19
NO CHANGE
GSCO
Intercept's Ocaliva likely first FDA approved therapy in NASH, says Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter notes that Intercept reported positive top-line Ocaliva Phase 3 REGENERATE 72-week liver biopsy results in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. The results confirmed activity of Ocaliva and position the drug to likely be the first FDA approved therapy in NASH, the analyst contends. Richter expects the stock to trade up 50%-plus followed by M&A optionality. Further, the analyst assumes an Ocaliva U.S./EU NASH launch in 2020, and models WW risk-unadjusted peak sales of $3.7B.

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