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PM

Philip Morris

$85.42

2 (2.40%)

13:49
02/20/19
02/20
13:49
02/20/19
13:49

Philip Morris reaffirms FY19 reported diluted EPS guidance of at least $5.37

Philip Morris International CEO Andre Calantzopoulos, COO Jacek Olczak, and CFO Martin King addressed investors today at the Consumer Analyst Group of New York, or CAGNY, Conference. At the event, the company reaffirmed its 2019 reported diluted EPS guidance, announced on February 7, for 2019 full-year reported diluted earnings per share to be at least $5.37 versus $5.08 in 2018. Excluding an unfavorable currency impact, at then-prevailing rates, of approximately 14c per share, this forecast represents an increase of at least 8% versus adjusted diluted EPS of $5.10 in 2018. This forecast assumes a total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume decline for PMI of approximately 1.5%-2.0% versus an estimated total international industry volume decline, excluding China and the U.S., of approximately 2.5%-3.0%; Currency-neutral net revenue growth of at least 5.0%, which includes an adverse impact of approximately 0.6 points related to the move to highly inflationary accounting in Argentina resulting in the treatment of the U.S. dollar as the functional currency of the company's Argentinian affiliates; An increase in full-year reported operating income margin of at least one percentage point, ex-currency, compared to 2018; Operating cash flow of at least $10.0B, subject to year-end working capital requirements; Capital expenditures of approximately $1.1B; and no share repurchases. FY19 EPS consensus is $5.38.

PM Philip Morris
$85.42

2 (2.40%)

01/14/19
STFL
01/14/19
NO CHANGE
STFL
Buy
Altria, Philip Morris valuations remain 'exceptionally cheap,' says Stifel
Stifel analyst Christopher Growe noted that tobacco stocks have underperformed again in 2018, but he believes 2019 should be a year of improvement in terms of U.S. volumes and regulatory threats. He foresees little action from the FDA, with no menthol ban expected by Growe in 2019, and estimates solid operating fundamentals for the industry, including improving U.S. volumes and approval of iQOS. Growe, who believes the valuations of Altria (MO) and Philip Morris International (PM) "remain exceptionally cheap," keeps Buy ratings on both stocks.
01/22/19
01/22/19
DOWNGRADE
Target $45

Underweight
Altria Group downgraded to Underweight on slower growth at Morgan Stanley
As previously reported, Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman downgraded Altria Group to Underweight from Equal Weight after reducing her forecasts to low-single-digit EPS growth starting in 2019 based on her expectation for accelerated cigarette industry volume declines. She cites shifting demographic trends, category disruption and "harsh FDA regulatory objectives" for her volume decline forecast. However, Kaufman also believes the recent de-rating of Philip Morris (PM) shares is unwarranted, as she contends that global cigarette fundamentals are solid and the company is not subject to many of the risks impacting U.S. tobacco. She cut her price target on Altria shares to $45 from $54 and keeps an Overweight rating on Philip Morris with an $80 price target.
01/29/19
PIPR
01/29/19
UPGRADE
PIPR
Overweight
British American Tobacco upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Lavery upgraded British American Tobacco (BTI) to Overweight with an unchanged price target of GBP 30. The analyst views the stock's valuation as attractive at current levels and feels "modestly more comfortable" with Glo's patent litigation risk in Japan. Philip Morris (PM) is seeking a permanent injunction against British American Tobacco's Glo in Japan, claiming patent infringement on two of its patents, Lavery tells investors in a research note. While Japan appears to have a patent-friendly legal environment, British American "has several methods of defense," says the analyst. Further, he believes any earnings impact is likely modest and that the current valuation "already captures this risk." In addition, Lavery thinks risk of a potential U.S. menthol cigarette ban is already priced in with British American Tobacco shares down 65% in the past year. He also does not see risk to the company's dividend growth.
02/08/19
MSCO
02/08/19
NO CHANGE
Target $80
MSCO
Overweight
Morgan Stanley says Philip Morris share price reaction 'warranted' after Q4 beat
Morgan Stanley analyst Pamela Kaufman said "there were no major surprises" in Philip Morris' Q4 results and she believes the stock's positive share price reaction to the Q4 beat is warranted given strong cigarette fundamentals and a "solid" 2019 outlook. She keeps an Overweight rating and $80 price target on Philip Morris shares.

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